Match Week 8 Preview

EPL Match Week 8 Preview

Shout out to CS subscriber Plugger for sending pictures from GREAT seats in Austin for the USMNT v Panama.

Known Plugger for a long time. Probably the first person to call me out on my US centric view of sport. Saw him, as his hobby, dive into one of his passions from his home country of Australia - Football. Plugger’s vision and leadership in the early days led to the creation of the United States Australian Football League - USAFL (originally US Footy) 27 years ago. Fast forward to a league that now has 47 clubs, 72 teams (men & women) and serves as the sole representative of the Australian Football League (AFL) in the US. Anyone remember watching games in the early days on ESPN?

2024 Nationals were just held in Austin, TX this last weekend. Congrats to Plugger for the vision and execution of the USAFL and to the Austin Crows in their title win over the Denver Bulldogs.

Check out the link above to see if there’s a team in your area.

In Today’s CleanSheet:

• Headlines 📌

• Current Situation📈📉

• Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥- You OK Over There England?

• Off Island 🏝️ - RELAX

• Best Bets 💰

Headlines 📌

• CS Match of the Week. Liverpool -150 v Chelsea +360 SUN 1030a - Talent. New Managers. Top of Table. Time for a mid-term exam. Both sides have had a “relatively light” schedule so far and taken advantage. Liverpool’s defense (2 goals allowed thru 7 matches) has been stout. Chelsea score more than 2 goals per match, 16 goals in 7. The Red’s keeper Alisson will be out for a while after sustaining a hamstring injury. Chelsea will be without Fofana and Cucurella due to suspension from 5 yellow cards. There will be some untested players in the Blue’s defense.

• 7.2.1 Weekend. 7 Saturday, 2 Sunday, Monday 1.

• Schedule-onomics. Liverpool is off and running, but let’s look one click down. Their 6W 1L run has been against current table 20, 19, 17, 14, 13, 11, and 10. Their next 6 matches get a lot tougher against current table 3, 6, 5, 19, 2, 7.

• Talisman. In soccer the term represents a KEY figure who adds that extra something to the team.

  • Saw this analysis by @FPLMeerkat on the Talisman for each team through MW7.

Couple things stood out

• How can you be a Talisman and have 1 or fewer assists. That’s the situation at 13 of 20 teams.

• 9 of 20 teams do not have an outright Talisman. Is that good or bad?

• 8 of 20 Talisman are Forwards, 12 of 20 Midfielders.

• Just 3 players have exceeded their xG. Maybe that’s a problem with the xG metric?

• 8 of 20 take the teams Penalties, 6 of those 8 are Midfielders.

• Boy, Son for Spurs, where is he. He did miss 2 matches with a hamstring, but even so the Spurs Captain needs to be on this list.

What 2 Look 4 👀- Match Week 8

Upside Down 🔀🔀🔀🔀🔀 

(Home Teams Behind in the Table to their Visitors, Yet Favorites)

• Man United -145 v Brentford +340 SAT 9a - 14 v 11. 3 wins in 10 for United is not good enough for United or any big club for that matter and the lack of goals at Old Trafford (1) is troubling. It’s not a stretch to say the small side from west London has the better manager and it’s possible that Thomas Frank will better use the international break heading into Old Trafford. The Bee’s have 3L, but that’s against Spurs, City and Liverpool.

• Newcastle -105 v BHA +250 SAT 9a - 7 v 8. OK, not really but close enough. Winner could sit 4^th in the table at the end of the weekend. Even in today’s easy travel world for some reason traveling from the South Coast up to the far North is an issue for teams. Both sides have 3W 3L 1 D on the season. The Magpies getting it done on defense and the Seagulls with offense.

• Southampton +130 v Leicester City +200 SAT 9a - 19 v 15. Big game in the relegation race. The Saints have yet to win this season, effort is there but too many mistakes in the final 30’. The Foxes got a home win at the King Power over the Cherries just before the break. LCFC has looked surprisingly solid defensively with attacking being a problem. Can Southampton extend beyond the first 60’ of the match to the full 90’ to get the points.

• Fulham +135 v Aston Villa +190 SUN 9a - 8 v 5. FFC has had a great start to the season and is getting great play from Raul Jimenez (who scored against the USMNT last week). Also been a great start for the Villains who’s only loss has been to Arsenal. Villa have been better at home and Craven Cottage will be a tough road test.

• Ipswich Town +135 v Everton +190 SAT 9a - 17 v 16. Another big game in the relegation race. Both sides have struggled scoring goals and controlling possession. In a combined 14 matches both sides have yet to have more possession than their opponents. Unless this one finishes 50/50, that streak will end.

“Solid” Home Favorites 🏘️🏘️

• Tottenham -200 v West Ham +475 SAT 630a - London Derby. Been an on or off season for Spurs. When good they have been VERY good, when bad they have been VERY bad. Just look back to their last match taking a 2-0 lead to HT only to lose 2-3 at BHA. Up until their last match, a 4-1 win over Ipswich, West Ham have been lackluster. Which side used the international break the best?

• Liverpool -150 v Chelsea +360 SUN 1030a - See Above.

• Forest +130 v Palace +210 MON 2p - Are you ready for some football 🎶🎶. A Monday night party in England. Forest have been the surprise of the season with just 1L in 7 undo Nuno. Palace have been surprising in their own way. After finishing strong last season Palace has been anything but currently sitting in relegation without a win. A tough road trip to “the Queen of the Midlands”.

