Match Week 3 Preview

EPL Match Week 3 Preview

It’s not just MW3 in the EPL or the official Week 1 start to the College Football season this Labor Day weekend - it’s Jimmy Buffett Day! Here’s a link to all the festivities at Margaritaville Resorts, including Jimmy’s Sirius XM channel where they are counting down the top 100 Jimmy Buffett Songs. Here’s CS’s top 5 songs and top 5 albums. Agree? What say you? Send CS your fav’s.

In Today’s CleanSheet:

• Headlines 📌

• Current Situation📈📉

• Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥- The Toffee’s

• Off Island 🏝️ - Actually, On Island

• Best Bets 💰

Check out CS’s FIRST EVER “AD” - please give it a CLICK.

Headlines 📌

• CS Match of the Week. Man United v Liverpool, Sat 1130am - Northwest Derby (wiki), one of the major rivalries in all of sport. MU have 83W, Liverpool 71W and there are 60D. It’s not common for the road team to be favored but that’s the case as the Reds travel the 30 miles East to Manchester where United are +230 and Liverpool +105. Going to be a lot of pressure on Erik ten Hag after last week’s late loss at Brighton. This will be a great opportunity for Arne Slot and Liverpool to stay top of table and send their rival into a tailspin in just MW3.

• 7.3. Weekend. 7 Saturday, 3 Sunday. Same schedule as MW2.

• Transfer Window. The window closes later today, 5pm cst. (August 30)

  • You can catch some of the key players update here from the SkySports

  • Too many moves for CS to comment on them all. Some of the higher profile moves on people’s radar (Current Club): Raheem Sterling (Chelsea), Ivan Toney (Brentford), Jadon Sancho (MU), Aaron Ramsdale (Arsenal), Onana (Everton).

  • CS just heard of this account - 22M followers - and @FabrizioRomano (X) is all over all the movement of players in the soccer world. Great Account!

• CS TK Water Cooler.

  • 70. Last Saturday there were 44 international soccer matches available in the USA, add to that the 26 US matches (MLS and USL) and that is the most matches available on a single day in the US.

  • 1 of 18. In the first 2 match weeks the recently promoted teams (Leicester, Ipswich, Southampton) had a combined potential for 18 points (6 matches x 3 points). They combined for 1 point. There’s been a lot of talk about how hard it has gotten for recently promoted sides to stay up given the new financial rules. Something to keep an eye on.

  • Champions League. The simple description for this competition is - The top clubs across Europe play in a 36-team competition to crown the best in Europe and, since Europe has the best clubs, in the World.

    • The format is new this season.

    • We will take a deeper dive in next Tuesday’s CS in the Off Island 🔥🔥Section.

    • 4 EPL clubs are in the tournament - Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool and Aston Villa.

    • Fun 5 min video if you are interested - Zlatan explaining the changes.

    • If you’d like to jump in before next week her is the UEFA CL website.

  • Oasis. Lots of excitement coming out of the UK and around English Soccer as Oasis, the band from Manchester and known City fans announced they are “getting the band back together”.

What 2 Look 4 👀- Match Week 3

5 Teams Favored with “-” odds➖➖➖➖➖

• Arsenal v BHA Sat 630am - Two sides off to great starts sitting atop the table. The Gunners are -303 at the Emirates against an undefeated Seagulls side (+600) that seem to be fitting right into Hurzeler’s style and approach. BHA’s road win at Everton is looking less impressive but a win against United is always solid. Arsenal have yet to allow a goal and have looked just plain solid.

• West Ham v Man City Sat 1130am - City head to London Stadium as -250 favorites against a Hammers side (+650) that seems to have started to gel in Lopetegui’s approach. West Ham’s 2H at Palace showed great adjustment on the road. City just seems to be in cruise mode so far. They make winning look easy, and their side has only gotten stronger. The Hammers will need that 2H connection from last week early and often against City.

• Brentford v Southampton Sat 9am - The Bee’s head home -135 over the Saints +340 after a tough loss at Anfield. Thomas Frank continues to get the most out of his side while Southampton has looked like a recently promoted side short on talent, and goals. Defensively the Saints have been solid, but only generating 5 shots at home to Forest is a problem.

