Match Week 20 Preview

HomeGrown

If you get the chance, go see the Zac Brown Band in concert.

In Today’s CleanSheet:

• Headlines 📌

• Current Situation📈📉

• Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥- Transfer Window

• Off Island 🏝️ - Biggest Derby in the World

• Best Bets 💰

Headlines 📌

• CS Match of the Week. Liverpool -400 v Man United +1000 SUN 1030a - Northwest Derby - Players and fans consider this rivalry bigger than their in-city rivalries (Everton/City) and this is arguably one of the biggest in the world. Liverpool huge favorites in this one.

  • The two clubs are the most successful in the history of English soccer - 39 League Titles, 21 FA Cups, 9 Champions Leagues, etc.

  • Both clubs have the same number of trophies - 68.

  • United lead the series - 83W 72L 60D.

  • Liverpool beat United at Old Trafford 3-0 earlier this season.

  • No player has been transferred between the clubs since 1964.

  • See the Hot Topic Section for more on the Derby.

• 7.2.1 Weekend. 7 Saturday, 2 Sunday, 1 Monday.

• Gunners on Target. Brentford 1-3 Arsenal. Mbeumo put the Bee’s up at 13’ and it looked like they were back on track to scoring and winning at home, but then this sequence happened - looked like Bee’s were going up 2, then Gabriel Jesus scored for the Gunners at 29’. The Gunners dominated the match the rest of the way. Across the 4 clubs he’s managed his record is 45W 46D 87L.

• Sacked. Wayne Rooney was sacked by Plymouth Argyle who sit last in the Championship. The former Man United great has not had near the same results as a manager as he did as a player. To his credit, he did not take his buyout, he was not in it for the money.

• Most in the PL. Newcastle and Tottenham have played 59 times in the PL. They have scored 189 times, third most in the PL. They have played 59 times, the most meetings to never have a match finish 0-0.

• Calendar Year. If you only look at the PL from a calendar standpoint, here are the top 10 teams in 2024.

What 2 Look 4 👀- Match Week 20

Derby’s 🏇🏇

• Palace +270 v Chelsea -110 SAT 9a - London Derby (South v West) - Interesting trip for a Chelsea side who have seen their scoring dry up the last 3 matches, just 1 goal in that stretch. Meanwhile, aside from a pounding from Arsenal the Eagles have 3W and 4D in their last 8.

• Liverpool +120 v Man United +210 SUN 1030a - Northwest Derby - See Above.

• Aston Villa -300 v Leicester City +800 SAT 9a - 45 miles separate the two cities. A disappointing point last time out at home for the Villains as the Foxes limp in and just hope to be in it for a point late.

• Wolves +150 v Forest +130 MON 2p - 45 miles separate the two cities. So far so good for Wolves new manager Vitor Pereira who has 2 wins and a draw in his 3 matches but will be a different assignment as the Tree’s bring a strong D.

Home Fav’s 🏠🏠🏠

• Man City -319 v West Ham +750 SAT 9a - City played just well enough to beat LCFC to stop their win drought, expect more of the same when the struggling Hammers get to the Etihad.

• Bournemouth -135 v Everton +360 SAT 9a - Been 3 draws in their last 4 for the Cherries and the Toffee’s. Earlier this season Everton led 2-0 at the 86’, only to lose 2-3.

• Fulham -180 v Ipswich Town +475 SUN 8a - Can the Tractor boys get back-to-back wins against West London clubs?

Road Fav’s 🛣️🛣️🛣️

• Tottenham +190 v Newcastle +120 SAT630a - Magpies have figured things out and are pushing for Europe. Spurs at limping into the transfer window and need to figure out their defense if they want to have a chance at Europe. These two sides have NEVER drawn 0-0.

• BHA +210 v Arsenal -130 SAT 1130a - Good point for the Seagulls at Villa but hosting the Gunners will be a challenge.

• Southampton +165 v Brentford +150 SAT 9a - Bee’s have been struggling lately, Saints all year. Can one side take all three points.

Current Situation 📈📉

Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥

Transfer Window

You may have heard rumors that Real Madrid is trying to acquire one of Liverpool’s best players, Trent Alexander-Arnold. Liverpool supposedly said TAA is not for sale in January, but rumors say he may be on the move in the summer window.

While it seems self-explanatory, let’s set out the basics for those interested, of how the transfer window works.

• Window. 2X per year, January (1 month) and June/July (2 months), global teams can buy, sell, loan or release players.

• Squad List - must be submitted at the end of each window

  • 25 players can be named on the full squad

  • Can contain NO MORE THAN 17 players who do not meet Homegown Player criteria.

