Match Week 35 Preview

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Your 152nd Winner of The Kentucky Derby. See section 🎱 for the breakdown on who this horse is.

☝️What 2 Look 4 👀- Match Week 35

• 1.4.3.2 Week - 1 Friday, 4 Saturday, 3 Sunday, 2 Monday.

• CS matches of the Week - Title Race

  • Arsenal v Fulham Saturday

  • Everton v Man City Sunday

Friday

Saturday

Sunday

Monday

✌️ The Table

• 4 matches to play - and ALL BUT 2 teams are playing for something.

👌 Northwest Derby

🍀 The Championship

We’re not talking the Champions League (best across Europe), we’re talking England’s level 2 league.

Tune in Saturday AM 630 cst (Paramount +) to watch all matches kick at the same time. If you just want the drama, tune in around 8am when all the games will be ending. Expect late drama.

Here are the matches to focus on…..$300M on the line.

✋ The Champions League

We’re not talking The Championship (level 2 in England), we’re talking the Top Teams across all leagues in Europe.

Europa League - Semi-finals

UEFA Conference League - Semi-finals

• Shakhtar (Ukraine) 1-3 Crystal Palace.

  • Great result for Palace on the road. Round 2 next week Thursday at Selhurst Park in London.

• Vallecano (Spain) 1-0 Strasbourg (France).

🕕 6 Clubs, will Spurs make it 5

Unless Spurs get multiple wins down the stretch a 70,000-seat stadium that will be hosting NFL games next season will also be hosting Championship Soccer.

The “First Tier” of English Football began play in 1888. The current format of the top league, the Premier League, started in 1992.

Since the Premier League started just 6 teams have been relegated out of the League. Three of those teams went right back up, three spent several years in level 2.

7️⃣ Off Island 🏝️🏝️🏝️

This weekend Liverpool head to Man United. Where does this match stack up with other big matches. We asked Grok: What are the top 10 biggest soccer matches in terms global spectators?

1. World Cup Final - 1-1.5 BILLION (Argentina v France hit 1.5B)

2. Champions League Final - 500-700 Million (Real Madrid v Liverpool hit 700M)

3. Real Madrid v Barcelona (El Clasico, Spain) - 100 M is typical but for big matches more (650M in 2017)

4. Manchester United v Liverpool (Northwest Derby) - Typically between 400-550M

5. Manchester United v Manchester City (Manchester Derby) - 350-650M

6. Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund (Der Klassiker) - 350-500M

7. AC Milan v Inter Milan (Derby della Madonnina)- 300-500M

8. Arsenal v Tottenham (North London Derby) - 300-500M.

9. Liverpool v Everton (Merseyside Derby) - 250-450M.

Other Huge matches outside the top 10 but get 100M+.

• Boca Juniors v River Plate (Superclasico, Argentina)

• Galatasaray v Fenerbahce (Intercontinental Derby, Turkey).

• Ajax v Feyenoord (De Klassieker, Netherlands).

• Celtic v Rangers (Old Firm Derby - Scotland).

• Dortmund v Schalke 04 (Revierderby).

• PSG v Marseille (Le Classique).

🎱Off Island 🏝️🏝️🏝️

Some interesting facts on the Run for the Roses…

• The 1 ¼ mile long race is restricted to 3-year-olds only.

• All thoroughbred racehorses have the same birthday - January 1. No matter the day a horse is born during the year, racehorse age is marked from New Year’s Day to help keep track of bloodlines.

• The Derby was started by Lewis Clark Jr - grandson of William Clark - of the famous explorers Lewis and Clark who saw the Epsom Derby in England.

• 120,000 Mint Julep’s will be served this weekend.

• Secretariat, 1973, holds the record at 1:59.4s.

Secretariat

• In the 2025 Running - EVERY HORSE was a descendant of Secretariat.

• This year - 19 of the 20 horses are descendants of Secretariat, the 1 that is not: 15 Emerging Market.

CS Run for the Roses PREDICTION

If you’ve followed CS preview derby picks, it’s a process of elimination.

• Starting gates were introduced in 1930, two positions have NEVER seen a winner 1, 17.

• That eliminates this year’s favorite, Renegade 4-1. Betting favorites have won about 33% of the races.

• Post Position 5 has had the most winners, 10.6% of the time.

• PP 10, 8, 15 have won between 9.5-10.4% of the time each.

