Match Week 16 Preview

One of those “Stans” - Geography Lesson

We’re not talking Stan Musial (MLB), Stan Lee (Marvel), Stanley Hudson (The Office) or Stan Kroenke (Arsenal to owner) - but one of those “Stan” countries people not living in Western Asia have a hard time finding on a map.

We’re not talking Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Afghanistan, or even Pakistan - but the 9th largest country by area in the world - Kazakhstan.

Why? Chelsea played in the country this week, close to 3000 miles from London against Astana in the UEFA Conference League. Ironically, “Cold” Palmer did not make the trip. The temperature during the match was 0⁰ F.

Check out Hot Topic🔥🔥🔥 Below for more on your future vacation plans to the Caspian Sea!

In Today’s CleanSheet:

• Headlines 📌

• Current Situation📈📉

• Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥- Welcome to Kazakhstan!

• Off Island 🏝️ - Europe League Results

• Best Bets 💰

Headlines 📌

• CS Match of the Week. Wolves -115 v Ipswich Town +280 SAT 9a - These relegation clubs need points. Wolves Gary O’Neil wants to keep his job. The Tractor Boys show promise, but little results. A loss for Wolves and I can’t see O’Neil staying on. Should be an exciting match as neither side wants a draw.

• 5.4.1 Weekend. 5 Saturday, 4 Sunday, 1 Monday.

• Saudi Arabia. Follow the 💵💵💵💵💵💵. In 2022 is was Qatar, and the World Cup had to adjust their schedule to avoid the heat in the summer. 2026 is split between the US, Canada and Mexico. 2030 Is shared by 6 countries with the first three matches in South America and Africa, and the majority of the tournament in Europe. And now it’s been announced the 2034 World Cup is heading back to the Middle East and you can bet East Asia and Europe are not happy.

  • By rule - a confederation (Europe, S America, Africa, etc.) cannot host another world cup within 8 years of hosting. Since N America is hosting 2026, they cannot host 2034. What’s interesting is that since S America AND Europe AND Africa are hosting 2030, they cannot host 2034 - yet S America and Africa are ONLY hosting ONE match in a couple countries to kick off the tournament in its new format. So who can host 2034? Only Asia or Oceania. And, given the process run by FIFA, ti becomes very limited on who has time to bid. So the countries with unlimited funds are able to bid more easily. Enter Saudi Arabia.

  • CS Take - sure seems like 2034 was decided before the process was even put in place.

What 2 Look 4 👀- Match Week 16

Big Derby’s 🏇🏇🏇

• Man City -180 v Man United +425 SUN 1030a - Manchester Derby - When was the last time both Manchester sides were both struggling this much? Ever? 1W, 2D 6L for City in 9 matches. 7W 7D 6L for United in their last 20.

• Chelsea -180 v Brentford +700 SUN 1p - West London Derby - The Bee’s have 7 wins at home out of 8, 0W 1D, 7L on the road. While Brentford and Chelsea are neighbors, the Bee’s will still be in Stamford Bridge. Brentford have won the last 3 at the Bridge.

  • Did you know - of Chelsea’s West London rivals - Fulham have NEVER WON at Stamford Bridge and Brentford have NOT LOST at Stamford Bridge in the EPL. This season, the Bee’s have not won on the road.

• BHA -110 v Palace +280 SUN 8a - A23 Derby - Palace head South on the A23 to Brighton for their Derby against the Seagulls. Was a rough road trip for BHA getting just 1 point at Fulham and LCFC last week. Palace took 4 points in that timeframe, should’ve been 6.

BIG Road Dogs 🐶🐶🐶🐶

• Arsenal -426 v Everton +1200 SAT 9a - The Gunners seemed to have turned it into another gear but dropped points at FFC make every home match a must win. Everton haven’t played in a couple weeks, will the extra practice help?

• Newcastle -360 v Leicester City +900 SAT 9a - Ruud has yet to lose for LCFC but a trip to St James’ Park against a Newcastle side who seems to have figured out their scoring issues will be a tough test.

• Liverpool -319 v Fulham +800 SAT 9a - The Red’s keep winning, Salah keeps scoring. Good point home to Arsenal the last time out, FFC will want another point from the leaders.

• Bournemouth -135 v West Ham +320 MON 2p - The Hammers came off an ugly win last time out and head to the South coast against a side that continues to score late and take points.

• Wolves -115 v Ipswich Town +280 SAT 9a - See Above.

Sneaky Good 👟👟

• Southampton +300 v Tottenham -135 SUN 1p - Good Spurs or Bad Spurs. Normally this would be a runaway, but the Saints stay in games and Spurs keep teams in games.

• Forest +160 v Aston Villa +160 SAT 1130a - The Manchester Derby will get the attention, but this midlands matchup between two sides sitting in Europe spots will be a great watch.

