Match Week 4 Preview

EPL Match Week 4 Preview

Co-jo-nes…..

In Today’s CleanSheet:

• Headlines 📌

• Current Situation📈📉

• Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥- American Invasion

• Off Island 🏝️ - Champions League

• Best Bets 💰

Headlines 📌

• CS Match of the Week. Tottenham +200 v Arsenal +130 SUN 8a - TBD - North London Derby (wiki). Great history here. This weekend the Gunners will need to dig deep as they head to Hotspur Stadium shorthanded. SEVEN key players not available - Tomiyasu, Jesus, Merino, Calafiore, Odegaard, Tierney all due to injury and Declan Rice will be sitting as a result of his red card last week. Add to that the pressure Arsenal will face after dropping points when they played BHA last and there is a sense of urgency on getting those points back. Spurs play better at home so far under Ange. Some interesting facts:

  • 4 miles apart the sides have only had EIGHT players ever play for both in each clubs’ history.

  • You may remember late last season when Spurs fans were rooting for their team to LOSE to City so Arsenal would not win the league.

  • The Gunners hold the advantage with 82W 61L and 52D.

  • This matchup has seen more goals scored than any other fixture in the PL.

  • Arsenal fans were asked to say something nice about Spurs, here’s how it went.

  • False Predictions. Been hearing a lot of commentators suggest a Draw for the match, but be cautious. Did You Know:

    • Just 1 of Spurs last 49 PL home matches has ended in a draw, including 22 in a row.

    • Of all the PL stadiums, Hotspur Stadium has seen the fewest % of draws. Just 9%.

    • There have been 101 consecutive matches played at Hotspur Stadium without a 0-0 draw, that’s more than any other stadium has seen.

• 8.2. Weekend. 8 Saturday, 2 Sunday.

• 115 over 14. “Sports trial of the century” is set to begin Monday.

  • It’s been years in the making. Man City face a whopping 115 charges over 14 seasons for allegedly breaking financial rules (FFP).

  • The “independent hearing” is expected to last 10 weeks with a verdict expected in early 2025.

  • Included in the charges are charges that City subverted regulations by failing to provide accurate financials.

  • If you would like more detail, here’s a BBC Sport story that includes “how did we get here”. It really could be turned into a move - here is how the story begins: “In June this year, a Portuguese computer hacker in witness protection named Rui Pinto was reported to have told a conference that he was in possession of “millions of documents” that could be relevant to the City case…..”

  • If they can make a move about Moneyball, that can definitely make a movie about this - One of the most successful clubs in European soccer history…might have been cheating...115 charges…computer hacker…witness protection…United Arab Emirates…Sportswashing…extortion…funneling money through state-controlled companies Etihad and Etisalat. Blockbuster. I think Brad Pitt could play the role of Rui Pinto.

• Always Bayern Chelsea Podcast. CS had a great time on the ABC podcast. Reminds me of the phrase “A face for radio” and “A voice for newsprint”, yet they let me on both! Check them out!

  • X: @AlwaysBayChe

  • YouTube: alwaysbayernchelsea

  • Apple Podcasts: Always Bayern Chelsea

• Full Transparency. CS was offered another “AD” opportunity. This one from a “gummies” company. Turned them down, we will not be promoting THC. But please be on the lookout for future ADs in the Clean Sheet and click on the link to “make an impact on the algorithms”.

What 2 Look 4 👀- Match Week 4

5 Big Home Favorites Laying the Lumber (big odds) 🪵🪵🪵🪵🪵

• Man City -549 v Brentford +1400 SAT 9a - City are unbeaten in 90 minutes at Etihad Stadium since November of 2022. Who was the last team to win, the Bee’s with their current gaffer, Thomas Frank, at the helm. Can Erling Haaland do a hat trick of hat trick? A hat trick would be his third in a row. Probably a lower scoring, closer match than the experts predict unless Haaland takes over.

• Liverpool -280 v Forest +700 SAT 9a - The Reds have yet to allow a goal this season and the leadership and talent of Liverpool seem to be focused on more than just the transition to Slot from Klopp. Forest has surprised so far, unbeaten, although the competition has not been near the top or even middle of the table. A point for Nuno’s side would be a huge statement on the Tree’s ability to move up the table and stay out of the relegation discussion.

• BHA -180 v Ipswich Town +500 SAT 9a - The Seagulls are off to a great start getting a point at Arsenal and handling Man United. Now they get a club they are supposed to beat handily. The Tractor Boys head to the south coast looking to add to the point they took with a draw over FFC.

• Palace -180 v Leicester City +425 SAT 9a - Palace have won more PL matches against the Foxes than any other side they have played, nine. Interestingly, the Foxes have won just 2 of their last 16 matches in the City of London and have conceded a lot of goals in that stretch, 40. So all the numbers, including the big odds, point to Palace. Both sides may have benefited from the international break. Palace had a slow start and Leicester struggled to settle on their roster. Both sides have players that could be the difference to winning and losing, Mateta for Palace and Vardy for Leicester.

• Villa -150 v Everton +400 SAT 1130a - The Toffee’s have lost 8 of their last 10 matches coming out of an international break. Add to that giving away a 2-goal lead last time out and it’s unclear what the mentality will be as they travel to Villa Park. Vill are 7W 3D 0L in their last 10 against Everton.

2 Big Clubs Hit the South Coast 🌊🌊 

• Southampton +340 v Man United -130 SAT 630a - Not sure how Man United does it. The pressure just keeps mounting. Now that challenge is to go in to a recently promoted side and win, convincingly. The Saints have been solid defensively. Expect a low scoring match at St Mary’s Stadium. Will United handle the mounting pressure if the match is in doubt mid-way through the 2H? Best way to handle that pressure, get up early.