• Horses with 30-1 odds or more have won just 6 races all time, but 4 of those have been since 2005 including and 80-1 win in 2022.

  • The last 4 winners odds were 18-1, 15-1, 80-1 and 7-1 (Post Position 18).

• Post positions 6, 11, 12 and 14 have won < 3% of the time.

• Post Positions 17-22 average a 10th place finish or worse in all races and just 2 times have those starting positions had a winner, in 2012.

• Horses with their names beginning with the letter S have won the Derby 20 times, more than any other letter, including last year’s Sovereignty win.

• International Horses have won just 4 times - and none since 1971. (1917, 1959, 1964, 1971).

• Two scratches - Positions 13 Silent Tactic & 20 Renegade.

• The track is expected to be FAST with good weather.

  • 7, 10, 17 are hurt by the Fast Track.

By process of elimination - We are Narrowed Down

7 Horses Left - Now Looking to Narrow the List

• Pedigree matters

  • Into Mischief (sire of the last few winners including last year’s Sovereignty) has two runners: 6 Commandment and 14 Potente. A reason to pick 14 Potente.

• The track is expected to be FAST with good weather.

  • 14 Potente will benefit from this as front runners.

  • 5 Right to Party, 8 So Happy, 9 The Puma will benefit from this as stalkers and closers.

• The 1 ¼ Mile track is long, which horses can handle the extra distance.

• But, early speed Horses on the outside have farther to run and could struggle finishing.

  • 14 Potente is out.

• Experience can help in the Derby, it’s loud and crowded and can spook horses.

  • Emerging Market has just won 3 races, has the potential and could win, but won’t. 15 Emerging Market is out.

• Incredibolt’s and 5 Right to Party odds are close to 30-1, not gonna stretch that far. 11 Incredibolt and 5 Right to Party is out.

3 Horses Left - Now Looking to Pick 1

• Between 8, 9 12

  • 8 So Happy is in a great position for the type of race he wants to run, out front. Can he hold on.

  • 9 The Puma has a trainer who won the Derby in 2023, and they will try to let the speed set a fast pace and plan to be a closer. Can the extra distance be enough for The Puma to win at the wire.

  • 12 Chief Wallabee has last year’s trainer/owner combination and a great jockey in Alvarado.

PREDICTION

• WIN 12 Chief Wallabee

• PLACE 9 The Puma - will challenge late and fall just short

• Show 8 So Happy - will be near the front early but get passed late.

9️⃣ CS World Cup Corner 🌎🍵🏪

41 Days

🔟Best Bets

• MW 32 UP $87

• MW 33 ($6)

• MW 34 ($20)

Match Week 34 Results

One Bet Per Match This Week

Leeds to Win v Burnley -235. $47

A chance for Leeds to secure staying up, at Elland Road, against a side that just sacked their manager and have been relegated. Laying the big line.

BHA to Win at Newcastle +164. $20

The Seagulls have been playing their best soccer of the season and while the long trip North is never easy Newcastle have not been as dominant at St James’ Park this season. Take the bigger odds.

Sunderland to Win at Wolves +133. $20

The Black Cat’s got embarrassed at home last time out and while they have not been great at home they are much better than Wolves this year.

Brentford v West Ham over 2.5 goals -154. $31

In their last 8 matches Bee’s and their opponents have scored 3+ goals 5 times. 3 of the matches ended 0-0. So will this be scoreless or high scoring? We are going with high scoring.

Arsenal to Win by 1.5 goals or more v Fulham +122. $20

Arsenal have not scored more than 1 goal in their last 8 matches. They know they are living on the edge. That changes at home against the Cottagers.

Bournemouth to Win v Palace -165. $33

Cherries will be the better side at home. Willing to play the higher odds.

Liverpool at Man United over 3.5 goals +120. $20

There will be goals. Both sides are sitting in CL spots but would tell you they are not where they want to be. Expecting one side to get up early and the game to open up.

Villa to Win v Spurs +111. $20

Even though Villa had to play Thursday in the Europa League they will head to Villa Park looking to secure CL for next season. Who is going to score for Spurs, too many injuries. Spurs are playing to avoid relegation, but at Villa Park is not the place to expect points.

Man City to Win at Everton -228. $45

Just seems like Pep and City will be playing their best down the stretch and Everton have not been a lock at Hill-Dickinson.

Chelsea v Forest Both Teams To Score -151. $30

Good News! Chealsea finally score again in the PL. And Forests will find the net at least once.