  • 8 of those players MUST BE HOMEGROWN - meaning - the player must be on an English team for 3+ years before the age of 21, irrespective of nationality or age.

  • In addition to the 25 on the list, you can list an unlimited number of “academy” players and under 21 players. For this season any player born before January 1, 2003 is considered U-21.

• No Tampering. Clubs can talk to agents outside the window, just not sign them.

• Transfer Fee. Unlike the NFL, to acquire a player means you are PAYING their current club to have the rights to the player. You also have to agree on the player salary.

• Free Agents. For players currently not under contract, clubs can sign them outside the window and since they are free agents, there is no signing “fee”. However, the player may need to wait to join the club at the end of the next window, when the Squad List is updated.

• Consistency. FIFA sets out the tow annual transfer periods for transfers but each county sets the exact timing for their leagues. For example, this year the PL January window closes January 31 but Italy closes February 3.

Expect some movement and several of the PL clubs looking to strengthen their side for a run towards Europe, away from relegation and/or to avoid financial fair play infractions.

Off Island 🏝️

Biggest Derby in the World - Northwest Derby

OK, so maybe it’s not the “biggest” - but it is arguably the biggest. And this is primarily an English Premier League newsletter - so…

• Arguably (Great short read 90min.com) the #1 rivalry in the history of the PL. Separated by 35 miles, both sides have “in city rivals” - Everton for Liverpool and City for United - yet this rivalry goes beyond soccer. The Reds dominated in the 70’s and 80’s, United in the 90’s and 2000’s. Together they have won 39 league titles, 20 FA Cups and 9 European/Champions League Cups. United lead the series with 82 Wins, Liverpool has 71 Wins. There have been 58 Draws.

• Beyond Soccer - Manchester dominated the economic and industrial development through the 18^th century but in the 19^th and 20^th century Liverpool grew to supersede Manchester largely from its port and became known as the British Empire’s second city.

• A big point of contention came with the construction of the Manchester Ship Canal in 1894. The Canal, funded by Manchester merchants and opposed by Liverpool politicians, generated significant competition and ill will among the cities for economic, trade and business reasons.

• You might notice in both Man United and Man City’s crests a ship is included, directly related to the Canal.

If the NW Derby isn’t the “biggest” derby in the world, what is?

Probably one of the 4 below…..

Superclasico (Argentina) - River Plate v Boca Juniors. Buenos Aires - River Plate is more “middle-class suburbs” whereas Boca are “working-class” from the dockland area of the city. The word “clasico” meaning derby originated in Argentina. It get’s personal - Boca fans refer to River fans as “gallinas” (chickens) while River fans refer to Boca fans as “los chanchitos” (little pigs) - given their stadium is located in a very poor area and smells most of the time from the polluted river.

Old Firm (Scotland) - Celtic v Rangers. Both in Glasglow, Scotland - this is Catholic v Protestant, Irish Scots v British, Republican v Loyalists, Socialists v Conservatives. Since 1888, this rivalry goes way beyond soccer.

El Clasico (Spain) - Real Madrid v Barcelona. When these two play more than 700M people tune in worldwide. This pits the capital of Spain (Madrid) versus the “capital” of Catalan Nationalism.

Intercontinental Derby (Turkey) - Fenerbahce v Galatasaray. Istanbul - Among other things, Istanbul is famous for being a city that sits on two continents. The city is separated by the Bosporus River that connect the Black Sea to the North and the Sea of Marmara that leads to the Mediterranean Sea to the South. Fenerbahçe sits in the Asian side of the city, Galatasaray sits in the Europe side.

Best Bets 💰

Welcome to 2H of Best Bet’s where we will now work from a replenished $ roll.

Match Week 20 - Happy New Year

Newcastle Spurs O3.5 goals -125. $25

Spurs defense is struggling, Magpies have been scoring. The game will open up and Spurs will also find the net.

Everton to Draw at Bournemouth +270. $20

Everton blew a 2-goal lead at Goodison Park earlier this season and match up well with the Cherries. Taking a low scoring draw here.

Arsenal to Win at BHA and O2.5 goals scored +141. $20

Like the Gunners to win but instead of laying -125 going to bet they win 3+-0 or 2-1 and get better odds.

Palace to Win v Chelsea +270. $20

The Blues have been struggling to score of late and Palace are playing much better than the start of the season. This is a bet taking + odds that Chelsea is not playing their best soccer and home field will benefit Palace.

Forest to Win at Wolves +O3.5 +135. $20

Yes Wolves have not lost in 3 matches but Forest has made CS believers and expect Nuno’s side to keep it rolling at Molineaux.