Welcome to the 2023/24 PL Season!

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Prediction Backdrop

The PL is a long season with 2 different transfer windows that can dramatically impact a team. For example, how do you predict Tottenham, when its 50/50 Harry Kane will be on the team. Let’s see what happens between now and 9/1.

Here’s what I’m factoring in, in priority order:

• Managers Matter - Communication between ownership and manager, with a clear vision of the season’s goals is key. Buying and selling players, spending money, fitting players to style and motivation will determine success or failure.

• Talent - Often the highest paid players are so for a reason, but that’s not always the case. Who’s got the best players in the best fit? Talent matters.

• Motivation - Do players want to be there, what are they playing for? Like NCAA March Madness, teams with low expectations playing for a first ever Europe spot like BHA last year can overcome more “talented” teams who are underachieving like Chelsea.

• Intangibles - Are fans already down on the manager or team? Are they starting a new journey in a new league, rebuilding, or hitting the gas? What is their history, can they overcome it?

Here we go…..

Team Analysis - Categorized, Then Alphabetical

(Click on each team name for a link to their full season preview)

Title Contenders (5)

Man City is significant favorites, but there are several teams that have the managers and talent to win it all. They are definitely acting like contenders as clubs are spending, $100M+ each, to make a run.

Arsenal - Ran out of gas last year but did what they needed to do in the off-season to address depth. Declan Rice, Kai Havertz, and Jurrien Timber are great additions. Arteta and ownership seem to be on the same page - all in, expectations are high. Can Mikel take the next step as a manager and knock off his mentor, Pep? The pieces are there.

Liverpool - Last year was a step back to take 2 steps forward. Klopp is a top 5 manager in the world, and they can score. They’ve addressed midfield is a big way spending $150M, but not the back line…..yet. Seems like season rests on captain Virgil Van Dijk returning to form and the defense.

Man City - Champions 3 of last 3 years and 5 of last 6, and winning the “treble” (PL, CL, FA) - what is there to play for? Are they still celebrating? Lost some great players in the off-season, but by design? Will that inject new energy into the club? No club has ever won 4 titles in a row - that will be the rallying cry Pep. How do they not win this thing.

Man United - Really good transfer window and ten Hag seems to be able to make big/tough decisions. Since he’s been there, he’s let Christiano Ronaldo go, got them into the Champions League and spend close to $500M. Is that going to be enough to get them over the hump? Is ten Hag a top 6 manager in this league? I don’t think so.

Newcastle - By their own admission they are ahead of schedule with a 4th place finish and CL spot earned. Spent in the off-season ($150M+) to add depth and they are going to need it to handle the schedule. Eddie Howe brings a lot of energy and has overachieved with lesser talent in the past. They have the spending ability, great home field advantage, top 6 manager and enough talent to win.

The Next Tier

Have most of the pieces. If moves are made and things fall into place, it’s possible they could contend for the Champions League. If they struggle, they could finish around 10^th.

Aston Villa - Unai Emery wins. Last season started with 7 losses in 11 matches, enter Emery and a run to 7^th place and a Europa Conference spot. The off-season was active adding a lot of depth spending over $100M. It will be needed to handle the Europa Conference. Villa feels ahead of schedule, but I would not bet against Emery. If things fall the right way a top 4 finish is possible, I like the odds at +1000. I even like a flyer to win it all at +15,000. Do I think either happen, no.

Brighton - Caught lightening in a bottle last year and hit on all their decisions. GREAT young talent and added some good leadership and experience with the likes of James Milner. Europa League will take a toll. The depth is just OK, and I would expect the youth to struggle. Will need to add more pieces, and they might. A great season would be Champions League, and I like the odds for a top 4 finish at +550 and even a flyer on +5000 to win it all. Do I think either will happen, no. 

Chelsea - Change. Rebuild. It’s what Pochettino excels at. Player turnover has been huge, and it is going to take time for this club to fit all the pieces together. Title Contenders? Not this year. Better than 12th place finish from last year, yes. Expect more energy from this club, and some winning streaks when they start to mesh the new players to Poch’s system.

Tottenham - Harry Kane. If he’s there, they contend for top 5, if not, they don’t. No Kane, and it’s a full rebuild with new manager Ange. Either way, it's a system change for Spurs - from fast break to ball control. It’s really just a MATH equation…..system change plus new manager times great off seasons by other top clubs divided by uncertainty surrounding Kane EQUALS Spurs missing Europe again this year. Unless, of course, Kane gets a new contract from Spurs and hits on all cylinders matchday 1.

