Match Week 26 Preview

Gardening, Coefficients, & Surprise, Mfers!

In Today’s CleanSheet:

  • Headlines 📌

  • What 2 Look 4 👀 

  • Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥- The Coefficients of Europe

  • Off Island 🏝️ - CL, EL, ECL

  • Best Bets 💰

Gardening. Who knew it had so many meanings.

In the US a garden is often viewed as a “vegetable garden”, in the UK it’s a manicured “yard”. In the EPL - evidently there is Gardening Leave - “a practice employed by employers when an employee resigns or has their employment terminated. They are told to stay away but are still on the payroll.”

US Garden

UK Garden

EPL Garden

Newcastle put their Sporting Director on Gardening Leave after he said he would like to leave for a similar role at Man United. By putting him on Gardening Leave he would remain under contract until 2026 and could not work for United - unless they paid a compensation fee - which Newcastle is asking $25M.

Headlines 📌

  • Pencil This One In. Man United v Fulham +475 (Sat 9am NBC) - FFC sits in the middle of the PL and on paper this seems like a simple match for United. How-ev-ah, they have played many tight matches, beat Arsenal recently and have shown the ability to control matches. United have been on a solid run starting with their draw 0-0 at Liverpool in mid-December. Defensively they have been solid all season, now they are finding ways to score and win tight matches. This match may come down to who scores first.

  • 6.1.1. Weekend. 6 Saturday, 1 Sunday, 1 Monday.

    • Chelsea v Tottenham. This match has been postponed as Chelsea plays in the EFL Cup Final Sunday. Reschedule date is TBD.

    • Liverpool 4-1 Luton Town. The Hatters had a great 1H and went into the break up 1-0. It was all Liverpool in the second half with 4 goals, could’ve been more but Hatters Goalkeeper with several great saves.

  • Quick Kicks

    • 5.45. Thomas Kaminski (no relation to frank) has prevented 5.45 goals for Luton Town this season, more than any other goalkeeper.

    • 39 goals in 25. Wolves have scored more goals this season than in their previous 3 seasons, with 13 matches yet to play.

    • 21 for 21. Erling Haaland has now scored against every PL club he has played against.

    • 1st Pair. Serfino Dest and Malik Tillman played in the CL round of 16 for PSV Eindhoven this week. They are the first pair of USMNT teammates to start for the same team in a CL knockout stage.

    • 10+ across 5. Liverpool are the first club in Europe’s top leagues to have 5 players score 10+ goals - Diaz (10), Gakpo (11), Nunez (13), Jota (14), Salah (19).

    • 9. Darwin Nunez (Liverpool) has “hit the woodwork” NINE times this season. Second on the list 5 players tied at 3.

Gotta See This. UEFA punished Legia Warsaw Ultras (Passionate Poland Fans of Legia) for lighting fireworks and sending “provocative messages”.

The Stand That Was Banned

This Time You Won UEFA.

The Stand NOT Banned for their ECL Match Thursday.

What 2 Look 4 👀- Match Week 26

Local Culture Highlight Match of the Week - Aston Villa, Birmingham

  • Villa v Forest +500 (Sat) - Villa has lost their last 2 at home after a long unbeaten streak. The Trees are coming off a solid W home to West Ham. Expect The Lions fans at the Aston Tavern to be ready for a big W.

The Borough of Aston in the City of Birmingham is located in the West Midlands of England.

Birmingham is the second biggest city in the UK with ~1.2M people in the city and ~4.3M in the metro area. In 1791 it was declared “the first manufacturing town in the world.” In the early 1900’s Birmingham was considered a hot bed of political radicalism (You can experience what it was like in the Netflix series Peaky Blinders - GREAT SERIES) and in WWII was targeted by Germany in the Birmingham Blitz, with heavy bombing from 1940-1943 and then several decades of revitalization after the war.

Today there are 571 parks within Birmingham, more than any European city, and boasts more than 6 million trees. This is offset by some of the minimalist architecture used to replace traditional Victorian structures after the bombings.

Traditional Culture. If you think of English soccer as cool old stadiums with passionate fans, great pubs, and major rivalries - that describes Aston Villa. It’s one of the original clubs started, with great history, many cups and titles, a great stadium and a passionate fan following. Great local rivals add to the passion and energy with the “Big 4 of the West Midlands” (West Brom, Wolverhampton, Birmingham City). An argument could be made for Villa to be the “best” PL club not in the Big 6. Villa have spent 109 consecutive seasons in the top 4 leagues, second only to Everton (120) and the two have matched up against each other more than any other two clubs. For current Villa fans frustration comes from a couple angles. The titles were over 40 years ago, the main rivals keep rotating in and out of the PL, and The Lions seem to be fighting uphill against the Big 6 clubs.

