Match Week 5 Preview

EPL Match Week 5 Preview

CS coming to you from Northwest Montana. Two great stops - Glacier National Park and Backslope Brewery.

In Today’s CleanSheet:

• Headlines 📌

• Current Situation📈📉

• Off Island 🏝️ - Champions League

• Best Bets 💰

Headlines 📌

• CS Match of the Week. Man City -125 v Arsenal +340 SUN 8a - A wounded Gunner club coming off a huge win at North London rival Spurs. They could make a huge statement going into Etihad Stadium and getting points. City were surprised to only get a point at home mid-week in the CL. Both had disappointing CL matches, drawing 0-0 each. Arsenal got the best of City last season with a W and a D.

• 8.2. Weekend. 8 Saturday, 2 Sunday.

• Updated Relegation Odds. 4 weeks in and here are the new odds for the three teams to be relegated. Surprising LCFC is still that high knowing they will most likely not have FFP point deductions. Also, the bettors still don’t believe in Forest.

• Premier League Mornings. If you are a fan of the NBC/Peacock coverage of PL you might be interested in heading to Chicago this weekend for this season’s first “fan fest”.

What 2 Look 4 👀- Match Week 5

Top 10 Matchups  🔟🔟

• Man City -125 v Arsenal +340 SUN 1030a - See Above.

• BHA -130 v Forest +340 SUN 8a - Two surprise sides challenging for Europe early in the season. BHA were disappointed to their home draw to Ipswich last week while Forest are still riding the high of winning at Anfield. Nuno has been pushing all the right buttons. Will Hurzeler get his side to respond and back to their winning ways. Either side getting 3 points could move them into the top 4.

  Verifying Their Starts ✅✅✅

• Palace +175 v Man United +140 SAT 1130a - Is Man United the team with 2 wins or 2 losses. Can Palace get their first win. Last time United went to Selhurst Park they were dominated 0-4. In fact, Palace beat United both times they played last season. United had a solid win last week but a trip to London has not been easy for them of late. United have only won 2 of their last 16 matches in London, 4D 10L. Palace are looking for their first win of the season.

• Fulham +180 v Newcastle +135 SAT 9a - Is FFC going to make a run for top 10 this season. Is Newcastle a top 4 club. The Magpies have made the most of their start, their best after 4 matches since 1996, and sit third in the table after getting great play from starters and subs. FFC on the other hand lost mid-week to Championship side Preston North End in a 34-kick shootout and have yet to hit their stride. They will need to turn the tide having 2D 6L in their last 8 with teh Magpies.

• Liverpool -360 v Bournemouth +920 SAT 9a - Can the Reds reestablish their home dominance. Can Bournemouth be consistent in the final 10 minutes of a match. Last week Liverpool were big favorites over a potential relegation side and lost at Anfield. Same goes for this week. A mid-week CL win at AC Milan will help the confidence but expect Slot and Liverpool to dominate a home match and they have not lost back-to-back home matches in the PL since 2021. The Cherries have had an interesting start to the season. All four matches have seen the game swing after 76’, and three of them after 86’. Bournemouth have lost 9 of their last 10 at Anfield and they have only won 2 of their last 29 matches on the road to top four PL sides.

Early Relegation Battle 🪖🪖

• Southampton +120 v Ipswich Town +210 SAT 9a - The Saint’s are looking for their first points of the season and what better opportunity than against fellow promoted side Ipswich. Southampton are favored and the pressure will be on to hold serve at home. The Tractor Boys are looking for points in their third straight match after solid draws with FFC and BHA.

• Leicester City +155 v Everton +170 SAT 9a - Everton, at times, have looked pretty good this season and yet they sit with 4 losses in 4. The Foxes have looked better than expected to start the season but also have yet to win. LCFC have 1W 3D 3L in their last seven against Everton. In 34 PL matches between LCFC and Everton the sides have 16 draws, the highest percentage for any fixgture played more than 30 times.

Derby’s  🏇🏇🏇

• Tottenham -190 v Brentford +450 SAT 9a - The Bee’s play tough at big clubs on the road and this London Derby will be no different but do they have enough after losing Wissa to injury. Spurs and Ange need a win. Can they bounce back after a tough loss to the Gunners. The bookmakers seem to think this will be all Spurs.

• West Ham +235 v Chelsea +104 SAT 630a - Two sides looking to get their sides more comfortable with both their new managers and new players. Through 4 weeks both have had excellent moments and struggled at times. Chelsea are favored but expect this one to be tight at London Stadium.

• Aston Villa -171 Wolves +429 SAT 9a - West Midlands Derby. While not a high-profile Derby, these clubs are only 15 miles apart and have quite a following around Birmingham. Villa had a great win mid-week in the CL and continue their momentum starting the season.

Current Situation 📈📉

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Off Island 🏝️

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE - LEAUGE PHASE

1 Match into the League Phase of the CL and CS still doesn’t have an opinion on if the new format is bad/meh/good. For more on the formant, check out this previous CS Newsletter.

On the positive side

• There are some great matchups you would not get in the old Group Phase, having several “top seed” teams playing each other in this phase.

• I’m looking forward to later matches when the table is established to see who gets the top 8 spots and how teams play for positioning.

On the negative side

• Home-and-Away matches were great. Now, for example, Man City hosts Inter Milan and there is no replay in Milan.

• 4 teams in a group playing each other, it was easy to see the table and understand where teams stood. The new table is too long and who you have left to play matters and is a lot to remember.

One thing is certain - David Raya, Arsenal - is in GREAT form. WHAT.A.SAVE.

Match 1 of 8 Results & Standings. Next matches will be played October 1-2.

• City and Arsenal, the PL’s top 2 teams from last season, both disappoint with 0-0 draws.

• Villa have no trouble with Swiss Champions Young Boys.

• Liverpool concedes an early goal to AC Milan, scored by Christian Pulisic, but turned things around to lead at HT and go on to win.

• City had been rolling in the PL but could not find the net hosting Inter Milan, Italy’s champion. Surprising result and a great point for Inter.

• Arsenal head to beautiful Bergamo, Italy and the injuries seem to show a little.

Standings

As a reminder - the TOP 8 teams, after 8 matches, advance to the “sweet 16”. Positions 9-24 will play a home and away with another team in that range with the winner advancing to play the top 8.

Still not sure I like a table with 36 teams.

Best Bets 💰

Match Week 5 - Winners Only Please

Forest +340 to win at BHA. $20

BHA’s hot start cooled last week with a surprising draw at home to Ipswich. Forest shocked Liverpool in Anfield. Maybe Nuno has figured something out with Forest and maybe Hurzeler will have some hiccups with BHA. CS likes taking the +340.

Liverpool to win -230 v Bournemouth. $138

CS is willing to risk a bigger number with Liverpool again. Do not expect them to lose back to back at Anfield.

Villa -130 to Win v Wolves. $26

Expected this to be a bigger number, and while Wolves will play this tight, Villa are firing on all cylanders and -130 is a small line to lay.

LCFC +155 to Win v Everton. $20

While Everton have looked better in taking two goal leads in back-to-back weeks, they have found ways to lose. Going to take the Foxes at home getting +155 against a team that can’t hold a lead.

City +100 to Win v Arsenal. $50

It is not often lately you get City at even odds. Yes, the Gunners defense will keep them in the match, but the ability to overcome the injuries at the Etihad may be too much to ask.

Newcastle to Win at Fulham +145. $20

Been a good start for the Magpies and they really haven’t hit their stride. FFC has been up and down, but the Magpies are better and will be able to overcome Craven Cottage.