Match Week 27 Preview

Derby, Snug Alert & Dos a Cero

Author

nick lochner
March 01, 2024

In Today’s CleanSheet:

  • Headlines 📌

  • What 2 Look 4 👀 

  • Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥- FA Cup

  • Off Island 🏝️ - Dos e Cero

  • Best Bets 💰

3 Derby Weekend, and a big Derby matchup scheduled in the FA Cup.

Derby English Soccer has hundreds of “Derby’s”, some much bigger than others. A Derby, pronounced “Dahr-bee”, is a clash of “bitter” rivals, but it’s more than a rival, both teams need to be located near each other. Typically, the same city or connected towns. You may have bitter rivals that are not located near each other, that is not a derby (most of the time). It is not clear, but the best guess on where the term “derby” came from is in 1780 the Earl of Derby started horse racing and called it The Derby. In 1840 the word became more of a noun to represent a local sporting contest. Hence, the location component of a rivalry.

It is hard to describe the connection between soccer clubs and the town they are in. It’s an extremely tight bond and the culture of the area and the club are tightly connected. The clubs were started by the people of the town, not an owner who brings their franchise to town.

A Derby is more than a rivalry and resembles is more associated with the NCAA environment than a professional sport environment. In the NFL teams seem to have been set up to avoid Derby’s. Having the Jets-Giants, Angels-Dodgers, Mets-Yankees, Rams-Chargers, SF-Oakland in different divisions have really limited the Derby idea here. There is not a specific distance, just close. UNC-Duke would be considered a Derby. Wisconsin-Marquette, Indiana-Purdue, Cincinatti-Xavier. Point is, in English Soccer, where there are thousands of clubs in a relatively small area, there are true rivalries that truly create significant competition/fighting amongst neighbors.

Headlines 📌

  • Pencil This One In. Manchester Derby. City host United Sunday, 930am cst. - United had a lot of momentum and optimism that took 2 steps back in their home loss to Fulham last weekend. City has quietly, if that’s possible, gone 11W 2 D in their last 13. Quietly, because all the matches have been low scoring. Mid-week City scored 6 goals at Luton Town in the FA Cup, that was the first time they scored more than 3 in 17 matches. City are significant favorites at -360 with United at +900. A big number for this Derby.

    • More on the Manchester Derby.

      • City won at United in October 3-0. City were favorites on the road at -150 and United was +390.

      • With all the success lately for City, they still are behind United in the win column. In 191 matches, United has 78W 60L 53D.

      • 1962 - the last time a player was transferred from one club to the other.

      • Just 4 miles separate Old Trafford and the Etihad.

      • The Rags. City’s name for United - during WWII Old Traffird was bombed by the Luftwaffe. United was so poor at the time they had to wear old kits that started to resemble old rags.

      • Citeh. United will make fun of City fans for how many pronounce City - Citeh, a Mancunian accent.

      • Maybe you remember this Commercial - “Born Into It” (60s YT)

  • 7.2.1. Weekend. 7 Saturday, 2 Sunday, 1 Monday.

  • 12 To Go. The races are as SNUG as a @PaulPabst (X) tweet. The race is wide open for the PL Champion, European Competitions, and Relegation. Here is the remaining schedule for the top 3 teams best positioned to win the Cup.

What 2 Look 4 👀- Match Week 27

Derby’s

  • Brentford v Chelsea+220 (Sat) - West London Derby. The Bee’s are 3W 1D in their last 4 with their neighbors. This year Brentford have struggled against the “big 6 clubs” with just 1D and 6L. Chelsea got a good bounce back win in the FA Cup at home v Leeds on Wednesday.

  • Tottenham v Palace +525 (Sun) - London Derby. Palace have beaten Spurs 1 time, 1990, in their last 15 tries and have yet to beat a fellow London opponent in their last 5. Spurs are 6w 2L 2D in their last 10 and while they have scored in every match this year, only 2 matches have they gotten 4+ goals. Spurs have 5 Clean Sheets on the season, so this match feels like 2-1 or 3-1.

