25/26 Match Week 8 Preview

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Check out Off Island 🌴🌴for a special report from CS Correspondent (and subscriber) Paul O’Keeffe reporting from the USMNT friendly against Australia.

Above: USAFL (US Australian Football League) Patron, current Australian Ambassador to the USA and former Australian Prime Minister (2007-2010) Kevin Rudd meet with USAFL co-founders Rich Mann (L) and Paul ‘Plugger’ O’Keeffe (R) and chatted about the weekends national championships. Thanks to Kevin for his continued support of the league AND thanks to Paul for reporting in!

• What 2 Look 4 👀 

• Headlines 📌

• Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥- Carabao Cup

• Off Island 🏝️ - Ryder Cup

• Best Bets 💰

What 2 Look 4 👀- Match Week 8

(reminder - like driving on the other side of the road, in the PL, HOME teams are listed first)

• 7.2.1 Week. 7 Saturday, 2 Sunday, 1 Monday.

Match of the Week 👑

• Palace +121 v Bournemouth +226 SAT 9a - Palace and the Cherries are both surprise top 6 teams in the table this year, but should it be a surprise? Palace have just 1 loss on the season, won the Supporters Shield prior to the season and won the FA Cup final last season. The Cherries finished 9th in the table last season and statistically have been a top team in the EPL, they also have just one loss this season. So these two “non big” clubs continue to perform at a high level. In the last 17 matches, Palace have the edge with 6W 4L 7D and Under 2.5 goals has hit in their last 9 matches.

The city of Liverpool v the city of Manchester 🪿⛵

See Hot Topic 🔥🔥for more on this unique “rivalry”.

• Liverpool -166 v Man United +404 SUN 1030a - NORTHWEST DERBY - Click here for more on the NW Derby. The Red’s have fallen out of the top of the table losing back to back matches after a hot start. Liverpool’s defense has been an issue giving up goals late. Man United have won-lost-won-lost-won in their last 5 and are pretty big underdogs in this Derby. A win could really kick star their season.

• City -251 v Everton +656 SAT 9a - NOT THE NORTHWEST DERBY - Just 2 points separate these sides in the table yet the sentiment from both sides couldn’t be more different. Everton are flying high in their new stadium, with their newish manager after having signed their goalkeeper to a long-term contract. City are 3 spots higher in the table but the sentiment is one of caution as City fans would say they are off to a “slow” start as their long-term manager, Pep, has already made a goalkeeper change. City are unbeaten in the last 16 PL matches against Everton with just 3D. Everton’s last win at the Etihad, 2010.

London Derby’s Home Teams 🏫🏫

• Fulham +488 v Arsenal -187 SUN 1130a - LONDON DERBY (West v North) - The Gunner’s come into Craven Cottage as league leaders. The Cottagers have been below average, and not consistent. Since 2001 the Gunners have won 24 of 36 matches. If they make it 25 of 37 it will most likely be because of their defense they’ve allowed just 3 goals so far.

• West Ham +136 v Brentford -190 MON 2p - LONDON DERBY (East v West) - A change at home for the Hammer’s to jump out of the bottom three and that is exactly what Nuno, West Ham’s new manager (and Forest’s old manager), is focused on doing. The Bee’s have struggled on the road losing all 4 matches this year by a combined score of 3-9. Feels like the Bee’s success rests on earning set pieces and scoring off of those chances.

Toss Ups 🥗🥗🥗🥗

• Burnley +230 v Leeds +126 SAT 9a - Feels like a relegation battle could mean a lot as the season goes along. Pressure will be on the home side to hold serve. Both these Yorkshire clubs have met in the PL and the Championship recently with Leeds getting the better of it with 13W 8L 4D in 25 matches, including 3 wins in the last 4. Both sides have scored just 7 goals on the season while allowing double digits.

• BHA +161 v Newcastle +163 SAT 9a - Crazy stat, Newcastle have allowed just 5 goals on the season but have only scored 6. In fact, just one time has a team scored 3 goals (Liverpool) in a Newcastle match this season. BHA has a similar story. Just one time has a team in BHA matches this season scored 3+goals. BHA got 3 at Chelsea with the help of a red card. BHA has gotten the better of this matchup over the last 16 matches with 6W 2L 8D.

• Tottenham +108 v Villa +235 SUN 8a - Great start to the season for Spurs sitting 3rd in the table while Villa stumbled out of the gates but have clawed their way back to 13th by winning the last 2 matches. Two great managers, Frank for Spurs and Emery for Villa, will have made good use of the Interantional Break to recharge their PL run. Villa have won 4 of the last 6 matches, prior to that they had only won 4 in 30 against Spurs. There have been no draws in this one over the last 20 matches.

• Sunderland +146 v Wolves +213 SAT 9a - Great start by the Black Cats, in particular at the Stadium of Light, where they have 2W 1D to start the season and are making a great case for a side looking to stay up after their recent promotion. Wolves have looked lost, no wins so far this year, but have drawn their last 2. Sunderland has 4W 3L 5D in their last 12 against Wolves. Wolves have not won at the Stadium of Light since a 1-0 win in 2012.