Home Dogs 🌭🌭🌭 

• Wolves +800 v Man City -319 SUN 8a - Wolves beat City at Molineaux last season 2-1. But that was last year, and Wolves are sitting 20 in the table this season allowing a whopping 21 goals, 3 per match. City has been scoring but has just one clean sheet on the season. On paper this looks like a high scoring match with some City revenge for last season.

• Bournemouth +400 v Arsenal-155 SAT 1130a - The Cherries have played well but struggled to score, that is until the 86’ minute or later. But still, the struggle has been real. Injury issues have been the problem for the Gunners and while they have overcome them, can that continue. They will again be missing 4 starters and another 5 are questionable. Will need to be a gritty game for Arsenal to get the expected points.

Current Situation 📈📉

Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥

You OK over there England?

The England National Team (The Three Lions) hired a new manager - Thomas Tuchel (TT). You may recognize his name as he has managed some of the biggest clubs in the world - Bayern Munich (23-24), Chelsea (21-22), PSG (18-20) and Borussia Dortmund (15-17). He took Chelsea to the FA Cup final in 2021, losing to Leicester City but that same year got his first Chelsea trophy by winning the Champions Leage beating Real Madrid in the Semi’s and City in the Finals. Tuchel has had a great record in knock-out competitions. He has been hired for one reason - to give England the best chance to win the World Cup in 2026.

YET - here was the overwhelming reaction across much of English Soccer:

“We need an English manager managing England”.

CS Take. 

Both things can be true. Tuchel might just be the right man for the job AND supporters can be frustrated that there is not an available quality English candidate for the job. Eddie Howe was considered a leading candidate and may have been great, but he’s fully employed at Newcastle and clearly was not ready to leave, the timing was not right for Eddie. Interestingly, if Jurgen Klopp or Pep Guardiola would’ve been hired it’s very possible the same people yelling about a German taking the role would be praising the hire.

Tuchel addressed this in his press conference (1 min) very well.

Either way - this will make for great drama between now and the World Cup. Fans got frustrated with previous English England manager Gareth Southgate who took the club to multiple major tournament finals but could not win the big one. Fans were also not happy with how the team was playing.

Off Island 🏝️

Is the honeymoon over for Poch?

Maurico Pochettino has been the USMNT for not even a month, got a nice 2-0 win against Panama in Austin, TX over the most recent international break and then traveled to Guadalajara, MX to take on Mexico where they lost 0-2, the first loss to Mexico in 5 years. The over-reactions began before the Mexico match when Poch announced he was releasing Christian Pulisic and several other players early from their international duty to manage workload and injuries.

• Here’s a really good X follow, @ManagerTactical 70k followers, calling the USMNT soft.

• Alexi Lalas (@SOTUWithAlexi) was not happy with the approach or the loss. “Load management can kiss my ass!”

• Former player Tim Howard was not happy, he had several statements, here’s a summary “Many fans don’t want to see experiments or rotation against our rivals. I am normally one of them— this is a game to win.”

• The list goes on of pundits with similar sentiments.

CS Take.

• The match was a “pre-season” match, more about learning and giving guys a chance to make their case for playing time and less about the final score.

• Poch has a short window to turn the USMNT around and he needs to know what he’s got.

• They played with 4 projected starters in the 11.

• These guys play way too many matches.

• Here is some of what was learned:

  • Currently there is very little depth

  • Midfield is an issue

  • Turner should’ve saved the free kick, the first goal against Mexico, he was very slow in reacting, stutter stepped, all around poor.

  • Players need to be playing leading up to the World Cup, not sitting the bench just to be on a big European club.

  • The team is soft, lacking intensity and leadership. That needs the be the number 1 focus area over the next year.

Best Bets 💰

CS had a nice little run betting the NCAAFB and NFL in Vegas last weekend. Looking to bring that energy to this week’s picks.

Match Week 8 - Winners Only Please

General philosophy this week - look for games that have managers who traditionally manage the international break well and have “+” odds and take a couple flyers on some potential big oddson big players/situations. And then, bet on Pep and Haaland.

Bournemouth to win +400 at Arsenal. $10

Bournemouth to draw +300 at Arsenal. $10

To pick Bournemouth to win or draw (+.5) was at +119, that would pay $22 on a $20 bet. On a $10 bet a win pays 40, draw 30. Minus the $10 best you lose that means a Bournemouth win pays $30 and a draw $20. Just too many Arsenal injuries on defense and a Cherrie’s side who can score.

Brentford to win +340 at Man United. $10

Brentford to draw +332 at Man United. $10

Brentford Man United to score a goal in 10 min or less +245. $10

Brentford to score first +146 at Man United. $10

It’s been 4 matches where the Bee’s have scored in 90s or less. Let’s ride that, and who knows, could be United to score early.

Man City to win -310 at Wolves O3.5 goals. $310

Man City Wolves O3.5 goals +110. $20

Man City Wolves 6+ goals +500. $20

Don’t overthink it. Wolves have given up 3 goals a match, City score 2.4.

Leicester City to win +192 at Southampton. $20

LCFC is better and +192 is a good number.

Newcastle to win -106 v BHA. $21

Eddie Howe > Hurzeler. North > South. St James Park better for the home side.

Forest v Palace to Draw +230. $21

Looks like Gibb-White will still be sidelined for Forest. That makes goal scoring tough. These sides have combined for 7 draws. That seems to be the lean with the Tree’s best player on the sidelines. This is Oliver Glasner’s last stand coming out of the break, expect a solid performance.