- CleanSheetEPL
- Posts
- Match Week 29 Preview
Match Week 29 Preview
Cherrie Blossoms, Frank Reich, & Helltown Beer
Cherries! Not the blossoms in springtime DC, but the club from Bournemouth that became the third team in PL history to come back from a 3-0 HT deficit. The other two? Man United over Spurs 5-3 in 2001 and Wolves 4-3 over Leicester in 2003. Bournemouth 4-3 Luton Town.
AND, check out the Hot Topic🔥🔥🔥 Section for some of sports greatest comebacks.
In Today’s CleanSheet:
Headlines đź“Ś
What 2 Look 4 đź‘€
Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥- Greatest Comebacks
Off Island 🏝️ - Elite 8 (Quarterfinals) in Europe & US National Teams Update
Best Bets đź’°
Headlines đź“Ś
FA Cup Weekend. It’s the quarterfinals of the FA CUP. Winners advance to the Semi’s on April 20. 6 PL teams and 2 Championship teams remain. As a result, the following games are postponed to a future date - teams in BOLD will play in FA Cup.
Man United v Sheffield United
Arsenal v Chelsea
Palace v Newcastle
Wolves v Bournemouth
Everton v Liverpool
BHA v Man City
Here is a more detailed breakdown of the matches (thefa.com)
English Soccer knockout competition open to ALL eligible clubs down to Level 9, roughly 750 teams per tournament. Many consider the FA cup a bigger achievement than winning the PL. The winner qualifies for the following years Europa League, which can be big for those not in the top 7 of the PL table. Man City are reigning champions.
For a reminder on how English Football works - CleanSheet Primer.
Pencil This One In. Relegation on the Line. Luton Town v Forest, Saturday, 10am cst. The Hatters had a chance to jump ahead of Forest mid-week holding a 3-0 HT lead (discussed above) before the wheels fell off, but they get another chance to jump over the Trees at home this weekend. Luton have 3W 2D in their last 5 against Forest. After the change to manager Nuno Espirito Santo Forest got a couple wins but it’s been 1W 1D in their last 8.
3.1. Weekend. 3 Saturday, 1 Sunday.
Salah. Mo Salah was back in Liverpool’s lineup after being injured last month in Egypt’s African Cup of Nations tournament. He did not disappoint. 1 goal, 3 assists and man of the match.
CBS & Paramount+. If you haven’t checked out the studio show for the Champions League, it’s a great watch. You can check out many of their clips at @CBSSportsGolazo on X. This 1 min clip is a good intro.
Most Watched. The PL continues to bring in the numbers. Liverpool v Man City has over 1.7M viewers. @HelltownBeer (X) has been reporting the numbers.
2024 YTD soccer viewership top 15 (league games)
— L W Johnson (@HelltownBeer)
5:51 PM • Mar 14, 2024
What 2 Look 4 đź‘€- Match Week 29
Just 4 Matches This Weekend
4 Home Dogs đźŚđźŚđźŚđźŚ
Burnley v Brentford +115 (Sat) - 1 home win this year for the Clarets and averaging under a goal per game. Brentford have struggled on the road this season losing 6 of their last 7 when traveling. Both sides have only 1 point in their last 5 matches.
Fulham v Tottenham +105 (Sat) - 9 points in their last 5 for FFC, 10 for Spurs. Both coming in playing well but it’s Spurs who have the streak - W9 D1 in their last 10 against Fulham. Spurs have scored in every PL match this season, can they hold FFC to a goal or less and at a minimum get a road point.
Luton Town v Forest +135 (Sat) - See Above.
West Ham v Villa +130 (Sun) - Can anyone figure out the Hammers? Go to their fan sites and there is a lot of frustration with their style of play, but winning solves a lot of problems. A mid-week Europa League win helps. David Moyes has done a great job with this team sitting 7th in the table, yet a home draw to Burnley have people questioning again. Villa on the other hand have won their last 3 road matches 5-0, 2-1, 3-2 but on the year have yet to win in London.
Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥
Bournemouth’s comeback this week got CS thinking about some of the greatest comebacks in sports history - that CS remembers - so since the 1970s. Interestingly, Frank Reich (Football QB) was involved in two of the greatest comebacks in the NFL and NCAA.
