Match Week 36 Preview

What do you see in this picture?

Here’s what the CS sees…..

• Post position 1 is out of picture, because no horse has ever won from post position 1.

• Woodford Reserve “Double Oaked” (@woodfordReserve X) is excellent - they are welcome to sponsor the CS - actually that offer goes out to several Bourbon Distilleries including Bulleit, Buffalo Trace and Bardstown.

• How much does John Deere pay the Derby to be the official Tractor?

• What happened to Post Positions 9 & 10? Is that Post Position 15 or 16? That’s a lot of scratches.

• They have about 90s to get those gates out of the way before the horses hit the home stretch.

Some interesting additional facts on the Run for the Roses…

• The 1 ¼ mile long race is restricted to 3-year-olds only.

• All thoroughbred racehorses have the same birthday - January 1. No matter the day a horse is born during the year, racehorse age is marked from New Year’s Day to help keep track of bloodlines.

• The Derby was started by Lewis Clark Jr - grandson of William Clark - of the famous explorers Lewis and Clark who saw the Epsom Derby in England.

• Secretariat, 1973, holds the record at 1:59.4s.

• 120,000 Mint Julep’s will be served this weekend.

CS Pick - it’s a process of elimination.

• Starting gates were introduced in 1930, in addition to post position 1, 17 has never seen a winner.

• Post Position 5 has had the most winners, 10.6% of the time. PP 10, 8, 15 have won between 9.5-10.4% of the time each.

• Post positions 6, 11, 12 and 14 have won < 3% of the time.

• Post Positions 17-22 average a 10th place finish or worse in all races.

• Horses with their names beginning with the letter S have won the Derby 19 times, more than any other letter.

• Not picking international horses - that eliminates 10 & 11 this year.

By process of elimination - Not taking a horse in positions 1, 6, 10, 11, 12, 14, 17-22 and from the remaining posts, just one starts with S - Sierra Leone in post position 2. That’s your winner.

For more “professional” analysis check out Chris Fallica (yes the guy who used to be on College Gameday) @BearBetsPod @chrisfallica (X) for his Derby Analysis for Fox.

In Today’s CleanSheet:

• Headlines 📌

• Current Situation📈📉

• Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥- Maphead

• Off Island 🏝️ - Europe Results

• Best Bets 💰

Headlines 📌

• Pencil It In. Chelsea v West Ham +358 8am Sun - Europe on the line for both sides. A loss or draw for either and Europe will most likely be lost. The Blues have momentum coming off a great win and home atmosphere. Cole Palmer going for the scoring title may be the difference in this one.

• 1.5.3.1. Weekend. 1 Friday, 5 Saturday, 3 Sunday, 1 Monday.

• Soccer Viewership. The PL made up 64% of all US soccer viewership last week, 6.79M out of 10.64M. MLS numbers have fallen off a cliff. The PL has 6 of the top 8 matches viewed, Liga Mexico have the others. Here are Helltownbeer’s numbers (give him a follow on X).

• Brilliant UCL Coverage. The Champions League coverage on CBS/Paramount+ is great. This week they sent Jamie Carragher (Wiki - 17-year Liverpool and England National Team Career and now commentator - @carra23 (X)) was sent to watch the Dortmund match with the fans in the Yellow Wall. The after-match interview was awesome (X).

• 3 “Game In Hand” Points to Chelsea. Chelsea 2-0 Spurs. All Chelsea, they just seemed in control throughout, Spurs looked off. The Spurs loss means Villa is most likely into the last Champions League spot for next season and Spurs have some work to do to maintain their 6/5 point lead over Man United/Newcastle for the Europa League. Chelsea put themselves squarely in the conversation for a top 7 finish and a Europe spot.

  • 1-0. Header 1 (X) by Chalobah.

  • 2-0. Header 2 (X) by Jackson, assist to the post.

  • Fiery Ange. A clearly frustrated (X) Ange Postecoglou on his Spurs team not having the fire to win.

• Salary Cap. The EPL is close to implementing a Salary Cap for the 2025/26 season. It’s a long, complicated subject. One major “pro” could maybe be more parity because teams would not be able to significantly out spend others. A major “con” may be the fact other leagues around the world would not be following those rules, so they could pay significantly more for players.

  • skysports take.

  • @Joepompliamo has a good 6 min summary.

What 2 Look 4 👀- Match Week 36

Title Race Impact 🏇🏿🏇🏿

• Arsenal v Bournemouth +1100 Sat - This could be a letdown spot for the Gunners. A big Londer Derby win, a North London Derby win, this match with Bournemouth and Man United in a week. The Cherries have won with back-to-back clean sheets.