  • City v Man United +900 (Sun) - See Above.

Relegation Candidates At Home

  • Everton v West Ham +280 (Sat) - The Toffee’s got great news with the reduction of their point deduction from 10 to 6, moving them up the Table. Now can they take some momentum and earn 3 points at home. They have not taken 3 points since DECEMBER 16 posting 0W 4L 5D in their last 9. The Hammers were shut out three straight matches until a great outing at home to Brentford in a 4-2 win. They may be the most underappreciated team in the League - sitting tied for 7th, playing in the Europa League - yet have a frustrated fan base who doesn’t like the way they play (just ask @thomasjrennie @SiriusXMFC X).

  • Brentford v Chelsea+110 (Sat) - See Above.

  • Forest v Liverpool -190 (Sat) - Top of table Reds have not won at Forest in a PL match since 1984, they are 6L 7D over that span. Forest has been playing better, but not getting the results. Will be a tough test for both teams.

  • Luton Town v Villa -120 (Sat) - Villa has handled the teams at the bottom of the table all season. The Hatters have had Villa’s number at home over the years winning 12 of 16 matches but that was a different Villa team and current manager Unai Emery has them playing at a much higher level.

  • Burnley v Bournemouth -110 (Sun) - Something has to give. Burnley have won just 1 home match this season with 2 draws. Bournemouth have just 1 win at Burnley in their last 14 tries. Can The Clarets get out of their own way, they currently lead the PL with 5 Red Cards which is interesting as they sit 15th in total Yellow Cards (48).

  • Sheffield United v Arsenal -650 (Mon) - The Blades have struggled to win (3 total), so saying they have not won a match against a team near the top of the table really doesn’t say much. Sheffield United are last in the league in goals scored with 22. Arsenal is appropriately named, leading the league in defending the goal with 23 Goals Against.

Fight for Top Ten

  • Newcastle v Wolves - The teams have drawn 7 of their last 10 meetings and currently sit 9/10 in the table. A win could move either into 7th in the table. Injuries are starting to show up for Wolves who will be without two key players, Cunha and Hwang, but manager Gary O’Neil has options. Newcastle can’t seem to keep teams from scoring, allowing 2 or more goals in 6 of their last 7 matches.

  • Fulham v BHA - The Seagulls seem to be an all or nothing proposition lately. Score 4+ goals and win, otherwise lose or draw. Fulham looked great at Old Trafford over the weekend and didn’t play mid-week in the FA Cup like BHA did.

Local Culture Highlight Match of the Week - Manchester

Manchester is located in the West of England, just east of the coastal town Liverpool.

The Roman conquest of Britian in the 1st century saw a fort erected, named Mamucium, in 79 to protect Roman interests form the local Celtic tribe The Brigantes. The name Manchester originates from the Latin Mamucium. Central Manchester was permanently established at that time.

Fast forward to the industrial revolution and in 1835 “Manchester was without challenge the first and greatest industrial city in the world.”

Shipping Lanes

In 1894, the Manchester Shipping Canal was constructed by Manchester merchants who were against paying dues to import/export goods to and from Manchester through Liverpool which sits 20 miles between Manchester and the Sea. This time frame coincided with the early days of both United and City. As a result, to this day both Man City and Man United has a ship in their crest.

Survey of who is Red and who is Blue in Manchester.

