Match Week 37 Preview

World’s Most Valuable Clubs by League - thought this was interesting.

• Did not expect MLS to have 40% of the clubs in the top 50, but it demonstrates the difference between having a “salary cap” and distributing wealth. It also speaks to the Global impact the clubs outside the US have versus MLS which has Regional impact.

• The per club numbers are interesting too.

  • $4B for the top 9 EPL clubs

  • $4B for the top 3 LaLiga clubs

  • $2B for the top 2 Ligue 1 clubs

  • $2B for the for the top 4 Bundesliga clubs

  • 750k for the top 20 MLS clubs.

• LAFC sits highest for MLS at around $1B. MS has 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22 spots on the list.

• Man United are at the top of the list at $5.5B, just ahead of Real Madrid, Barcelona, Liverpool and Bayern Munich.

• PL sit in 6 of the top 10.

• Here is the report from givemesport.com. They have broken the revenue down from publicly available information into three categories - Broadcast, Commercial, Matchday.

In Today’s CleanSheet:

• Headlines 📌

• Current Situation📈📉

• Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥- Playoffs?!?

• Off Island 🏝️ - European Finals Set

• Best Bets 💰

Headlines 📌

• Forest v Chelsea +100 Sat 1130am cst NBC - A lot on the line at City Ground. A win and the Tree’s secure safety from relegation. A loss, and it’s possible they will need points at Burnley on the final match day of the season. The Blues have taken points in 11 of their last 12 matches and are making a push for one of the Europe spots. On paper you would expect Chelsea to be bigger favorites, but they sit at even money.

• 8.1.1. Weekend. 8 Saturday, 1 Sunday, 1 Monday.

• No Soup For You. Forest are in a relegation battle. They sit 3 points ahead of Luton Town and 5 of Burnley, and Forest own the goal differential. And, that is where they will stay heading into the final 2 matches of the season as their appeal of their 4-point deduction was denied.

• 14 yo. City have agreed to sign 14-year-old American Cavan Sullivan after he turns 18. Crazy.

• Castle on the Hill. This Ed Sheeran video (YT 4m) was filmed near Framlingham Castle, in County Suffolk UK about 15 miles from Ipswich Town. Ed made it back to the team this week to throw them a promotion party! (X 60s)

What 2 Look 4 👀- Match Week 37

A Forest win and the relegation battle is decided. An Arsenal loss, and it feels like City will win the league. A Villa win or Spurs loss and Villa secure CL for next season.

Title Race Impact 🏇🏿🏇🏿

• Man United v Arsenal -260 Sun 1030am cst - Two big clubs heading in opposite directions. Have United ever been this big of underdogs (+650) at home. Yes, in 2019 Man United had their “wurst” dog odds ever, at+650 against Man City. What happened? United beat City. Also interesting, the Gunners have won only 1 time in their last 16 PL matches at Old Trafford. Another big test for Arsenal. United have two chances to secure a Europe position next season - make a run over the last 3 matches or Beat City in the FA Cup Final.

• Fulham v Man City -426 Sat - City go top of the table with a win, and a trip to Craven Cottage may be just what they need to do it. FFC have not beaten City in their last 20 meetings. City seem on a mission to win out, after getting knocked out of the CL. FFC had uninspiring draws in back-to-back London Derbey’s and have just one win in their last 7 matches.

Race For Europe🏎️🏎️🏎️🏎️🏎️

• Villa v Liverpool -120 Mon - Villa seem to be hitting the wall in the final’s weeks of the season and a Thursday night trip to Greece does not help. However, they are in position to secure a CL spot for next season as Spurs are doing the same. Liverpool’s table position is secure, and the title is most likely out of reach. They looked dominant for most of their Spurs match, can they bring that energy on the road to Villa Park.

• Tottenham v Burnley +650 Sat - It’s been a tough run over the last 3 matches for Spurs and they need 3 points to feel secure about their position in the Europa League next year. Granted the competition has been tough (Newcastle, Arsenal, Chelsae and Liverpool), but they just didn’t look good. Burnley had been playing well but committing too many mistakes that turned wins into draws, and those dropped points make this one a must win to have any hope of staying up.

