Match Week 21.2 Recap

EPL Match Week 21.2 - CleanSheet Recap

In Today’s CleanSheet:

• Headlines 📌

• Current Situation📈📉

• Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥- Elite - Meh - Bad

• Off Island 🏝️ -

• Best Bets 💰

Headlines 📌

• Best Result of Match Week 21.2.  Brentford 3-2 Forest. The Bee’s had lost 5 in a row and 7 of 8. Relegation talk had entered the discussion. Enter Ivan Toney, back from suspension to Captain Thomas Frank’s side. A home match against Forest was a key test that could dictate what the second half of the season might look like. Test passed. There will be more hurdles to get over, but for Bee’s the momentum was needed. As for the Tree’s, they seem to be playing well under Nuno and although they would’ve liked a point this effort was encouraging.

  • Danilo gets forest on the board first for Forest. (X)

  • Leave it to Ivan Toney, just back from a gambling suspension, to score this great goal on a set piece. (X)

    • Toney’s last 2 goals - Before the suspension at home to Forest on a free kick. After the suspension at home to Forest on a free kick. This look familiar…..

    • Toney will be the difference for Brentford staying up. Good interview here. “I’m Back” (X 1m)

  • Mee for the Bee’s lead at 58’, Wood for Forest at 65’ and a cracker from Maupay at 68’ for the winner. All 3 here. (X 1m)

  • Great angle on Maupay’s game winner. (X)

  • Gamesmanship. Skullduggery. Cheating.

    • Lots of talk about HOW Ivan Toney prepared to take the kick - improving his lie. (X).

• The post-match reaction

  • Forest have made an official complaint to PGMOL (the overseers of PL Match Officials).

  • The two robbies discuss. (X) @robbiemustoe

  • CS Reaction - The “wall” that players set up 10 yards away often “moves” forward and removes the foam line. It’s not illegal to move the ball slightly where it is spotted. It’s the ref’s responsibility to re-spot the ball if he thinks it’s been moved. Moving the foam get’s close to taking it too far, but many players remove the foam prior to the kick as it’s a distraction.

  • Messi moves the ball for a better angle on free kicks, no one complains.

• Message Sent. Bournemouth 0-4 Liverpool. No Mo, no problem. Bournemouth has been top form and looked it 1H, but 4 by Liverpool in 2H - 2 each by Nunez and Jota - and Liverpool has signaled City are going to have to earn the title if they want it.

  • Right out of the break. Nunez at 48’. (X)

  • Clean, Precise, Emphatic. Jota at 69’. (X)

  • The Brace (2 goals for 1 player). Jota at 79’. (X)

  • The Brace II. Nunez at 92’. (X)

• One Hundred Two. The latest ever goal scored in PL history allowed Sheffield United to get a 2-2 Draw at home to West Ham. It was a crazy final 11 minutes of extra time that saw 2 red cards and the game tier.

• Back on Track. Arsenal v Palace, 5-0. Questions why the Gunner’s couldn’t score heading into the mini-break may have been answered.

  • Goal 1. Gabriel (X).

  • Goal 2 - Gabriel (X).

  • Eleven Seconds. Keeper to back of the net. (X).

  • One Hundred Four Seconds. Goals 4 & 5 by Martineli. (X).

• Double Clean Sheets. BHA 0-0 Wolves. A draw was probably the fair result, and a really good point for Wolves. BHA has 72% possession but only 4 shots on goal. Wolves had 3 with 28%.

• Quick update on Mo Salah - Agent Ramy Abbas “The injury is more serious than first thought. He will be out for 21-28 days. His best chance at participating in the current AFCON is by undergoing intensive rehabilitation in the UK and rejoining the team as soon as he is fit.”

Current Situation 📈📉

Clean Sheets Counter

3 Clean Sheets in 21.1, 4 in 21.2.

Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥

Elite-Meh-Bad ⬆️➡️⬇️

Through 21 Match Weeks the Table is sorting itself out. So, as we are thinking about future betting opportunities and what the schedule shows us, let’s look at how teams are performing at home versus on the road against the overall Table.

Data is below - here are a couple things that stand out.

• Arsenal’s scoring on the road has downgraded their elite status.

• Significant difference: HOME > ROAD performance.

  • Villa scores more goals at home, 2.9 per match, than any other team. They also lead the league in allowing only .8 goals per match. Yet Villa only scores 1.3 on the road and allow 1.7. They lead the league in home points (28) but are 6th in points on the road (15).

  • Newcastle has 24 home points but only 5 on the road. At home they allow .9 goals per match, on the road 2.2.

  • West Ham, Fulham and Bournemouth all allow 1 full goal more on the road than at home.

• Significant difference: ROAD > HOME performance.

  • Everton have 16 points on the road, 5 more than at home, in 1 less game.

  • Burnley have twice as many points (8) than at home (4), in 1 less game. The Clarets defense has been better on the road.

• Man United. Points wise, United’s performance has been - Average. But their data is not average. It’s Elite on Defense and Bad on Offense.

• 2 goals per match.

  • 7 teams allow more than 2 goals per match on the road.

  • 7 teams score more than 2 goals per match at home.

  • Newcastle is the only team on both lists. (Fulham is close).

• 1 point per match.

  • 5 teams are averaging 1 point or less per home match.

  • 8 teams are averaging 1 point or less per away match.

  • 3 teams are on both lists, Luton Town, Burnley and Sheffield United.

• Per CleanSheet Ratings, below are Home and Away Comparisons.

Per FootyStats.org…..

• Goals/Match to date: 3.11.

• Home Goals: 1.75.

• Away Goals: 1.36.

• 40% of goals are scored in 1H.

• Roughly - here is the breakdown of number of goals scored per match.

  • 0-1 Goals: 17%

  • 2 Goals: 21%

  • 3 Goals: 24%

  • 4 Goals: 19%

  • 5+ Goals: 20%

Off Island 🏝️

Hand On The Scale

There’re always fans accusing Leagues of influencing the outcome of matches. Does the NFL want SF Baltimore in the Super Bowl? Doesn’t mean people are saying the League is rigging the games, just means they might “put their hand on the scale” here or there to influence a game. It’s not just a topic here in the US, let’s take a look at what happened in La Liga (Spain) this weekend.

• Real Madrid is one of the top 5 clubs in the world. They were playing at home against Almeria. Almeria is currently in last place in La Liga, 0W 6D 15L.

• Almeria led at RM 2-1 and scored at 62’ to go up 3-1. Then VAR got involved and disallowed the goal. At 67’ Real Madrid had a goal not allowed for hand ball, but VAR got involved and confirmed a goal. What do you think, clear and obvious? Now it’s 2-2.

• 13 min of extra are then added, THIRTEEN - and RM score late. 3-2

Best Bets 💰

During Match Week 9, CS called on @bigcatbarstool for good vibes, and since MW9 CS is UP $602. One message from Big Cat - silence the haters and focus.

Overall GuestPicker Standings ($)