Match Week 9 Recap

EPL Match Week 9 - CleanSheet Recap

In Today’s CleanSheet:

• Headlines 📌

• Current Situation📈📉

• Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥- xG

• Off Island 🏝️ - European Competitions

• Best Bets 💰

Headlines 📌

• Best Result of Match Week 9. 4-1 Villa over West Ham. Unai Emery has Villa firing on all cylinders having scored the second most goals in the PL this season (23), 1 behind Newcastle. After a rough opening match, a 1-5 loss at Newcastle, Villa’s wins have been big: 4-0, 3-1, 3-1, 1-0, 6-1, and 4-1. West Ham had their chances when they narrowed the match 2-1 but Villa’s Douglas Luiz and Ollie Watkins saw to it to secure the W and the 11^th consecutive win at home. Watkins goal, top of net! (20s on X)

• Chelsea is BACK!….wait….are they? Chelsea looked dominant against The Gunners leading 2-0 early in the second half. As talked about in previous CS’s Chelsea’s big spending was yielding very little, they looked dysfunctional. However, there is hope Poch has gotten the train moving, just like he did when he took over Spurs. For 90% of the match, it looked like the train had left the station, that is until Arsenal scored 2 late goals to rally for a point. In the end, a good point for Arsenal and a mostly good sign for Chelsea.

• Biggest Disappointment. Bournemouth. A great chance to get their first win of the season at home against Wolves going up 1-0 early only to make mistake after mistake and watch it slip away. See below for more on the meaning of this match.

• Ange Postecoglou. Set the record for the MOST POINTS by a PL manager in their first 9 matches with 23. New manager, no Harry Kane - no matter - Spurs are humming. Anyone interested in Spurs to win the league at +1000?

• 4 Red Cards. Everton, Burnley, Bournemouth and Man City all received red cards this weekend. 3 of those were for second yellows, 1 was direct. That is 23 red cards for the season, and well on pace to go over the average of 50 per season. Liverpool matches have seen 5 red cards in 9, 4 to Liverpool 1 to Everton.

• Still Winless. 2 teams have yet to win. Bournemouth, Sheffield United.

Biggest Story of the Weekend

🎵Hi Ho Wolverhampton! Wolves went into Bournemouth and beat The Cherries 2-1 on a late goal by Sasa Kalajdzic (30s on X). Wolves went down 0-1 in the 17^th minute, and it stayed that way into the second half until Matheus Cunha tied it up right out of the locker room. A red card to Lewis Cook (X) for head butting Hwang Hee-chan gave Wolves the upper hand and Bournemouth is now winless in 9.

But why is this a Big Story?

• Scene 1. Let’s go back to the end of last season. Bournemouth were not playing well, had just lost 9-0 to Liverpool and were on the path to relegation. They then hired Gary O’Neil as manager and he turned things around, beating Liverpool and Tottenham later that year and keeping The Cherries up with games to spare. Then during the summer, shockingly (3min article), The Cherries fired O’Neil and hired current manager Andoni Iraola.

• Scene 2. Wolverhampton - In 2021 Wolves were pushing for a Europe competition and ownership were spending and expanding their vision to becoming a global club. However, the teams spending started to create a problem with Financial Fair Play rules and ownership had to take a step back this year in player salaries and hope they could stay up and get back to spending next year. Ownership sent a letter to season ticket holders basically saying, “we need to watch our spending this year, stick with us”. Then, manager Julen Lopetegui left 5 days before Match 1 saying this is not what he was promised from Ownership. Chaos. Who do they hire? Gary O’Neil. And with that Wolves season odds put them squarely in the relegation zone.

Check out this Wolverhampton overview at the CleanSheet.

Current Situation 📈📉

Clean Sheets Counter

Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥

xG - Expected Goals.

So much of today’s sports world is focused on “analytics”, and as the CS has talked about in the past there are lies, damn lies and statistics - in this case data. Name a topic and what you want to hear, and someone can run a “study” an get you that result, you just need the right algorithms. So, while xG are interesting - they are only one data point and need to be considered as such. That being said, sports books are using the information, pundits are talking about it, and we know they wouldn’t if the data didn't help them in some ways.

As the topic becomes more and more part of the narrative - here is a simple explanation with links to deeper dives if you are interested.

xG - the probability that a shot will result in a goal based on the characteristics of that shot.

FINE PRINT: xG is only measuring CHANCE QUALITY and not expected outcome of a game. Also, not all goalkeepers are created equal. What if your team has played against all the best keepers, should your goals be fewer even with great chances? Does the algorithm account for that? How about the weather? What if it's clear in the first half into a 10mph wind and then raining sideways in the second half but the stadium configuration is closed off? Point is - its 1 data point.

Characteristic examples:

• Location of the shooter - distance, angle

• Body part used - head foot

• Type of pass - thru ball, cross, set piece

• Type of attack - Off possession, rebound, defensive location, dribble

• Position of Goalkeeper

How it’s measured:

• “Millions” of shots are compared with similar characteristics to decide the probability of a goal shot result.

• xG = 0 is a MISS every time.

• xG = 1 is a GOAL every time.

• xG = .5 is a goal 50% of the time.

• Each penalty kick is considered .79, since they share the same characteristics and penalties are converted at a 79% rate. Some xG calculations do not include penalty kicks.

A couple examples of how it’s used:

• Bookies can use xG to set over under lines and final score lines.

• Teams can use xG to look deeper at what is and isn't working in attack or in defense.

• A team’s xG difference (xG minus xGAllowed) might indicate a team is creating chances but not finishing, or vice versa. Making the most of their chances, or not.

• Looking at specific player xG may indicate the quality of chances a player is creating for themselves.

Here are up to date xG, xGA and xG vs Actual Goals for the PL season. (not including Monday’s match)

• Everton, Palace and Bournemouth are not finishing but creating chances.

• BHA, Newcastle and Villa are converting more than their share.

In Summary,

Not all xG data is created equal and does not tell the whole story but is a data point that many pundits and reporters are using to talk about quality of play - you know, because “data”.

For a deeper dive

• The Analyst

• xGscore Football Predictions

Off Island 🏝️

Europe competitions this week - no rest for the weary.

• Newcastle could get some separation in this most difficult group of the competition.

• Must win for Man United.

• Tough road test again for Arsenal at Sevilla.

• City will be big favorites in Switzerland.

Alos looking forward to AC Milan heads to Paris to take on PSG Wednesday.

Champions League Current Standings

Champions League Matches Mid-Week

• Man United host Copenhagen Tuesday 2pm Paramount+

• Arsenal travel to Sevilla Tuesday 2pm Paramount+

• Man City travel to Young Boys Wednesday 2pm Paramount+

• Newcastle host Dortmund Wednesday 2pm Paramount+

Europa League

• West Ham travel to Olympiacos Thursday 1145am Paramount+

• Liverpool host Toulouse Thursday 2pm Paramount+

• BHA host Ajax Thursday 2pm Paramount+

Europa Conference

• Aston Villa travel to AZ Alkmaar Thursday 1145am Paramount+

Best Bets 💰

Good week….Big Cat karma?