The Middle

Should not be near the relegation zone but have too many holes to contend for Europe. Overachieve, and a top 10 finish is possible.

Brentford - The Bees have found the right formula: a great manager very much aligned to Ownership, a data driven approach to identifying talent that seems to be better than any other team, and the ability to strategically spend parlaying the recent success into $75M of acquisitions. What will hold The Bee’s back from a higher finish this year is the suspension of Ivan Toney until January. They will miss his goal scoring ability. 

Palace - Striker Will Zaha walking away definitely hurts, but this club is big enough and Roy Hodgson is good enough that I expect CP to do what they do, find a way to get between 41-49 points and comfortably finish away from relegation and not challenge for a Europe spot. 

West Ham - The only thing keeping the Hammers from being a relegation contender is I suspect they will be spenders as the season goes on and will be able to add talent. Right now, I don’t expect manager David Moyes to be with the team after 10 games, unless WH wins 5-7 times. There is significant disconnect between Moyes and Ownership/Leadership. Owners have said no to requests from Moyes and have sold several players including Declan Rice. I expect WH to have a high-profile new manager and be big players at the winter transfer window.

Relegation Contenders

All three teams promoted to the PL last year stayed up. That is not happening this year. I think this year's relegation battle will come down to 7 teams trying to avoid 18^th & 19^th place, and one team destined for 20^th.

Burnley - Dominating in The Championship last year, with one of the hottest young managers in Vincent Kompany, The Clarets have a lot of momentum heading into the season. They have had some key player losses, but so far have backed them up with quality acquisitions. Lost only 1 time at home all last season, and they will hope to take advantage of that in the PL.

Bournemouth - Surprising managerial change to Andoni Iraola in June, a young manager considered to have high potential whose focus is on attacking. The Cherries were also very active in the off season with some impressive acquisitions indicating they are not content at just surviving in the PL. Bournemouth were projected for relegation by the bettors last year, and this year is no different.

Everton - 33 consecutive years in the PL, but it’s gone down to the wire the last two, this is a fairly large club with a large fan base that is very uncomfortable with the direction of the club. The best thing going for The Toffee’s may be their manger Shawn Dyche, but will he be enough to keep them up this year. The team has not added much this off season and injuries could really cause problems for the club as there is not enough depth.

Forest - The Reds spent big after promotion last season, yet it came down to the wire to avoid relegation. They’ve invested again this year and have their sights set on a Top 10 finish. Steve Cooper is a fan favorite and seems to be well aligned with Ownership, and a year to get acclimated with the new players and the rigors of the PL may be enough to provide a springboard to this season. A tough first 4 games could decide the direction of the season.

Fulham - Prior to last season Fulham had back to back to back promotion relegation seasons. Last season was a nice 10th place finish to earn The Cottagers a second consecutive season. The off season has been average at best - and much of teams success may rest on Aleksandar Mitrovic’s decision to stay at the club or move to Saudi Arabia. If he goes, Fulham will struggle. If he stays, but is not happy Fulham will struggle.. The remaing transfer window to start the season and again mid season will dictate where this team is at heading into the stretch run.

Luton Town - What a great story and run the last 9 years, from level 5 to the PL. In looking into Luton Town, it still feels like a Level 4/5 club. Have you seen Wrexham? Thats Luton town 10 years ago without Rob and Ryan. It will be an interesting home pitch situation for the away clubs with a capacity of 10,000. The Hatters play a different style than the rest of the PL play - lots of direct runs, long balls and early crosses. You might think this small club will be overwhelmed by the presence of the PL, but that didn't seem to be the case the last 9 years.

Sheffield United - Not sure where the goals are going to come from, and they’re not going to spend for a PL level scorer. Do not expect much of a change from the team that finished second in The Championship. I could see SU selling players to make money, take their big payday for being in the PL this year and prepare for another run next season back to the PL from The Championship.

Wolverhampton - In one season went from pushing for Europe to overspending, and having to take a step back this year hoping they can stay up. Ownership sent a letter to season ticket holders basically saying, “we need to watch our spending this year, stick with us”. Then, Julen Lopetegui leaves 5 days before match 1 saying this is not what he was promised from Ownership. Chaos. Wolves are going to need to find a way.

CleanSheet Predictions

If you go by the betting ODDs, here’s the predicted finish.

VOTE! Who you got?