• Newcastle v BHA +380 Sun - The Magpies have come back around to good form, and Isak has been a big reason for it with 8 goals in the last 7 matches. Aside from a hiccup at Palace, Newcastle have scored 13 goals in their last 3 wins. BHA, on the other hand, have scored 2 goals in their last 6 matches, and one of those was an own goal by Burnley.

• Forest v Chelsea +100 Sat - See Above.

• Man United v Arsenal - See Above.

Race to Avoid Relegation🌋🌋🌋

• Forest v Chelsea +100 Sat - See Above.

• West Ham v Luton Town +280 Sat - Both sides have won just 1 match recently - West Ham over their last 9 and Luton Town over their last 13. And, both sides are seeing their windows close, Europe for the Hammers and relegation safety for the Hatters. Must win for LT or it’s the Championship next season.

• Tottenham v Burnley +650 Sat - See Above.

Playing for Table Position🦁🦁🦁

• Bournemouth v Brentford +240 Sat - The Cherries are looking to add to their highest ever point total and finish in the PL, chasing a top 10 finish. The Bee’s have been safe from relegation but underperforming their previous seasons. They have benefited from some “worser” performances from the bottom 3 as well as Everton’s and Forest’s point deductions.

• Everton v Sheffield United +650 Sat. After 2 seasons of needed to avoid relegation on the final match day, Everton have easily secured safety in a season where they have been deducted points twice - for a total of 8 points. So, they really are a team that would be fighting for a top 10 spot. The Blades sit on 100 goals allowed and will most certainly set the record. A record they will be happy not to set is lowest point total for a PL season. Derby County set that record in 2007-08 with 11 points, the Blades currently sit on 16.

• Wolves v Palace +155 Sat - Palace are unbeaten in their last 5 (4W 1D), four of those matches are against teams currently fighting for Europe positions. Wolves great run through ¾ of the season has cooled off, winning just 1 match in their last 8. A Palace win would move them ahead of Wolves in the Table on goal differential. A top 10 finish is not out of the question for the winner of this match.

Current Situation 📈📉

Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥

Playoffs?!? (Best Jim Mora Voice (X))

Like the NHL and NBA, the playoffs are something different. In the EFL it’s a second chance for teams who did not automatically qualify for promotion to earn their way up.

The Format

The Semi-Finals are played home-and-away, aggregate goals. If tied, two 15 extra time periods will be fully played. If still tied it goes to penalty kicks. Winners of the Semi-Finals play in the Finals at Wembly Stadium in London.

Reminder

It’s worth at a minimum $250M to the clubs that make it into the PL.

The 4 team Championship Playoff begins Sunday. League 1 finals have been determined.

The final Promotion spots for the Championship, League 1 and League 2 are determined by a 4-team play-off, here are the teams and schedule.

Championship - Semi-Finals Home & Away May 12 & 16/17, Finals May 26.

• (4) Norwich (last in PL in 2021/22) v (1) Leeds (2022/23).

• (3) West Bromwich (2021/22) v (2) Southampton (2004/05).

League 1 - Semi-Finals Home & Away May 3/4&7/8, Finals May 18.

• (4) Barnsley v (1) Bolton Wanderers - Bolton Advance on 5-4 aggregate.

• (3) Oxford v (2) Peterborough United - Oxford Advance on 2-1 aggregate.

League 2 - Semi-Finals Home & Away May 6/7 & 9/10, Finals May 19.

• (4) Crawley Town v (1) Milton Keynes - Crawley lead 3-0 and travel to Milton Keynes May 10.

• (3) Crewe v (2) Doncaster Rovers - Doncaster lead 2-0 and host Crewe May 9.

Off Island 🏝️

GREAT MATCHES - Borussia Dortmund, currently sitting 5th in the Bundesliga is onto the CL Final after shocking PSG in Paris. They will take on Real Madrid, who needed 2 goals in the final 3 minutes to knock out Bayern Munich.

