Match Week 17 Preview

Welcome Nike, Catamount & "Splitting the G"

Author

nick lochner
December 20, 2024

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In Today’s CleanSheet:

  • Headlines 📌

  • Current Situation📈📉

  • Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥- Splitting the G

  • Off Island 🏝️ - La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga

  • Best Bets 💰

Headlines 📌

  • CS Match of the Week. Brentford +120 v Forest +210 SAT 9a - Two teams exceeding expectations. Bee’s have yet to lose at home, 7W 1D. The Tree’s have been solid on the road and sit 4 in the table.

    • No stadium has seen more goals this season than Gtech, and it’s not even close. In 8 games both sides have combined for 40 goals at Gtech, 5 per match.

    • Next closest, Molineaux - home of Wolves - with 32 goals.

    • Palace’s Selhurst Park has seen 16 goals this season, 2 per match.

    • 480 goals have been scored in the PL this season over 159 matches, 3.02 goals per match.

  • 5.5 Weekend. 5 Saturday, 5 Sunday.

  • Wolverhampton. Wolves hired their new manager, ex Porto manager Vitor Pereira (Portugal). Pereira was currently managing in Saudi Arabia. He will be managing this weekend for Wolves.

  • Carabao Cup. The tournament that matches the top 4 leagues in England completed its quarterfinal matches this week, all PL teams left, and we have our final four.

    • Arsenal 3-2 Palace. Gunners down 1 early, then up 3-1 late.

    • Newcastle 3-1 Brentford. All Newcastle.

    • Southampton 1-2 Liverpool. Up 2-0 at HT, Saints scored mid 2H to make it close.

    • Tottenham 4-3 Man United. Spurs up 3-0, then 3-2, then 4-2. Remember, Ange says he always wins cups in his second year, and it isn’t going to be the PL.

    • CS Take - sure seems like 2034 was decided before the process was even put in place.

  • UEFA Conference League. No Champions or Europa League this mid-week but the CL had their 5 of 8 match week which means Chelsea was in action against Shamrock (Dublin, Ireland) at Stamford Bridge. It was all Chelsea 5-1.

University of Vermont with the Men’s NCAA Soccer Title

  • Vermont 2-1 Marshall in Over Time.

    • Here’s the OT game winner - SOUND ON. In NCAA Soccer, OT is first to score. “Don’t call them Cinderella, you can call them National Champs!”

    • The University of Vermont had never reached an NCAA Championship in any sport - ever.

    • Vermont lost two matches all season but were not even seeded in the tournament.

    • Interesting stat - just 21%, 7 of 33, players who played in the final have USA hometowns listed in their bio’s. This has generated A LOT of conversation from American soccer pundits.

    • GREAT POST - Congrats Ted Lasso!

What 2 Look 4 👀- Match Week 17

Home Sides Getting PLUS Odds ➕➕➕➕➕➕➕➕

  • Palace +450 v Arsenal -170 SAT 1130a - London Derby (South v North) REMATCH. Both sides just played at Arsenal in the Carabao Cup mid-week, a Gunners 3-2 win. In the EPL, Palace have just 1 loss in their last 8 with 3W and 4D. The Gunners have struggled to score at times, but the defense continues to be solid allowing just 1 goal in their last 4 in the PL.

  • Everton +425 v Chelsea -165 SUN 8a - Chelsea have won their last 5 matches scoring 16 goals in that span but they head to Goodison Park where they face the hottest Goalkeeper in the League, Jordan Pickford. 3 of Everton’s last 5 matches have ended 0-0. Will be interesting to see how Chelsea tires to breakthrough Everton’s defense.

  • Ipswich Town +360 v Newcastle -145 SAT 9a - The Tractor Boys won last time out but were outplayed. Newcastle has found something on the scoring front scoring more than a goal in their last 3 matches. How the Magpies handle the strain of the midweek Carabao Cup match will be a factor.

  • Tottenham +300 v Liverpool -135 SUN 1030p - Good Spurs or Bad Spurs. Liverpool keep finding ways to win but will be a tough assignment if Spurs show up in North London. Both sides can score, Liverpool can defend.

  • Aston Villa +230 v Man City +110 SAT 630a - Interesting that City, with just 1 win in their last 12, are favored to win. Villa has been underperforming their expectations this year but seem to get up for big games at Villa Park.

  • West Ham +185 v BHA +130 SAT 9a - The Hammers are on a mini run with a W and D in their last couple matches while the Seagulls are coming off their worst performance of the year in a home defeat to Palace. BHA have not won in four matches.