Ange Watch 🐨

• Forest +279 v Chelsea -109 SAT 630a - Been a tough start for Ange Postecoglou at Forest, no wins yet. The Blues are coming off a huge win against Liverpool last time out. Ange will be hoping the International Break gave him enough time with his team to “coach them up”. Often in sports it’s not just who you play but when you play them. Blues probably would’ve preferred to play this one right after the last. Will be tough on the road against a side that had time to regroup.

Headlines 📌

• BEHIND the Table. A couple observations on teams in the table and their schedule.

  • BURNLEY - Was a brutal opening 7 match schedule. 4 road games against top of table teams and Liverpool at home. The Clarets have a chance to right the ship after the break with Leeds, Wolves, and West Ham in the next 4 matches.

  • Man United - The next 5 matches - 2 home and 3 road - could really shape Untied’s year. It’s a tough stretch yet if United is returning to UNITED they should expect to take 9-12 points. If they do, the schedule eases a little and you could see United back in the top 4. If they don’t, and they struggle against the easier part of their schedule you could see significant change at Old Trafford.

  • Villa - Tough stretch for Villa with both Europa League matches and Tottenham, Man City, Liverpool and Bournemouth on the schedule.

  • Arsenal - Gunners now sit top of table and the PL schedule is a little lighter coming up with Fulham, Palace, Burnley and Sunderland. Two Champions League matches will test their depth.

• Replay (VAR) Sucks. We’ve talked about it before, as-is, VAR is net-net a loser. Either get rid of it altogether OR change the process to include a review time limit. If you can’t look at a play with your eyes at regular speed and determine if an obvious error occurred within 30-60s, then call on the field stands. Currently drawing lines for off sides, looking for “intention” of an elbow or taking 100 angles to determine handball is not working. The cost of “getting it right” is more than the cost to losing the excitement and flow of the game.

• Replay Part 2. at the 2025 U20 World Cup they are testing “Video Support Challenge Cards” which allow teams to request VAR during games.

• Harry Kane Rumor. BBC Sport is reporting Tottenham are preparing a “blockbuster” move to bring the Striker back from Bayern Munich next summer. We will see.

Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥

Derby’s

DERBY - A highly charged match between two rival teams from the same city, region or local area where the competition is intensified by geography, historical tension, cultural differences, and fan loyalties. For more on Derby’s click here for last seasons MW20 Preview of the CS.

The Northwest Derby between Liverpool and Man United is considered one of the world’s biggest Derby’s and that match will be played this weekend. Interestingly, the Merseyside Derby between Liverpool and Everton is considered a top 10 Derby as well. Here’s a great read on the rivalry (90min.com)

Maybe the top Derby in the world - El Clasico between Real Madrid and Barcelona due to the DEEP political and cultural tension between Spanish nationalism and Catalan independence. For more on El Classico check out the MW 8 Recap from last season CS.

So here’s the question.

Man City plays Everton this weekend, why is this match NOT considered a Derby at all?

CS Answer - historically, these clubs did not play meaningful games, were not adversaries culturally and did not have a high level of competitive overlap.

Off Island 🏝️

International Break

CS Correspondent Plugger O’Keeffe checks in from Denver.

• The USMNT got a draw and a win against teams that have already qualified for the World Cup. This tampers down the negativity fans have been throwing at Poch. Maybe the successful soccer manager knows what he is doing.

• USMNT 1-1- Ecuador, Austin - Play of the Match.

• USMNT 2-1 Australia, Denver - Play of the Match.

World Cup

• 28 down, 20 to go.

• The DRAW of who teams will play, what groups each team will be in, is 50 days away.

Best Bets 💰

Season - Up $32

• MW1 ($14)

• MW2 $183

• MW3 ($10)

• MW4 $43

• MW5 ($127)

• MW6 ($75)

• MW7 $32

CleanSheet Season Gains/Losses: Starting Balance $1000. Current Standing $1,032.

Palace and Bournemouth Under 2.5 -116. $23

Historically this one goes under and coming out of a break will mean stronger defense.

Arsenal and Fulham Under 2.5 -116. $23

FFC will keep it close at home and Gunners could keep a CS.

BHA and Newcastle Under -106. $21

Until Newcastle starts giving up goals, will be taking the under with them.

Tottenham Villa Over 2.5 goals -128. $26

These sides typically score goals against each other and although Spurs have allowed only 5 this season expect Villa to continue their scoring run in matches and Spurs to find the net as well.

West Ham to Win v Brentford +142. $20

Nuno will use the international break to keep the Bee’s from scoring off of set pieces and will get the Hammers a home win.

Sunderland to Win v Wolves +143. $20

Black Cats at Stadium of Light against a bottom side equals win.

Arsenal to keep a Clean Sheet v Newcastle +171. $20

Gunners and Arteta will focus defensively on the road.