Match Week 30 Preview

In Today’s CleanSheet:

• Headlines 📌

• What 2 Look 4 👀 

• Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥- CS Story Time

• Off Island 🏝️ - EURO2024

• Best Bets 💰

Headlines 📌

• Title Race Impact Matches, Pencil It In. Man City v Arsenal +300 (Sun) - The Jedi Master (Pep) versus the Padawan (Arteta). Arteta spent over 3 years on Pep’s staff, and they have similar approaches and styles. City has not lost a PL match since December, but they do come limping into the home match in a key moment and will be missing Kyle Walker and John Stones. The Gunners beat City 1-0 earlier this season. Much was made about City missing key pieces and Arsenal’s home pitch advantage then. Can the Gunners take the energy on the road and take their physicality to City.

• Relegation Race Impact Matches, Pencil It In. Forest v Palace +240 (Sat) - As it stands, the 4-point deduction imposed on Forest has them in the Relegation Zone. Sitting 14th Palace may feel a little better about their standing but a loss to the Tree’s would put a struggling Palace squarely in the conversation. Both sides are on new managers, Nuno for Forest and Oliver Glasner for Palace and both have yet to turn their club’s season’s around.

• 8.2. Weekend. 8 Saturday, 2 Sunday.

• Back From Break. How teams handle the break can vary significantly, and many teams are more impacted than others dependent on how many players traveled and played on their national teams. Fortunately for some, many of the friendly matches were played in England - for example Brazil played England in Wembly stadium and beat them 1-0.

• Rumours (Rumors). ten Hag will be replaced at United. O’Neil will leave Wolves to replace him. Or is it Southgate from the national team? Alonso will leave Bayern Leverkusen and go to Liverpool, until he said this week he is staying at Bayern. So it’s Amorim heading to Liverpool? Do you manage in the PL? Better have thick skin and ignore the rumour mill.

• Full Saturday. Matches start at 730am cst, 5 at 10am, 1 at 1230 and 1 at 3.

What 2 Look 4 👀- Match Week 30

Title Race Impact 🏇🏿🏇🏿

• Man City v Arsenal +300 (Sun) - See Above.

• Liverpool v BHA +600 (Sun) - BHA has lost only 1 of the last 6 to Liverpool. Liverpool will need to keep their focus on their own match, and Klopp is good at doing that. A win and a City- Arsenal Draw or City Win puts the Reds back on top. BHA has looked like a young team with additional Europe matches - as the season has gone on they have looked tired. Mo Salah should be healthy for the stretch run.

Race For Europe 🏇🏿🏇🏿🏇🏿🏇🏿🏇🏿

• Villa v Wolves +360 (Sat) - Wolves have had a lot of success against Villa 3W 3D in last 6, including 2W 2D at Villa in last 4. Can they forget about their FA Cup loss to Coventry? The break may have come at a good time. If Villa expects to earn a CL spot, they will need to take care of business at home against a team looking for Europe as well. Villa Park was magical early in the year, but Villa have struggled at home of late.

• Tottenham v Luton Town +900 (Sat) - Spurs have 9W in 10 against newly promoted sides and have 6W 4D in their last 10 against the LT. The Hatters got a gift when Forest were penalized 4 points, and Everton 6 earlier this year. They will need to now go earn their points to stay up however in 6 matches against the top sides of the table they have 1D 5L.

• Newcastle v West Ham +300 (Sat) - Which team shows up. These two have been the hardest to predict all year. The Magpies have not lost to London clubs at home this year and usually have a great home field advantage. When the Hammers lose on the road, they seem to get blown out. First goal wins?

• Brentford v Man United +120 (Sat) - The Bee’s have really struggled against the top clubs this year and they are 1D 5L in their last 6 overall. United continues to play better and better, will that continue? They have been counting on the youngster Mainoo who had his first England call up over the International Break.

• Chelsea v Burnley +900 (Sat) - It doesn’t matter who Burnlely play or where, they need to take the momentum from their win over Brentford and start stacking the wins. They have looked good for 70’ but have been dominated in the final 20’ of matches. Chelsea have scored in all 17 of their PL matches against Burnley and have won 5 of their last 6 PL matches overall which is one more than they had won in their previous 22.

Race to Avoid Relegation 🏇🏿🏇🏿🏇🏿🏇🏿🏇🏿

• Forest v Palace +230 (Sat) - See Above.