• Chelsea v Palace Sun 730am - Did the Blues (-125) find the formula in the 2H against Wolves or were Wolves just bad. Either way, it was impressive. As for the Eagles (+340) it’s been a disappointing start with 0 points from winnable games. The shots have been there, just not the conversions.

• Man United +280 v Liverpool -120 Sun 10am - See Above.

5 Teams Favored with “+” odds➕➕➕➕➕

• Leicester City v Villa Sat 9am - Villa (+100) head to the King Power Stadium to take on a Foxes (+280) side still looking for starters in the transfer window. The one thing LCFC does still have is veteran Jamie Vardy - who, if in the lineup - seems to find the net. Will this be a letdown after a tough home loss to Arsenal. Villa has talent and traveled well last season, it’s surprising they are not bigger favorites.

• Forest v Wolves +260 Sat 9am - Big, dominating win for the Trees (+115) last week outshooting Southampton in Saint Mary’s Stadium 24-5 and allowing just one shot on goal. They will be looking for more of the same as a wounded Wolves side (+260) come staggering into Community Stadium licking their wounds allowing 4 2H goals home to Chelsea.

• Newcastle v Tottenham Sun 730am - Spurs (+145) head north to St James Park to take on a Newcastle side (+150) that has earned 4 points so far but looked anything but solid. Against two projected bottom of the table sides the Magpies have found the net just twice and been outshot 35-7 on the season. Spurs have also earned 4 points and have played two projected bottom of the table sides, but they’ve looked great in 3 of their 4 halves. You would expect goals in this one, and the O/U number is set at 3.5.

• Ipswich Town v Fulham Sat 9am - The Tractor Boys (+190) have been soundly beaten to start the season, but it’s been against City and Liverpool - most teams will have 2 losses in that stretch. This week is their chance to get on the board against a Fulham side (+135) that has yet to really establish who they plan to be this season. Last year, Fulham rarely lost or won back-to-back. Maybe this is Ipswich Towns chance to take 3 points.

• Everton v Bournemouth Sat 9am - The Toffee’s (+175) have really struggled so far (See the Hot Topic 🔥🔥Section below) and a home loss to a bottom of the table candidate Bournemouth (+155) would really create problems. The Cherries have looked better than advertised so far drawing both matches 1-1 and really deserving the win last weekend but it will be no easy task taking on Everton at Goodison park with their backs against the wall.

Current Situation 📈📉

Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥

Everton (The Toffees)

Something to keep an eye on - although it’s way too early to make assumptions after 2 matches of 38 - one book maker did just that, Paddy Power (UK Bookmaker) took some drastic action. (talkSPORT)

Are the Toffees Melting?

First, some quick background.

Everton have been in the top division of English Soccer longer than any other club, 122 years, 71 consecutive. Only Arsenal are on a longer run at 99. Since 1892 the club’s home has been at Goodison Park. They will say goodbye to the “Grand Old Lady” at the end of this season and move 2 miles to Bramley-Moore Stadium at Bramley-Moore Dock on the Merseyside River in Liverpool. The new stadium will be 30% bigger, holding over 53,000 fans.

Scenario

It would be so “Everton” to be relegated the year before moving into their new stadium.

Could It Happen?

• Blowouts. The Toffee’s have had a BAD start to say the least: 0 points, 0 goals, 2 blow outs.

• 14 Players. In only MW2 manager Sean Dyche came out and said they only had 14 players available for the clubs first team. Even though there are injuries and suspensions that’s a very small number for this early in the season.

• Sack Race. Gaffer Sean Dyche has moved into the lead for the first PL Manager to leave their club at +600.

• Paddy Power. The bookmaker has decided to pay out all the bettors who placed a bet on Everton to be relegated, +500. This means they are closing all future bets for Everton to be relegated as well. Now, this might be a marketing ploy. But still not a good look.

It is WAY too early to say Everton will be a relegation candidate late in the season. Just look at last year, as the club were deducted 8 points and easily stayed up. But it is definitely something to keep an eye on, I’m sure it’s crossed their fans mind.

For more on The Toffees, check out the Everton CS Season Preview.