Old Trafford - MU

Etihad Stadium - MC

Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥

FA Cup - One of the Remaining 3 Cups In Play

Sweet 16 results (Round of 16)

  • Coventry 5-0 Maidstone United

  • Bournemouth 0-1 Leicester

  • Blackburn 1-1 (3-4) Newcastle

  • Luton Town 2-6 Man City

  • Chelsea 3-2 Leeds

  • Forest 0-1 Man United

  • Wolves 1-0 BHA

  • Liverpool 3-0 Southampton

Elite 8 Matchups (Quarterfinals)

6 PL clubs and 2 Championship (Level 2) clubs are thru to the quarterfinals.

  • Man United v Liverpool (aka North-West Derby)

  • Man City v Newcastle United

  • Wolves v Coventry City (Championship) - Just 25 miles separate the clubs

  • Chelsea v Leicester City (Championship)

Off Island 🏝️

Dos a Cero

For the first time since 2010 the Mexican Women’s National Team (El Tri Femenil) beat the USWNT. The USWNT had been on a run of 16 consecutive victories in a 14-year span and held an overall 40-1-1 record. Mexico’s 2-0, Dos a Cero, result Monday night was completely deserving of the result.

Maybe the biggest headline - A crowd of just over 11,500 attended the match, and it was described as pro-Mexican. The match was part of the Womens Gold Cup competition, the third of three group stage matches, and held in Carson, California (SoCal).

The History of “Dos a Cero” - On the Men’s side, the US & Mexican National Teams have been heated rivals. Maybe the most important match between the two sides happened in the 2002 World Cup Round of 16. Mexico were the clear favorites, yet the US beat Mexico 2-0 and the headlines read “Dos a Cero”. This occurred 9 months after 9/11, moved the USMNT into the Quarterfinals to play Germany (they lost 0-1), and created more energy around soccer in the US than had ever been seen (opinion). Mexico leads the all time series 36W 23L 17D.

What’s up with the USWNT

  • Interim manager Twila Kilgore’s take on the outcome - “I think it just shows how far the game is coming and there’s no easy games anymore”.

  • What might be going on with the USWNT…..

    • Was this a fluke match - like the loss 14 years ago - a quick detour soon to be forgotten.

    • How much better is Mexico’s team? Liga MX Femenali - the women's league in Mexico was started in 2017 and is elevating their national team’s performance.

    • On that note has the world caught up to the US. This was noticeable in the recent World Cup where the US got knocked out in the round of 16 and won just 1 of 4 matches. Other countries are providing more chances for women in sport, similar to what the US has had for many years.

    • The Culture of the Team. There’s been a lot of discussion around the culture of the team over the last several years.

      • The political activism of the team doesn’t sit well with the large portion of sports fans.

      • Suing for “equal pay” has its pro’s and con’s, is a complex topic, and is something fans don’t agree on.

      • Overall likability of the team has been an issue. Former star Carli Lloyd has been on record as saying she “hated” the culture of the team.

The Media doesn’t help, including soccer pundits. Here is a headline of a national publication - “USWNT most diverse yet in race, ethnicity and sexual orientation". Sorry, but WTF. This is on par when another publication reported on the Italian Men’s Soccer team that the most striking thing about their team was their lack of diversity. Too many Italians?

Media Braintrust

Regardless of where you stand on the issue new manager Emma Hayes (from England) will have to figure it out when she starts in June, and the team will need to respond in time for the Olympics at the end of July.

Best Bets 💰

Need Some Guest Picker’s. Send CS an email if you are interested!

CleanSheet Season Gains/Losses: Starting Balance $1000. Current Standing $1,265.

Week 27 Picks

Liverpool to Win at Forest & both to score +124. $20

Bournemouth to Win at Burnley -105. $21

Tottenham to Win v Palace & O3.5 +183. $22

Newcastle to Draw v Wolves +280. $22

Everton to Draw v West Ham +250. $20

Brentford to Win v Chelsea +220. $20

Fulham to Win v BHA +160. $20

Luton Town to Win v Villa +320. $20

Man United to Draw at Man City +550. $10

Man United to Win at Man City +900. $10

Arsenal to Win at Sheffield United 3-0 +650. $10.

Arsenal to Win at Sheffield United 4-0 +1000. $10.

Longshot of the week

Parlay - Liverpool, Fulham, Spurs, Arsenal, City, Bournemouth all to WIN. +1606. $10.

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