• Man City v Wolves +2500 Sun - A week to prepare, a poor performance in a win last week at Forest and a veteran team used to winning titles. Chan and Cunha are both back and that makes a big difference for Wolves and City has conceded goals 23 of 34 matches this season in the PL so they will most likely need to score more than 1 for all 3 points.

Race For Europe🏎️🏎️🏎️🏎️🏎️🏎️

• BHA v Villa +140 Sun - BHA has scored one goal, an own goal since April 3. Villa has been great on the road this season and when things are clicking, they score a lot. The big question is how they will respond after a tough loss mid-week in the Europa Conference League.

• Liverpool v Tottenham +455 Sun - Do either side have incentive. Liverpool’s position is set. Spurs should be, but actually requires more work. This could be a very open flowing game and come down to Liverpool’s ability to Finish in the box, something they’ve struggled with of late.

• Palace v Man United +172 Mon - Palace are favorites. Over United. 12 league defeats is the most MU have ever had in PL play. Feels like 3 goals will be needed to win.

• Burnley v Newcastle +100 Sat - The Clarets have gotten points in 10 of their last 11 matches. The Magpies need a win to keep pace in the Europe race, but the road has not been kind compared to St James’ Park.

• Chelsea v West Ham +358 Sun - In 21 matches, the Hammers have kept just 1 clean sheet. Surprisingly, that was at Arsenal. Chelsea have only 1 loss in their last 18 home matches in all competitions.

• Arsenal v Bournemouth +1100 Sat - See Above.

Race to Avoid Relegation🌋🌋🌋

• Sheffield United v Forest -130 Sat - This should be all Forest, but they will have all the pressure. Their goal is to get ahead of Burnley by 3 points before the final match day, since they have goal differential by 12 that should keep them up (depending on their point deduction appeal). The Blades are 4 goals allowed away from an all-time PL record.

• Luton Town v Everton +160 Fri - Everton have been on a Clean Sheet run, 4 of their last 5 matches. Luton Town have scored in 23 of 24 matches.

• Burnley v Newcastle +100 Sat - See Above.

Playing for Position🦁

• Brentford v Fulham +220 Sat - A London Derby. 13 goals in the last 3 matches when they play each other. Both sides secured for next season’s PL.

Current Situation 📈📉

Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥

Maphead

The CS knows other “Mapheads” (subscriber JA is one who can easily name every interstate in the US, and most countries and cities in the world).

When it comes to the English Football League (EFL) there is great value in understanding where teams are in England and provides a great data point in understanding more about the club and their supporters. Just like in the US, people understand there is a difference between a Philidelphia Eagles fan and a SF 49er fan.

Here are where the current PL teams reside in England.

Came across a map this week on X - with ALL the EFL club’s locations. An eye chart, but for Mapheads, something you can spend time looking at to better understand a club’s history. Seems like the bigger the logo, the higher the league they are in.

Check out the CleanSheet Website for more history of EFL Clubs.

The Championship FINAL MATCH DAY is Saturday - 630am on ESPN+.

These matches are a GREAT watch - especially at around 8am cst when all the matches enter the final 20’ and teams are scrambling to make something happen.

• Ipswich won mid-week. They are promoted to the PL with a win or draw. They host relegated side Huddersfield.

• Leeds is promoted with a Win AND Ipswich Loss.

• The final promotion playoff spot is up for grabs.

  • A West Brom Win or Draw and they will be in the playoff.

  • Hull is in the playoff with a Win AND West Brom Loss.

• Plymouth will avoid relegation with a Win OR a Birmingham Loss.

• Birmingham will avoid relegation with a Win AND Plymouth Loss or Draw. It’s possible for Birmingham to avoid relegation with a Draw AND a Plymouth loss by 4 goals.

Off Island 🏝️

Europe Semi-Final Leg 1 Results

Champions League

Bayern Munich 2-2 Real Madrid

This was a great, world class match and environment where the goals were scored by great players at a time when their teams were struggling. Advantage Real Madrid, heading back to host Munich at the Bernabeu Stadium next week even on aggregate.

• Bayern dominated the 1H but found themselves down on this BRILLIANT goal (X) by Vinicius at 24’. The brilliance comes from the PASS by Toni Kroos. Kind of reminds me of the “Princeton” back door play. In this case, the speed if Vini and the defenders concern about letting him get the ball directly completely opened up the back door.