The Rampant Lion

If you go to Villa Park - there are Lions everywhere and the crest has always been the Rampant Lion.

The Rampant Lion is a symbol of Scotland and is on the flag known as the Royal Standard of Scotland. Two of the founding club members, William McGregor and George Ramsay, were both from Scotland. They wanted to keep a connection to their heritage.

At the stadium…..

You Might Hear.  The Bells Are Ringing.

Aston Parish Church is near Villa Park, and on Saturday’s the bells would ring during weddings.

“The bells are ringing for the claret and blue. Claret and blue. Claret and blue. The fans are singing for the claret and blue. Claret and blue. Claret and blue. Everybody is knowing, to the Villa they’re going. Where the Villa are showing. We’re the best in the land. Best in the land.”

The Holte End

Villa Park, 43,000 Capacity

Pretty Big Home Favorites/Road Dogs

  • Arsenal v Newcastle +750 (Sat) - The Gunners have been great at limited opponents’ chances. They have allowed only 3 shots on goal in their last 3 matches and on the season have allowed the fewest goals at 22. Newcastle last scored a goal at Arsenal in 2014, eight games ago.

  • Wolves v Sheffield United +525 (Sun) - Wolves have lost their last 2 home matches. The Blades took themselves out with a red card their last time out and really have been a sieve averaging 3 goals allowed per match in their last 7. But really, they have been averaging over 2.5 goals allowed per match on the season, so 3 is really not a big step down.

  • Villa v Forest +500 (Sat) - See Above.

  • Man United v Fulham +475 (Sat) - See Above.

  • BHA v Everton+300 (Sat) - BHA has had only one 1 goal match (aside from 4 draws) since December 6, their wins and losses have been big numbers. Everton won 4 in a row in December but have not won in their last 8 with 4D in the last 5. Everton are 17 goals behind their xG this season.

  • Palace v Burnley +300 (Sat) - It is often believed that teams get a “bounce” after a managerial change, that has not been the case for Palace who are just 2D 4L after their last 6 managerial changes. Also, the home team in this matchup on either side is 2D 4L in their last 6. Palace got a good point at Everton last time out, The Clarets continue to struggle.

Home Teams That May Struggle

  • West Ham v Brentford +165 (Mon) - 3D 3L in The Hammers last 6 and a free fall out of the top 10. Can a home match to Brentford, where the Hammers are slight favorites, turn the tide.

  • Bournemouth v Man City -240 (Sat 1130am) - In their last 12 matches, City are 10W 2D but it doesn't feel that way. They have not been dominating and have needed late scores to put games away. The Cherries haven’t won in 6 but do have 3 draws. Will need some home turf cooking as their trip to City ended in a 1-6 defeat.

Not Playing On The Weekend

  • Chelsea v Tottenham - Postponed.

  • Liverpool v Luton Town - See Above.

Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥

The Coefficients of Europe

Ever wonder how teams get into the Champions League and how all the European Leagues are ranked best to worst? I didn’t think so. File this topic under things you may not know, didn't even know existed, but once you know it does exist you can't wait to learn. 🤔

The quick version is…..

The best leagues in Europe get more teams and more automatic qualifiers into the later rounds of the Champions League.

The Best Leagues are based on…..

Coefficient Rankings are determined for each country based on club results over 5 seasons.

Coefficient Rankings are calculated by earning points for wins & draws in European competitions and includes bonus points for going farther in the competitions.

  • 2pts for a W, 1 D

  • 4 Bonus points for Group stage, 5 for Round of 16, and 1 for QF, SF and Final.

  • Variations are included for Europa League and Europa Conference League

  • Total Points for the league divided by the number of teams participating.

Why is this a Hot Topic?

We are now into the knockout rounds in the CL, EL and ECL and these games matter both to this year’s tournament and to future qualification opportunities for the Country Leagues and there is a battle going on at the top.

UEFA Coefficient Rankings (Full Rankings) as of 2/20/2024

  1. Italy 14.714

  2. Germany 13.928

  3. England 13.875

  4. Spain 12.937

  5. France 12.250

    …..all the way down to

54. Estonia

  • Germany just jumped over England.

  • England has an 82% chance to finish second given remaining years schedule.