Champions League - FINAL June 1, 2pm cst

Bayern Munich 3-4 aggregate Real Madrid

2-2 heading to Madrid, it looked like Munich was going to shock the Madrid crowd as they lead 1-0 at 88’. But a goal keeping error (X 1m) by the normally solid German National Neuer (here are 2 saves in a min in this one (X 1m)) got Madrid on the board. Bayern had made several defensive substitutions earlier, playing for the regular time win. After that goal went in, all the momentum swung to Madrid who scored again at 91’ (X 1m). It looked like Munich had scored at 99’, but the referee incorrectly rules off-side and blew the whistle, meaning to VAR review. That was the topic debated after the match, but if the Neuer doesn’t make the error, Munich goes on to win. Here (X 1m) is Thomas Tuchel’s reaction, he’s right.

Borussia Dortmund 2-0 aggregate PSG

1-0 heading to Paris, Mats Hummels scored just after HT (X 30s) and survived several close calls as PSG hit the post at least 5 times. Dortmund sit 5^th in the Bundesliga yet could be crowned “Champions of Europe” with a win over Real Madrid.

Europa League - Final May 22, 2pm cst - Dublin, Ireland

Leverkusen (Germany) v Atalanta (Italy)

Bayer Leverkusen did it again. This time down 2-0 at home to Roma, and even 2-2 on aggregate, Leverkusen scored at 82’ (X) (an own goal by Roma) and at 90’+7’ to continue their record season long 49 match unbeaten streak (a record in all European Soccer History) and more importantly, advance to the Finals in Dublin. They have now scored FOURTEEN goals in 90’+.

• As CS has said before - nothing like a German side being broadcast in Spanish - enjoy the 90’+7’ goal.

• The CBS/Paramount+ studio reaction. (X 1m)

Europa Conference League - Final May 29, 2pm cst - Athens, Greece

Fiorentina (Italy) v Olympiacos (Greece)

Best Bets 💰

Match Week 36

Palace to Win v Wolves +140. $60

Palace have been playing great under new manager Oliver Glasner, scoring and defending. Wolves have not been playing their best soccer. While it is not easy to win at the Molineaux, getting a team on excellent form over a team struggling team and getting +140 is worth a couple units.

Bournemouth to Win v Brentford +100. $60

The Cherries were in great form and there is no shame in losing at Arsenal last weekend. Aside from soundly beating relegation sides Sheffield United and Luton Town Brentford have not won since early February. CS will add some additional Units into this one.

Everton to Win via CS @ Sheffield United +133. $20

Sean Dyche and a no pressure Everton side at a Blades side just finishing out the season. Expect some fight from SU, but not to get their fourth win. The Toffee’s have the second most CS’s on the season (Arsenal) and I expect them to get another one.

Liverpool to Win at Villa -120. $48

I expect the Reds to play for Klopp and it seemed the “cover over the net” may have been removed. Villa is just not playing well the last two weeks and they will need everything from the home crowd as it will be hard to get up after getting hammered by Olympiacos. I will lay the minus number.

Chelsea to Win at Forest +100. $20

Forest will be desperate and the environment at City Ground will be great. But the Blues are better, and they are also fighting for a big prize. Cole Palmer will be the difference. I like getting Chelsea and plus odds.

Tottenham to Win v Burnley -278. $55

Liverpool only have pride to play for now, the title is out of reach and CL is guaranteed. They look tired and frustrated. Spurs looked lost at Chelsea and have been in a funk, but they do have Europe to play for. This feels like a toss-up, so take the 400+ odds.

Newcastle to Win v BHA -140. $72

Back at St James’ Park the Magpies are fighting for Europe. BHA on the other hand is now heading on the road only scoring 2 goals in the last 6 matches. I expect Newcastle to score more than 2 and BHA not to keep up.

Longshot of the Week. Palace, Spurs, Bournemouth, Newcastle, Everton all to win+1300. $10