In Today’s CleanSheet:

• Headlines 📌

• What 2 Look 4 👀 - this weeks match-ups

• Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥

• Off Island 🏝️ - Area’s of interest outside the PL

• Best Bets 💰- Predictions & Results

Headlines 📌

• Pencil This One In. Villa at Liverpool Sunday 8am cst on USA Network. Liverpool are favorites at -150. That seems like a lot. Lots of questions surround this fixture. Which team has the answers?

  • How good is Liverpool? How did they beat Newcastle with just 10 men after going down a goal? How will their defense adjust to their star center back being out of the lineup for 3-4 matches? Where is Mo Salah’s head with all the Saudi talk? Did The Reds exert too much emotional and physical energy last week?

  • How good is Villa? Is Villa the team that got run in week 1 at Newcastle or the team that looked dominating against two below average clubs? Supposedly able to defend, but 6 goals in 3 matches, can they slow down Liverpool?

• Mo Salah. $162M transfer fee offer to Liverpool for Mo Salah. That’s a lot. While the transfer window closes 9 1 for Europe, FIFA has listed the Saudi window to close 9 20. Will Liverpool sell a player knowing they then can’t backfill? It would cost Liverpool a lot more than $162M to lose Salah and not be able to replace him until the January transfer window. Expect Salah to stay at Liverpool for the year and consider a move next summer.

What 2 look 4 👀- Match Week 4 (all times CST)

First Points of the Season?

• Sheffield United v Everton (Sat 630am) - Someone will get points, maybe both. The Toffee’s are favored (by a little) on the road, can they score their first goal of the season?

• Luton Town v West Ham (Fri 2pm) - First home match for LT (Check out their Stadium 2 min). Will home cooking be enough to improve their play? Which side will control the ball? By design, both sides have out possessed 35-65 on the season, focusing on defense and countering. Expect a close match into the second half, but can LT perform in the final 30 to get at least a point.

• Burnley v Tottenham (Sat 9am) - The schedule has not been nice to The Clarets aside from their third straight home match. So far, the PL has been too much for them, will they turn that around Saturday.

Redemption

• BHA v Newcastle (Sat 1130am cst) - Both sides coming off a very disappointing result in week 3. Both have high expectations, top 4 finish and title aspirations.

Heavy-Weight Matchups

• Liverpool v Villa (Sun 8am) - See above.

• Arsenal v Man United (Sun 1030) - Together both sides have 13 of a possible 18 points on the season, but they really haven’t played anywhere near their potential.

Home favorites, in order of most likely to win.

• Man City v Fulham (Sat 9am) -650 odds. Did City struggle at Sheffield United because Pep was missing? Expect a big bounce back this week.

• Chelsea v Forest (Sat 9am) -260. Could The Blues come back from a 2 goal deficit like Man U did last week? No, but don’t expect them to be down 2 goals either.

• Brentford v Bournemouth (Sat 9am)-145. The Bee’s are a very stats-driven club, and their expected goal stats are significantly better than The Cherries. Thomas Frank maximizes his talent and should find a way for his team to score against Bournemouth.

• Palace v Wolves (Sun 8am)-111. Surprise, Palace’s record is 1-1-1. Steady in the middle of the pack. Wolves are scrapping for everything they can get. A point or three again on the road would be a great building block for the team from Wolverhampton.

Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥

Fan reaction streaming…..is this a thing?

Here are 11 minutes of streaming fan reactions to Liverpool v Newcastle. For the short version, just advance the video to the 7 minute mark. (language warning!)

Off Island 🏝️

The Champions League?

First of all, let’s all acknowledge the confusion. The Championship is the 2^nd best league in English Soccer. The Open Championship is Golf. The Champions League is a competition that runs in parallel to the soccer season to crown the “Champions of Europe”.

Here are the 8 Pods drawn on August 31 for the 2023/24 competition. Matches begin September 19.

Quick Reaction

Best Bets 💰

Season Gains/Losses -$52, 5W 9L on picks

Luton v West Ham to WIN by 2+ +200, ALSO Final score 2-0 +635. $20 & $20.

The Hammers have maximized their scoring opportunities but their draw at The Cherries cast doubt on their ability to dominate a team they are better than. LT have been outmatched in their two matches this season, all on the road. Can LT’s first home match of the season bring enough energy and emotion to lift their play? This also feels like a clash of similar styles. Who is going to take possession? Both sides have been fine to sit back and count on the counterattack. WH > LT on the Counter, but LT keeps it closer than you would expect at home. West Ham will win by 2+ goals, and we will take a +635 Flyer on a final result of 2-0.

Villa to DRAW +320 at Liverpool. $20.

The Reds will be riding the high of their 10 man win at Newcastle. Villa was boat raced in week 1 at Newcastle but have been the best side in all the PL the last two weeks. Losing Virgil van Dijk to suspension will hurt Liverpool and the Mo Saleh drama just adds distraction. Expect some late heroics late in this one as both teams get a point.

Palace to WIN by 2+ goals v Wolves +255. $20.

Palace has been solid but only scored 2 goals in 2 matches, it could be a lot more. Wolves defense/keeper have been solid, and Gary O’Neil has this team scrapping for every ball, but how much of last week was Wolves versus Everton being Everton. Palace converts chances at home and Wolves realize that while they too wear blue, they are not Everton.

City to WIN -650 v Fulham. $195.

City had their lackluster performance at SU last week and survived the scare to eke out 3 points. Add to that Fulham drawing with Arsenal last week and City will see this as a chance to make a statement and pound the team that drew with a club looking to take down City for the title. Instead of getting better odds and taking a 2+ or 3+ goal win, play more units and for a straight win.