In addition, next year the CL expands to 36 teams, from 32 - this will include an additional Automatic Qualifier for the TOP 2 in Coefficient Rankings. So instead of 4 automatic qualifiers the top 2 will get 5. And then, instead of the 5th place team qualifying for the Europa Leage it will be the 6th place team. All resulting in more money for the clubs and league.

  • Here is a great article from SkySports with more detail.

  • Here is an average article at the CleanSheet on the basics of the Leagues for those interested.

Off Island 🏝️

Champions League, Europa League & Europa Conference

All first legs are in the books for the CL and the final 16 have been determined in the EL and ECL.

Second Leg’s will be March 5/6 and 12/13.

You Might Be Interested to Know - The Champions League started in 1955, here are the teams and countries leading the way with titles. 

Teams

  • Real Madrid has 14 - they won the first 5 from 1955-1960.

  • Milan has 7.

  • Bayern Munich & Liverpool have 6.

  • Juventus have the most runners up 7 (2 Titles)

Countries

  • Spain - 19 Titles

  • England - 15

  • Italy 12 (17 runners up)

English Champions (troll football)

HAHAHA Gunner Fans

Great Troll on Arsenal from @trollfootball

Champions League Leg One Results

  • City lead Copenhagen 3-1, leg 2 in Manchester.

  • Real Madrid lead RB Leipzig 1-0, leg 2 in Madrid.

  • PSG lead Real Sociedad 2-0, leg 2 in Spain.

  • Lazio lead Bayern Munich 1-0, leg 2 in Munich.

  • Inter Milan lead Atletico Madrid 1-0, leg 2 in Madrid.

  • PSV Eindhoven and Dortmund are 1-1, leg 2 in Germany.

  • Napoli and Barcelona are 1-1, leg 2 in Barcelona.

  • Porto lead Arsenal 1-0, let 2 in London.

Europa League & Europa Conference - Teams that advanced to Round of 16

Matches will be played 3/7 and 3/14. Who plays who will be determined today, Friday 2/23 at 5am. While you are reading the CleanSheet and having your cup of coffee, you can watch the live stream.

Europa League Sweet 16 - Knock Out Round, best of 2 matches.

Seeded Teams

  • Atalanta (ITA)

  • Brighton (ENG)

  • Leverkusen (GER)

  • Liverpool (ENG)

  • Rangers (SCO)

  • Slavia Praha (CZE)

  • Villarreal (ESP)

  • West Ham (ENG)

Unseeded Teams

  • AC Milan (ITA)

  • Benfica (POR)

  • Freiburg (GER)

  • Qarabağ (AZE)

  • Marseille (FRA)

  • Sparta Prague (CZE)

  • Sporting (POR)

  • Roma (ITA)

Europa Conference League Sweet 16 - Knock Out Round, best of 2 matches.

Seeded Teams

  • Aston Villa (ENG)

  • Club Brugge (BEL)

  • Fenerbahçe (TUR)

  • Fiorentina (ITA)

  • LOSC Lille (FRA)

  • Maccabi Tel-Aviv (ISR)

  • PAOK (GRE)

  • Viktoria Plzeň (CZE)

Unseeded Teams

  • Ajax (NED)

  • Dinamo Zagreb (CRO)

  • Maccabi Haifa (ISR)

  • Servette (SUI)

  • Union SG (NED)

  • Olympiakos (GRE)

  • Molde (NOR)

  • SK Sturm Graz (AUT)

Bayern Leverkusen Watch

Leverkusen have yet to lose a match in any competition this year, 31 matches, and lead the Bundesliga.


CS will track the results of BL until they lose.

Bayern Munich have won the Bundesliga 11 years in a row, no other European club have won their league as many times.

Latest results

2/17 @ Heidenhaim - W2-1

Next Up

2/23 v Mainz 05 - 130cst ESPN+

Table

1 Bayern Leverkusen 58 points

2 Bayern Munich 50 points

…..

17 Mainz 05 15 points

Best Bets 💰

Need Some Guest Picker’s. Send CS an email if you are interested!

CleanSheet Season Gains/Losses: Starting Balance $1000. Current Standing $1,197.

Week 26 Picks

Liverpool to Win v Luton Town and O4.5 +164. $20

Villa Forest O3.5. +135. $20

Burnley to Win at Palace +300. $20

Everton BHA to Draw +280. $20

Arsenal to Win v Newcastle & Newcastle will not score +111. $20

Brentford to Win v West Ham +165. $20

EFL CUP Special

Liverpool to Win v Chelsea. +115. $20

Longshot of the week

Parlay - Man United, Villa, Burnley, Arsenal, Wolves all to WIN. +1839. $10.

Reply

or to participate.