NFL
Frank Reich & The Bills 31-Points, 1993 The Houston Oilers held a 35-3 lead only to see the Buffalo Bills come back and win in OT 41-38. You may remember this as the “Frank Reich” game (more on Reich in the NCAA section). Oilers CB Chris Dishman said after the game, “It was the biggest choke job in history.” | 33 Points, 2022 The Minnesota Vikings erased a 33-0 HT deficit versus the Indianapolis Colts to win 39-36 in OT. As @PaulCharchian (owner of Guillotine Leagues and Vikings fan) posted on X - Kirk Cousins: 460 yards, 4 TDs, leader of game winning drive and the QB behind the greatest comeback in NFL history. Suck it, haters. |
NFL Honorable Mention - The New England Patriots were down to the Atlanta Falcons 28-3 with 2 minutes left in the third quarter, tied the game with 1 min left and won in OT 34-28 - IN THE SUPER BOWL!
NCAA - Football
Drew Stanton QB 35 point deficit - 2006 Michigan State trailed Northwestern 38-3 with 10 min left in the 3Q and rallied to score 38 unanswered to win 41-38. The game was representative of the up and down coaching of John L Smith - he was fired after the season. | Reich’s First Comeback 31 point deficit - 1984 Being down 32 was not the first time Frank Reich made comeback history. In 1984, while playing for the Maryland Terrapins, Reich (the backup) came in and led his team back from a 31-point HT deficit to beat the Miami Hurricanes 42-40. Reich threw for 6 TDs in the 2H. Bernie Kosar was on the losing end of the matchup - both Kosar and Reich would play in the NFL. |
NCAA - Basketball
Jamal Mashburn, Tony Delk, Travis Ford and Team 31 Points - Regular Season - 1994 LSU was under .500 and led highly ranked Kentucky 68-37 with 15:30 left to play. From that point on, KY went 12-23 from three while LSU went 12-23 from the line. KY scored the final 9 points of the game to win 99-95. KY Coach Rick Pitino - “I know I’ve never, ever witnessed anything like it.” Dale Brown, LSUs coach - I’m only guessing here - F@(&. | Dookies 22 Points - NCAA Tournament 2001 Maryland led Duke 39-17 with 6 min left in the 1H, however the Blue Devils would win going away, 94-84. Duke would go on to win the NCAA Title over Arizona. You may remember Shane Battier, Jay Williams, Carlos Boozer and Mike Dunleavy Jr |
MLB - Playoff Series
Kurt Schilling - Bloody Sock Game | Down 3 Games to 0, 2004 The New York Yankees led the Boston Red Sox in the ALCS up 3-0.
|
Golf
Just Take A DROP! Very much remember at the time feeling really bad for Jean. | 1999 British Open Jean van de Velde did a Jean van de Velde.. JvdV had a 5 shot lead entering the final round at Carnoustie and a 3 shot lead on the FINAL HOLE. Needed to make 8’ putt for a triple bogey and force a playoff. Justin Leonard and Paul Lawrie joined van de Velde in a 4-hole playoff where Lawrie, who was 10 shots back to start the day went on to win by 3. |
RECENT - Champions League Comeback Memory
May 7, 2019 Anfield Champions League Semi-Finals | Barcelona left Nou Camp (their stadium) with a Leg 1 3-0 win over Liverpool, but they had to travel to Anfield for Leg 2. As a reminder to advance in the CL Semi’s it’s home and away aggregate goals. Since away goals was the tie breaker then, Barca needed just 1 goal to force the Reds to score 5 to win. Liverpool scored at 7’, 79’ and two in between to shock Lionel Messi and Barca 4-0. Here are 3 min of highlights. Sound On! Also, that 4th goal at 1:10. WOW Or - The 4 goals in 40s here. Liverpool went on to win the Champions League Title over Tottenham, led by Harry Kane and manager (and current Chelsea manager) Mauricio Pochettino. |
Off Island 🏝️
Champions League
Champions League Quarterfinals Draw set for 6am cst Friday - depending on when you read the CS you can check out who plays who here.
