Match Week 34 Preview

EPL Match Week 34 Preview

“Great moments are born from great opportunity…” ~Herb Brooks

This speech (youtube 2m) would play today for the teams looking for Glory in Europe and the Champions League, just like it did in 1980. Vince Vaugn Agrees…..(youtube 45s)

Seems like the Premier League needed some of this motivation as they have been very disappointing across Europe this season. The Champions League and Europa League will be England-less, and that’s disappointing as the Finals will be held in London and Dublin. Last season the EPL was the best league in the world - this year it looks like Germany. For the latest results, check out Off Island 🏝️.

In Today’s CleanSheet:

• Headlines 📌

• Current Situation📈📉

• Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥- Pitch Invasions

• Off Island 🏝️ - European Semi-Finals

• Best Bets 💰

Headlines 📌

• Pencil It In. Everton v Forest +240 730am Sun - Feels like a 3-team race to avoid the last relegation spot and these 2 are in the middle of it. This match won’t decide anything but will give the winner an advantage. Forest has been the better side and Everton have TWO wins over their last 16, both against Burnley.

• 3.4. Weekend. 3 Saturday, 4 Sunday.

• 3 Rescheduled. Man United - Newcastle, Tottenham-City, BHA-Chelsea are all rescheduled as MU, City and Chelsea are playing in the FA Cup this weekend.

• Rebound. How will Arsenal and Liverpool rebound after a rough week. Both head on the road, are favored, but will be tough places to play.

• Relegation Battles. 4 of the bottom 5 teams play each other, a win could go a long way to staying up.

• FA Cup Semi-Finals. Both games will be played at Wembly Stadium in London.

  • Man City (-179) v Chelsea (+420). Saturday 1115am.

  • Coventry (+490) v Man United (-222). Sunday 930am.

• Mid-week Make-Ups. CS will have insight into the 6 mid-week matches in Tuesday’s edition. Here’s a quick look at the teams playing Tue-Wed-Thur, including all three title contenders.

  • Tue - Arsenal v Chelsea (London Derby)

  • Wed - Everton v Liverpool (Merseyside Derby)

  • Wed - Wolves v Bournemouth

  • Wed - Man U v Sheffield U

  • Wed - Palace v Newcastle

  • Thur - BHA v City

What 2 Look 4 👀- Match Week 34

Title Race Impact 🏇🏿🏇🏿

• Wolves v Arsenal -180 Sat - Are the Gunner’s running out of ammunition? Is this a repeat of last year? Those questions will be on display this weekend. Who will play? It’s been a tough week with a mid-week trip, and loss, at Munich. Wolves are short of Forwards. It’s been a great run so far, but they need more firepower and are shorthanded due to injury. This is a true gut check for Mikel Arteta’s team.

• Fulham v Liverpool -135 Sun - Liverpool have been creating lots of chances but the finishing has dried up. FFC sits solidly in the middle of the table, looking great at time and not so great at other times. This season FFC have W2 L2 at home to the top sides. This is a true gut check for Jurgen Klopp’s team.

• Tottenham v Man City - Postponed.

Race For Europe🏎️🏎️🏎️

• Villa v Bournemouth +300 Sun - Villa have played on Sunday more than any other PL team, 17, and are 9W 4D 4L. The Cherries started the season without a win in 9, then lost only 1 time in the next 9, then didn’t win in 7, then lost only 1 time in 7. Bottom line, a mid-week match in Lille that went 120 min and into penalties is gonna’ take a toll on Villa.

• Tottenham v Man City - Postponed.

• Man United v Newcastle - Postponed.

• Palace v West Ham +230 Sun - Have not fully understood these teams all season. Liverpool just couldn’t score at home to Palace, but credit to Palace for forcing Liverpool into that situation. West Ham at times doesn’t even look like they are trying to score. West Ham’s mid-week match against Leverkusen maybe be a strain on the bench.

• Chelsea v BHA - Postponed.

• Wolves v Arsenal -180 Sat - See Above.

Race to Avoid Relegation🌋🌋🌋🌋

• Sheffield United v Burnley +145 Sat - In the last 5 the home team is 4W 1D when these sides play. Burnley have quietly had a really good 6 match run, but GK errors have cost them the points they need to climb out of relegation. The Blades have been in tight matches and drew with Chelsea and FFC at home recently. It may be too little too late for either side, but a Win here could spark a final run to get out of the bottom.

• Everton v Forest +240 Sun - See Above.

• Luton Town v Brentford +135 Sat - The Hatters have scored in 20 of their last 21 but it has only resulted in 5 wins. There is still belief in staying up and getting home points is key. The Bee’s seem to play to their opponents, every match is close. Expect scoring, and late drama.

• Palace v West Ham +230 Sun - See Above.

Current Situation 📈📉

Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥

Pitch Invasions

CS will be highlighting those clubs across the EFL and Europe that have been promoted and relegated. You can see the CS overview here.

Not only does it mean a lot to the community and supporters, but it means significant $$$ for the clubs to take one step closer to being crowned the best of England.

Rough additional revenue for clubs in each league.

• $200M+ revenue for being in the PL.

• $10M for being in the Championship.

• $2M for being in League 1.

• 1M for being in League 2.

Promotions

• Portsmouth back into the Championship - Pitch Invasion - this club won the FA Cup inn 2008 but struggled since including 4 years in League 2. Also, GREAT DRONE FOOTAGE! Also, O’Neil’s Pub - the morning after.

