Mini-January-Break Hot Topic

In Today’s CleanSheet:

• SoccerTopic ⚽🥅

• HotTopic 🔥🔥🔥

SoccerTopic ⚽🥅

Manager. Gaffer. Boss. Coach. SOB.

CS Premise.

Elite Soccer Managers make the biggest difference for their teams than managers in any other sport.

In 2019 the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference hosted a discussion on the topic How Much Do Coaches Matter. You can read the paper here.

Some quick takeaways:

• 20-30% - Across all sports the estimate for a coach’s impact according to this paper.

• RIFLE - The method used - Randomization Inference for Leadership Effects. Has been used for various purposes in and out of sports. Attempts to go beyond “succession” analysis.

• Another One. According to a different study by “scholars” at the Harris School of Public Policy, coaches account for 20 percent to 30 percent of the variation in team outcomes.

• 8%. A NYT study in 2021 claims top level coaches can have an 8% higher impact over average coaches. No link b/c I’m not a fan of the NYT and you need a subscription.

So, why are Gaffers of high-end clubs the most influential - let’s start a discussion - without “scientific” data.

4 key challenges differentiate Gaffers from MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAA etc. coaches.

• Language - truly worldwide players. MLB may have a couple non-Spanish or English speakers, but this is the norm for European Soccer and requires a bigger lift by the gaffer.

• Transfer Windows & Buying the Groceries - Being on the same page as ownership, having the right player evaluation and managing the Transfer Windows. Yes, all managers require this and must manager through trades - but multiple transfers, loans, etc. - no, not the same.

• Year Round & Player Sharing - Having to manage multiple in parallel leagues and tournaments (European, FA, Carabao, etc) brings added issues. So does having to “share” your best players with their National Teams. The complexity of managing the physical and mental aspects of your team goes way beyond the NFL’s OTA’s or MLB Spring Training. Add to this the “off-season” showcases that involve international travel.

• Tenure - The average tenure of an NFL coach is ~4+ years, MLB 3.7y, NHL 3.5y, NBA 3.2y. The average tenure of a European Soccer Coach is 1.3 years. (sportsbettingdime.com) It seems a change to the right manager fit can positively impact a club in short periods of time. Hire the wrong manager - and you can usually tell relatively quickly.

Aside from these 4 challenges, Gaffers have similar challenges as all Managers.

As this discussion as a backdrop - Here is a list of each current PL Manager in order of tenure, a link to their wiki page and a link to a short interview to get a feel of who they are.

Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥

You can check out the results of the FA Cup this weekend here. (BBC Sport)

Couple quick takeaways

• The Stones. Maidstone United is the “lowest league” club remaining, Tier 6, and they BEAT Stevenage (1) to advance to the round of 32. The Goal. (X). The Celebration (X).

• This was the round of 64. Until you reach the semi-finals, if a game ends in a tie there will be a replay at the away team's home field. There were 7 Ties of the 32 matches that will be replayed.

• Wrexham (League 2) beat Shrewsbury Town (League 1) 1-0 on this goal. (X)

• Bristol City drew with West Ham to force a replay. Fans were excited! (X)

• 4th round draw has been done - some key matchups.

  • Tottenham v Man City

  • Chelsea v Aston Villa

  • Fulham v Newcastle

  • Sheffield United v BHA

  • Blackburn v Wrexham

  • Ipswich v Maidstone United