This Week’s Results
Arsenal advance 1-1 /4-2 pens Arsenal 1-0 Porto Barcelona advance 4-2 Barcelona 3-1 Napoli | B Dortmund advance 3-1 Dortmund 2-0 PSV Eindhoven Atl Madrid advance 2-2/3-2 pens Atletico Madrid 2-1 Inter Milan |
Summary
|
Europa League - 8 teams advance to the Quarters
Liverpool & West Ham advance, BHA get knocked out.
All scores below are Aggregate over the 2 legs.
|
|
Europa Conference League - 8 teams advance to the Quarters
Aston Villa advance.
Olympiacos win at Tel Aviv 6-1 to overcome 4-1 loss.
All scores below are Aggregate over the 2 legs.
|
|
Quick US National Team Check Ins
Congrats! to the USWNT for winning the Concacaf Gold Cup 1-0 over Brazil. A much-needed win heading into an Olympic summer.
More here on the win. (FoxSports)
The US plays Jamaica in the Semi’s March 21. Mexico plays Panama in the other. Winners play for the Title, Losers for 3rd on March 24. | The USMNT announced its roster for the upcoming Concacaf Nations Leagues, and it’s considered their “A” team with significant European influence.
|
Best Bets đź’°
Looking for Guest Picker’s. Send CS an email if you are interested!
Big Cat Is In On CS Bets
CleanSheet Season Gains/Losses: Starting Balance $1000. Current Standing $1,276.
Week 29 Picks WITH FA CUP BONUS PICKS
Luton Town to Draw v Forest +260. $20
The Hatters have lost 3 in a row at home and must be stunned after blowing a 3 goal lead, BUT, Forest has struggled to score - scoring 2 or fewer goals in their last 9 including being shut out in their last 2. Feels like a 1-1, 2-2 draw and Hatters stay 3 points behind the Trees.
Burnley to Draw v Brentford +250. $20.
Burnley has looked good, even with the injuries, for 65’-70’ of their matches. It’s closing out the final 30’ where they seem to run out of gas. Brentford are still not clear of the relegation zone and what feels like a lot of potential to score just hasn’t happened often enough. Burney come out strong, Bees equalize late.
Villa to Win at West Ham+145. $20
Villa to Win at West Ham & Hamers do not Score +330. $20
3 places separate these teams in the table (4th & 7th) but it feels like a wider gap in talent and ability to score. Which Hammers team will show up, the one that will score 5 goals or 0 goals. Villa have scored 14 more goals this season than the Hammers and the road has been good to them. Take the favorite and +130 odds on the road and add a kicker with a win and a shutout.
FA CUP BETS
Man City to win via CleanSheet V Newcastle +120. $20
Man City to win by 2 V Newcastle +260. $20
Man City to win by 3+ V Newcastle +155. $20
When Liverpool won the Carabao Cup a friend of a colleague who knows someone who went to prep school with Pep (City’s Manager) said he heard a bartender say a fan of City said he may have heard Pep say something like this to his team “We better FN win the FA Cup”. Add to that Newcastle was the team to knock City out of the Carabao Cup, and this feels like it could be all City.
Wolves to Win v Fulham +155. $20
Wolves have been a surprise all season and are playing above their PL table position. Coventry sit 8th in the Championship and their run will end at Molineux Stadium by multiple goals.
Leicester City to Win at Chelsea +550. $10
Leicester City to Advance to Semi’s at Chelsea +305. $10
The Foxes sit atop the Championship, although have been struggling of late, and they are a PL team in quality. They have traveled to Samford Bridge and the environment will not be intimidating. Chelsea are, and should be, favored and could possibly take their Carabao Cup final loss and use that as motivation to take another trip to Wembley. Something tells me this will be close, so splitting a taking the odds and splitting it between winning in regulation and advancing.
Liverpool to Win in OT v Man United +700. $10
Liverpool to Win in Penalties v Man United +1200. $10
Man United to Win 1H v Liverpool +285. $10
Liverpool has been on a roll, playing great but can they keep the run going. United has not been United most of the season, especially at home. Liverpool has been on a roll, but can they go into Old Trafford and continue to dominate. After the Carabao Cup championship it was right to PL play mid-week, then a tough trip to Forest, 2 champions league matches and a home draw to City. While Liverpool is probably the right play here laying the -120, something says United will keep it close. So, let’s roll the dice and see if one hits.
Longshot of the week
The Liverpool Man United Plays
Reply