• Bournemouth +210 v Chelsea +120 SAT 2p - Sneaky. Did not have the Cherries undefeated after 3 matches and with 4 of their 5 goals coming after 86’. Chealse, on the other hand, has been pretty much following the plan. The talent is there, the new manager is working to piece it together and there is inconsistency and a lack of continuity. The international break may be just what they needed to fill some of those gaps.

2 London Derby’s  🏇🏇

• Tottenham +200 v Arsenal +130 SUN 8a - See Above.

• Fulham +145 v West Ham +185 SAT 9a - The “other” London Derby this weekend. The Cottagers have been steady, like they have been the last couple years. No big streaks either win. West Ham on the other hand have made some big moves lately, a new manager over the summer and a lot of new signings to close the summer transfer window. Lots of pieces for Lopetegui to choose from. While the “other” derby this weekend, this should be a “cracker” of a match.

Trending up, Trending down 👆👇

• Wolves +230 v Newcastle +110 SUN 1030a - Wolve need a win. There’s been a lot of movement with the club. Gary O’Neil has handled all the movement the last year well, but Wolves have struggled out of the gate. Wolves need to take advantage of Molineaux and the Magpies road woes. While Eddie Howe has to be happy with Newcastle’s start, they would be like to overcome their road struggles from last season.

Current Situation 📈📉

Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥

American Invasion - question mark 🤔

Did you know 9 of the 20 PL clubs are owned by American’s. 45%.

But it’s not just the PL. 9 of the 24 Championship (Level 2) clubs are owned by American’s.

That seems pretty significant. But what’s just as interesting? This weekend might be the Highest Profile Americans in the EFL match up and it doesn’t include either of those teams.

On Monday at 2p cst, Tom Brady’s Birmingham City host Reynolds/Mcelhenney’s Wrexham in League One (Level 3). You can lives-stream this match on Paramount+.

Current top 12 of the League One Table

Sportico (Sportico.com) has a good, recent article on this topic.

Off Island 🏝️

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE - LEAUGE PHASE

This year’s Campions League has a new format, discussed in previous CS newsletters. Here is a reminder on how it will work.

CS will not post all 36 team schedules, but you can check them out here.

Match 1 of 8 for each team begins this week - 6 matches each on Tue-Thur.

Pots, and the “difficulty” of the top clubs first match.

Here are the 36 teams sorted into the 4 pots based on their rankings.

Notable Match 1 matches.

• AC Milan (pot2) +280 and Christian Pulisic hosting Liverpool (pot 1) -115 Tuesday.

• Pot 1 v Pot 1 matchup - Man City -190 host Inter Milan+475.

• Villa (pot 4) -120 travel to Young Boys (pot 3) +300.

• Pot 2 v pot 2 matchup - Arsenal -125 travel to Atalanta +300.

• Additional Pot 1 matchups

  • Bayern Munich host Zagreb (pot 3)

  • Ream Madrid host Stuttgart (pot 4)

  • PSG host Girona (pot 4)

  • Dortmund travel to Brugge (pot 2)

  • Leipzig travel to Atletico Madrid (pot 2)

  • Barcelona travel to Monaco (pot 4)

Best Bets 💰

Match Week 4 - Winners Only Please

Laying some bigger lines this week, good idea coming out of a break? We will see.

BHA -280 to win v Ipswich. $112

BHA v Ipswich over 3.5 goals +134. $20

Under new manager Hurzeler the Seagulls hit the ground running with a combination of veteran leadership and energetic youth. Ipswich had a rough schedule and were able to get a home point against FFC. A trip to the south coast will be more than the Tractor Boys can handle, enough so we will lay the extra $. Expect goals.

Liverpool to win -474 v Forest. $190

Liverpool to win via clean sheet +100 v Forest. $20

CS has become a Slot believer, and this veteran team seems to have bigger goals than just having a good transition from Klopp. 3W and 3 clean sheets so far, make it 4.

Villa -200 to Win v Everton. $80

Villa clean sheet v Everton +128. $20

Villa to Win 2-0 v Everton +540. $10

The international break came at a great time for Everton to lick their wounds after giving away their last match against the Cherries, but a couple weeks of extra “practice” is not going to be enough against a solid Villa side at Villa Park. In fact, CS thinks that’s what will happen - a clean sheet - and have made 3 bets to take advantage.

Not laying the big number on all the matches.

Spurs +200 to win v Arsenal. $20

Arsenal are the better side, but are missing 7 players that would factor in. Spurs are much better at home than road. Also, given analysis above in the match of the week - chances are this match is won, not drawn. +200 for Spurs, Yes Please!

LCFC +425 to Win at Palace. $20

The foxes are undervalued, Palace overvalued. Yes, Palace should be favored at home to win but not at -165. This is a value pick, give CS the +425.

Chelsea to win +120 at Bournemouth. $20

Maybe the club that will benefit the most from the international break is Chelsea. More time with Enzo and more time to gel. The Cherries have 2 draws and a 3-goal comeback at Everton. That winless streak ends this weekend.

Newcastle to Win at Wolves AND both teams to score +179. $20

Been a good start for the Magpies. Yes, they play better at home, and yes, they seem to be more defensively focused this season, but Eddie Howe is starting to figure this squad out. Unfortunately for Wolves, they seem to be picking up where they left off late last season, struggling to get consistency. Gary O’Neil will get things figured out for Wolves. Just not yet.

Fulham to Draw v West Ham +170. $20

There needs to be a draw somewhere this weekend and Craven Cottage seems to be the place.