• Real Madrid got the better of the 2H, but Bayern found the net twice in 4 minutes, first on a rocket by Sane (X) at 53’ and then a PK from Harry Kane (X) at 57’.

• Yet, at 83’ Vini got the Brace on a PK (X) to get the important road draw.

Borussia Dortmund 1-0 PSG

First off - the atmosphere in Dortmund (X sound on) - WOW. The Gelbe Wand, “Yellow Wall”, is the largest free-standing grandstand in Europe, holding 25,000 fans and a full 80,000 seat stadium singing You’ll Never Walk Alone.

Both these clubs played each other twice during the Group Round earlier this season - a PSG win 2-0 in Paris and a Draw in Dortmund. This time both sides had great chances, the match could’ve been 3-3 or 4-4. Dortmund would’ve liked a multi-goal win at home, but this gives them a chance in Paris.

• World Class Goal. A great pass, control and finish (X) - brilliant.

• There were many moments like this throughout (X) - how did this match finish 1-0.

Europa League

Europa Conference League

Best Bets 💰

Match Week 36

Wolves to Win at Man City +2500. $10

City at home, playing great soccer and going for a title. It’s all set up for them to be focused and dominate - but - Wolves have some injured pieces back and beat City at Home in October. Everything says City will be focused on beating a team that handed them 1 of their 3 losses so far. Do I expect the Wolves to win, no. But, at +1200 I will throw ½ a unit at that.

Bournemouth to Win at Arsenal +1100. $10

Gunners at home, playing great soccer and going for a title. It’s all set up for them to be focused and dominate - but - the Cherries have been excellent in their own right and are pushing to sneak into a Europe spot. Do I expect the Cherries to win, no. But, at +1000 I will throw ½ a unit at that.

Tottenham to Win at Liverpool +442. $10

Liverpool only have pride to play for now, the title is out of reach and CL is guaranteed. They look tired and frustrated. Spurs looked lost at Chelsea and have been in a funk, but they do have Europe to play for. This feels like a toss-up, so take the 400+ odds.

Palace to Win v Man United +136. $20

Palace O20.5 shots v Man United +165. $20

Palace has looked good and United give up too many opportunities to dominate on the road. They may also be dealing with injuries to Bruno. Just don’t trust ten Hag to get it done on the road. Also, Palace has been playing more freely lately and I expect them to at home against a big club from the northwest. I also expect a lot of shots from Palace and 21 is a lot of shots to hit. I could get -190 at 15.5 shots by Palace but where is the fun in that. Let’s see if we can get to 21.

Forest Sheffield United to Draw +300. $20

Forest is favored by a lot, and while they are the better side and the Blades bleed goals, it feels like SU will want to play Forest next season in the Championship, and to have a chance to do that they need to beat them at home. But they are not good enough to win, but good enough to draw.

Brentford Fulham O4.5 Off-sides +114. $20

Both sides positions are secure in the table, it’s a London Derby, and I expect a bunch of goals. But the over odds are too high, so instead going to take some + odds on the fact there will be a lot of attacking and therefore the opportunity for off-sides.

Luton Town Everton 0-0 at HT +300. $20

Dyche in a track suit is 3-0 with 3 clean sheets. Luton Town have scored in 23 of 24. Something has to give. Everton are secure and will stay up. Luton Town have been fighting for their PL lives, and not showing up in their last 3. This feels like a low scoring match, could be 1-1 or 2-0. I think Everton sits back in the first half, will they get another clean sheet, not sure - but possibly in the first half.

Chelsea to Win v West Ham -155. $31

Aside from a pounding at Arsenal, Chelsea seems to be playing their best soccer. West Ham is not. This is a battle for Europe in this London Derby, and I like the home team with Cole Palmer going for a scoring title. So will lay the - odds, the only time I do that this week.

Villa to Win v BHA +140. $20

I expect a bounce back from Villa’s mid-week disappointment in the ECL. Also, BHA is limping home and Villa travels well, even to the south coast.

Burnley to Win v Newcastle AND under 3.5 goals. +398. $20

OK Clarets, it’s time. Time to play a clean game, no turnovers, no red cards, no own goals. 3 points have been frustratingly just out of reach over the last 6 of 8 matches. While Newcastle is playing for Europe and scoring goals, most of those goals have been at home. They have rarely scored 2 or more goals in their last 10 matches. After a very frustrating season Turf Moor will be rocking. UTC - 2-1.

Longshot of the Week. Burnley-Newcastle exact score 2-1 +900. $10