• Mansfield clinch a spot in League 1 - Pitch Invasion - last time they were in League 1, 2003.

• Chesterfield was this year’s Wrexham, winning (Level 5), and now heads back to League 2. Great Pitch Level Pitch Invasion.

Off Island 🏝️

Champions League Semi-Finals Set.

Both favored English sides are out of the CL and Germany is flexing its muscle.

• 2 German’s, a Frenchman and a Spaniard walk into a pub….. or at least some of them will when London hosts the Champions League Final later this year and no English side will be in it.

  • Borussia Dortmund (5-4 aggregate) 4-2 Atletico Madrid. Dortmund with 4 goals, 2 within 3’ of each other at 71’ and 74’ complete the comeback. It was a crazy 2H - here are the highlights (X 2m).

  • Barcelona 1-4 (4-6) Paris St Germain. This match turned on this red card (X) at the 29’ with Barcelona up 4-2 on aggregate. As CS posted on X, “Direct line to keeper, hand def pulled the attacker, and the launch/leaving the feet - which may or may not have had more contact - was a look of being out of control”.

  • Man City 1-1(4-4) Penalties 3-4 Real Madrid. Defending title holders and this is the best Silva can do during PKs?

  • Bayern Munich (3-2) 1-0 Arsenal. Harry Kane may no longer be at Tottenham, but he still found a way to beat Spurs biggest rival, Arsenal, all the way from Munich.

• Odd to win it all: Real Madrid +142, PSG +160, Bayern +270, Dortmund +860.

Europa League Semi-Finals

2 Italians a German and a Frenchman walk into a Rathskeller…..

• Atalanta (3-1) 0-1 Liverpool.

• West Ham 1-1 (1-3) Leverkusen. That is 44 unbeaten this season for Bayer Leverkusen.

• Roma (3-1) 2-1 AC Milan.

• Marseille (2-2, 4-2 Pens) 1-0 Benfica.

Europa Conference League

A Greek, a Belgian, an Italian and a Brit walk into a Cafe…..

• A great Win for Villa at Lille, in Penalties.

  • Emi Martinez, the Argentinian GK, was the Keeper who beat France in the World Cup Final shoot out. Lille fans booed him the entire match. So, what does he do - beats a French team in penalties again.

  • Two penalties saved, quieting the crowd, almost getting kicked out, and then the Save to win it, the drama from Martinez and the drama from the fans - awesome.

Best Bets 💰

Error of Recency Theory -

• In psychology, the Recency Effect says you are more likely to remember and recall the most recent things first.

• In wagering, Mr X (callmemrx.com) talks a lot about Error of Recency Theory - bettors make mistakes by making decisions based on what happened to a team most recently.

• CS will be leveraging this theory this week.

Match Week 34 - Winners Only Please

Luton Town to Win v Brentford +210. $20

Last weekend the Hatters got hammered at City. The Bee’s won 2-0 over the Blades. LT have lost 3 of last 4, and Brentford are 1W3D in their last 4. So, Brentford is the play. OR, might that be an Error of Recency. LT have scored in 19 of their last 20, are looking for all 3 points at home and Bee’s are 1D 4L in their last 5 road matches.

Sheffield United to Win v Burnley +175. $20

Burnley have lost 3-6 points, depending on how you count, on GK errors. 3 in just the last 2 matches and have only lost 1 time in their last 6. The Blades have not won in 8 matches and are coming off a 0-2 loss at Bees. So, it is clear Burnley will clean up the errors and get the 3 points they deserve. But, not so fast - that would be an Error of Recency. These teams are not that far off from each other, and the home team has never lost in this matchup (4W 1D).

Forest Everton to Draw +250. $20

Cut to the chase, Everton got pounded 0-6 last weekend and Forest have 1W 3D 1L in their last 5. It’s hard to have any confidence in the Toffee’s. So, I lean Forest. But, Sean Dyche is too good a manager to not get a good performance out of his side at home following a good ol’ butt kicking. Add to that the Theory of Error of Recency and I expect Everton to rebound. I just can’t see Everton scoring enough to Win. So, I like the +250 odds of a draw.

Bournemouth to Win at Villa +320. $20

Villa had an emotional win at Arsenal last weekend, boy they played great. The last road trip for the Cherries was a loss at Luton Town, although they did get a point home to Man U. So, while you might want to ride the momentum Villa seem to have, they did have to travel to Lille in the ECL Thursday and their bench will be tested. The Cherries have been playing well and this match will not be easy for Villa so I like the +320 odds.

Fulham to score first at Liverpool +164. $20

Liverpool to Win 2H v Fulham -137. $27

No Error of Recency here, just that Liverpool seems to start slow and give up goals early. They also create a lot of chances, just haven’t been finishing lately. I expect that to change in the 2H v Fulham.

Longshot of the Week. LT-Brentford, SU-Burnley, Everton-Forest all to Draw +4562. $10

FA Cup Bonus Bets

Man City Chelsea O3.5 +133. $20

Either side could score 4 alone. Will be interesting to see how City handle’s the mid-week PK defeat. How much energy will they bring. Cole Palmer has been on a tear for Chelsea, and they have had a week to rest and prepare. They also had a week to prepare and rest.

Man United to Win v Coventry City -222. $44

Like Chelsea, the FA Cup becomes United Super Bowl. They are just better than Coventry.