• Tottenham v Luton Town +900 (Sat) - See Above.

• Chelsea v Burnley +900 (Sat) - See Above.

• Sheffield United v Fulham -140 (Sat) - Fulham have dominated SU in their last 6 with 5W 1D. Sheffield United have been a sieve all year, the question is can they score. Fulham has taken points in 6 of their last 8 allowing 8 goals overall.

• Bournemouth v Everton +220 (Sat) - It’s been a 3 week break for the Toffee’s so they took the club to train in Portugal to prepare for the stretch run, and they should benefit from it as they are without a win in the last 11. The Cherries last match was their come from behind win 4-3 at Luton Town, they are 2W 1D in their last 3.

Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥 - CS Story Time 🍺🍹🥃

It was early 2000’s and a young CS was traveling to Turin, Italy on business working as a consultant to Fiat Corporation. In preparation for a meeting, I joined Italian colleagues Enrico, Gianni B and Carmella for dinner and the topic of Juve came up, meaning Juventus. You see, Juve had a big Champions League match coming up, and I had no idea what my colleagues were talking about. Having grown up with a 100% US view of sports (baseball, football, basketball, golf, etc) I knew little to nothing about Soccer, much less European Soccer.

Whether it was embarrassment, narrow mindedness, stupidity or most likely all of the above - it was one of the moments I decided I would become more knowledgeable on European Soccer and other cultures/history in general.

Fast forward to new clients and new locations over the next 20+ years, two things happened. One, I met many clients and colleagues where so much great conversations and friendships included talking European Soccer. Two, the more I learned the more I loved following the leagues and competitions. All of which will be a part of future CS Story Times.

One of the things I miss most about working with clients and colleagues from Europe are the conversations about sport - which revolve around their Club, Leagues, and National Teams. My experience is most traditional US sports fans just don’t understand European Soccer and that makes it hard to get into it. In addition, those fans are influenced by a US Soccer culture that is VERY different from European Soccer and other US Sports.

This is one of the main reasons the CleanSheet was created. Let’s see where it goes.

Off Island 🏝️

Qualification (The European Qualifiers) started in March 2023, and during last week’s International Break the final three teams to qualify were:

• Georgia by beating Greece.

• Ukraine by beating Iceland.

• Poland by beating Wales.

Here are the teams to qualify and the Groups they drew.

The Tournament kicks off June 14 with Germany (the host country) hosting Scotland.

ODDS to WIN

Best Bets 💰

Looking for Guest Picker’s. Send CS an email if you are interested!

CleanSheet Season Gains/Losses: Starting Balance $1000. Current Standing $1,254.

Man City to Draw v Arsenal +270. $20

Gunners have been gunning for this match and City is dealing with injuries coming out of the break. Expect a close one.

Everton to Draw at Bournemouth +260. $20

5 Draws in their last 8 for Everton, 4 for Bournemouth. Play the odds.

Fulham to Win at Sheffield United -135. $27

I’m not sold on Fulham, but I’m definitely not sold on the Blades and willing to pay extra. It’s possible SU struggles to score and Fulham will find a couple.

Villa Wolves to Draw +320. $20

Wolves get Cunha back from a hamstring injury and he can really stretch the field. Villa has been up and down recently with 1W 3L in their last 4 at home. Wolves will not make this easy for Villa and they will look to take a point and or steal 3 at the end. Like the 320 odds for a draw.

Tottenham to Win v Luton Town by 2 +272. $10

Tottenham to Win v Luton Town by 3+ +101. $10

Spurs have been scoring in bunches, they are also healthy coming out of the break. Luton Town has struggled on the road on the defensive end. I expect Spurs to score, the question is can LT score. The answer, probably not enough to keep it close.

Chelsea to Win v Burnley 2-0 +500. $10

Chelsea to Win v Burnley 3-0 +600. $10

Chelsea will score, will Burnley? Maybe, but I like the odds for a CleanSheet so will take a run at exact scores.

Forest to Win v Palace +120. $20

I trust Nuno to use the break and make a run. I don’t trust Palace on the road or the form they are in.

Liverpool to Win v BHA & O3.5 +117. $20

Liverpool to Win v BHA to score first +525. $10

Liverpool has been winning but not shutting teams out and I don’t expect them to win just 2-1, so like the O3.5 goals per match. In fact, Liverpool has made a habit of falling behind 0-1 many times this season but have won those matches and often by multiple goals.