  • Leicester City +150 v Wolves +165 SAT 9a - Big matchup in regard to relegation. Wolves have been struggling defensively and fired Gary O’Neil. The Foxes have just one clean sheet on the year, so expect goals in this one.

  • Brentford +120 v Forest +210 SAT 9a - See Above.

TWO Home Favorites🏠🏠

  • Man United -115 v Bournemouth +280 SUN 8a - Will United take the Derby win against City and use it to stack wins? It did feel like it could be a moment where United say their season took off. The Cherries continue to exceed expectations and may be looking for the late goals they seem to score in every match to get them points.

  • Fulham -240 v Southampton +600 SUN 8a - The Saints march into Craven Cottage without their manager Russell Martin, sacked after last weeks thrashing to Spurs. The Cottagers have enjoyed home cooking this season and are looking to move into a European spot.

Current Situation 📈📉

Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥

Better Stock Up…..

The Demand for Guinness is UP UP UP in the UK and it’s possible that trend will expand globally. It’s not that production is a problem, it’s that demand has skyrocketed.

Between July and October overall beer sales dropped slightly while Guinness grew more than 20% and pubs are running out. Diageo, the owner of the Stout, started putting order limits on their commercial customers. Just last week a The Devonshire Pub in Central London said they poured 25,000 pints in a week. Unheard of numbers.

FACTS

So - What’s Changed…..

CS has long been a big fan of Guinness - smooth, low ABV and less carbonation. But why the sudden huge uptick in demand? Looks like social media is a big part of it. “Guinn-fluencers” have become a thing.

  • “Splitting the G” has also become a thing - when the line between the beer and the foam lands in the middle of the G in the branded glass.

In addition earlier this year…

  • Jason Momoa (Aquaman, Dune, Game of Thrones among many others) stared in a new commercial push in March.

  • Kim Kardashian was seen drinking a Guinness.

  • Women customers are reportedly up 25%.

  • Guinness 0.0, the NA version has become very popular.

Split the G

NOT Coincidentally - Guinness became the Premier League’s “Official Beer and non-alcoholic beer sponsor” this year, the first of a four-year deal.

Off Island 🏝️

European Standings

Some GREAT racing in the “bigger” leagues across Europe.

La Liga - SPAIN

TIGHT - and some great matches coming up….

4 Team Race

  • Barcelona sit top of the table but just lost, AT HOME, to 17 in the table Leganes.

  • Real Madrid could’ve gone top but drew at mid-low table Rayo Vallecano.

  • Atletico and Real Madrid have a game in had.

  • Coming up this weekend, Atletico Madrid travel to Barcelona.

Serie A - ITALY

7/8 Team Race

  • Suprise Fiorentina are competing for Europe.

  • AC Milan has overcome a slow start.

  • Juventus have NOT LOST but have only 6 wins and 10 draws.

  • *Teams have games yet to play.

Bundesliga - Germany

11 Team Race

  • Bayern Munich are solidly in front.

  • The next 10 teams are in play for significant European spots.

  • Could this be Harry Kane’s FIRST Major Cup?

Check out @AlwaysBayChe for more on Bayern and the Bundesliga on X, YouTube and Apple Podcasts.

Best Bets 💰

“Every Mountain Top is within reach if you just keep climbing.”

Match Week 17 - Progress

Taking the “+” Odds

Newcastle to Win to Nil at Ipswich Town +170. $20

Tractor Boys get beat based on their play.

Aston Villa to Win v Man City +230. $20

Crazy to think City can just turn it around at Villa Park, give me the Villains.

Palace to Win v Arsenal +450. $20

Gunners took down Palace mid-week at home without playing their top squad for most of the match. This is a trap for the Gunners heading to Selhurst Park.

Leicester City to Win v Wolves +150. $20

Not enough time for Wolves to get a new manager bounce.

Brentford to Win v Forest +130. $20

Brentford v Forest +O3.5 +168. $20

Keep betting the Bee’s until they stop winning at home and Gtech hosting 5 goals a match.

Longshots of the week - couple big swings couple little swings

Spurs to lead at HT Liverpool to Win +1725. $10

Fulham, LCFC, Brentford to Win +695. $10

Villa, Brentford to Win +645. $10

LCFC, Tottenham +890. $10

Salah, Vardy to score first +2828. $5

Salah, Vardy to score +397. 10

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