Off Island 🏝️

The Championship & the “Moose Cup”

As a reminder - here is the how English Soccer “levels” work.

The Championship started the week before the PL, so they are 3 games in. Here’s a quick update:

• Burnley, Luton Town and Sheffield United were relegated from the PL down to The Championship last season and so far, it’s been a mixed bag.

  • Luton Town have just 1 point, losing to Burnley and Preston and drawing with Portsmouth.

  • Sheffield United have 3 points, beating Preston and drawing with QPR and Norwich. Shouldn’t that be 5 points? Yes, but SU have been deducted 2 points for missing transfer payments.

  • Burnley have 6 points, beating Luton Town and Cardiff but losing at Sunderland.

    • Burnley is WINNING on their social media account with their post on the acquisition of Hannibal Mejbri. Didn’t know people were named Hannibal these days. (Hello, Clarice).

  • Sunderland and Watford top the table with 9 points each.

  • Millwall, Luton Town and Cardiff sit in the relegation zone with 1 point.

The Carabao Cup = EFL Cup = “Moose Cup”

In parallel to the regular season in England there are TWO additional tournaments contested. The FA Cup (considered the most prestigious) is an open competition for ALL clubs down thru Level 11 (See graphic above). The Carabao Cup is a competition for all the clubs Level 1-4 ONLY.

Last season Liverpool hoisted the Cup for the TENTH time, more than any other club, next on the list is City with eight.

If you are interested in learning more, here’s a good article from 90min.com.

Best Bets 💰

Match Week 3 - Winners Only Please

All “+” Odds this week.

Villa to Win at LCFC +100. $20

Villa’s better and getting “+” odds. The Foxes are going to have a hard time scoring goals with so many injuries up front, unless Vardy does what he did against Spurs MW1. It’s possible Villa have a letdown after the tough loss home to Arsenal last week, but not probable. A healthy LCFC and this match would be different, and the depth is not there to overcome the Villains.

Liverpool to win at Man United +105. $20

That finish at BHA stung United and while they look much better than last season it’s hard to think they will put it all together this early in the season under EtH. Liverpool have a veteran team who will be up for this Northwest Derby and a chance to put their rival out of the top 10. It just seems that a favored side at Old Trafford will use all 90 minutes to find a way to win at the end.

Arsenal to win v BHA AND both teams score +125. $20

Considered the Draw here, but the Gunners seem to be on a mission. I do not expect a letdown after the big win at Villa. I also suspect Arsenal will not go the full season putting up clean sheets. BHA will apply pressure, grab a goal but ultimately fall 2-1 or 3-1. I like getting “+” odds on arsenal giving up a goal.

Chelsea to win v Palace AND over 2.5 match goals +108. $20

Concern here of falling into the error of recency - seeing the Blues score 4 in the 2H last week and 6 overall and knowing Palace have yet to win. Don’t overthink it, Chelsea are better, Enzo seems to have their ear and Stamford Bridge is a definite home pitch advantage.

Everton to Draw v Bournemouth +230. $20

Must win for Everton as a potential relegation contender Bournemouth head into Goodison Park. The Cherries have drawn both their matches this season 1-1 while Everton have been pummeled in both. A blowout here seems less likely, and while Everton really needs all 3 points turn around a difficult start, this feels like a tight match. So, take the highest “+” odds on the board. A draw.

Spurs to win at Newcastle +145. $20

Newcastle have been slow to start, and Spurs learned their lesson at LCFC when they gave away 2 points in the second half. There is always a lot of talk about the home pitch advantage at St James’ Park, and rightly so. Add to that Spurs have struggled “up there” and seem to score less on the road than at home under Ange. Yet, it seems Spurs learned their lesson at LCFC when they gave away 2 points in the second half and that the firepower for Spurs will offset the home pitch advantage of the Geordies. I like getting +145 for the better side.

Fulham to win at Ipswich +244. $20

Both defenses have not been strong to start the season, and this feels like a game where both sides will be looking to attack which could lead to lots of shots, and goals. I just don’t see Ipswich being able to keep up with FFC. Expect both sides to score, The Cottagers to score at least one more.