Current Situation 📈📉

Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥

Welcome to Kazakhstan!

Ok - never been there - but was intrigued how an Asian country with a soccer league became one of the 54 countries who play in the European Soccer Leagues, and the story was way more interesting than I thought it would be. Enjoy the History LESSON!

Lesson Objective.

• Provide you, the reader, an understanding of why Chelsea would be playing a soccer match in winter in Central Asia.

Geography Lesson.

First of all, Kazakhstan is big, the 9^th largest country by area in the world. A small portion in the West of the country (West of the Ural River) is officially in Europe while the Eastern part of the country is in Central Asia. Almaty was the Capital City up until 1997 and is considered the ROME of the region, all roads lead to Almaty. The new capital city is Astana for reasons described below. Oil, Gas and Minerals make Kazakhstan the dominating economic state in the region accounting for 60% of the area’s GDP.

Geopolitics Lesson.

Geopolitics have long played a role in Kazakhstan, as you would imagine, having Russia and China as direct neighbors. China took control of the region in the 500’s AD to control the Silk Road. The Russian Empire came in and took over the region in the 1500s AD. Fast forward to the early 1900’s AD and Joseph Stalin used the region as a “nuclear waste dump of Russia”. Stalin also ordered the forcible transfer of the population and the Kazakh e citizens endured man-made famine.

In 1991, Kazakhstan gained their independence, and to this date there is a lack of trust of both the Russians and Chinese. Russia for obvious regions stated above. China, in part, because of the treatment of Kazakh and Uyghur minorities. You may recognize those words if you have at all followed the NBA, Enos Kanter Freedom, and his calling out the NBA for their tight association with China. There is documented reporting of China enslaving Uyghur’s, and putting them in labor camps in Western China, which borders Kazakhstan.

The first president of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev, made many decisions to make Kazakhstan more independent. One of those decisions was to move the capital city from Almaty to Astana. The moves was to bring the capital to a more central location in the country, away from the China border.

Another decision President Nazarbayev made - leverage soccer as a political tool. There are vast oil reserves near the Caspian Sea that can easily supply Europe, and the government was looking for ways to better align with Europe and be positively perceived.

Regional Soccer Lesson.

So, in 2002 Kazakhstan was brought into UEFA, with the first team, Astana Sporting Team, playing in 2005. FC Astana was then founded in 2009 under the name Lokomotiv Astana under ownership directly associated with the Caspian Oil Wells (sounds a lot like the Middle East States buying into the EPL).

The Kazakhstan government is considered authoritarian, is still very much associated with Russia, and that continues to impact their soccer involvement around the world. For example, Russia was disqualified from the 2026 World Cup for political purposes. There are several European countries that think Kazakhstan should be sanctioned and/or removed from UEFA and for political purposes. The current environment moved the government to support the broadcasting of the 2023 Asian Cup for the first time in country. This may be a sign that they are changing their allegiance to UEFA. Regardless of where the Kazakhstan soccer federation heads there are some difficult decisions ahead - stay aligned to Europe where they may not feel welcomed or move back to Asia, from where they left, and admit they made a mistake leaving.

Yes, people do vacation in Kazakhstan

Off Island 🏝️

Champions League Results

The race for TOP 8 and Next 16 is on with 2 matches to play…..here are MW6 results.

EPL Team Results

• Girona 0-1 Liverpool. Liverpool have 18 points out of 18 available and have all but locked up a next round bye. (Remaining Matches for the Reds: Host Lile, at PSV).

• Juventus 2-0 Man City. The struggles continue for City. Gonna need more points if they expect to stay in the top 24 and advance. (Remaining Matches for Citizens: at PSG, Host Brugge).

• Red Bull Leipzig 2-3 Aston Villa. A BIG 3 points for Villa in Germany on a late deflected goal by Ross Barkley at 85’. Disappointing CL for Leipzig as they have been eliminated from the next round with two to play. (Remaining Matches for the Villans: at Monaco, Host Celtic).

• Arsenal 3-0 Monaco. There are 10 teams with 12 or 13 points, sitting 3rd - 12th. More points will be needed to finish top 8. (Remaining Matches for the Gunners: Host Dinamo Zagreb, at Girona).

Other Interesting Results

• Brest (France) DID IT AGAIN. The last seeded team in the CL won again, this time hosting PSV, 1-0. Brest sit on 13 points and are in the hunt for a next round bye.

• Big wins for Leverkusen, Real Madrid, Bayern and PSG.

Europa League

• United took care of Viktoria Plzen (Czech) in the Czech Republic 2-1. Come from behind win and a good three points.

• Spurs drew with Rangers (Scotland) 1-1 in Glasgow. Tough place to play, good team, but Spurs should expect more.

UEFA Conference League

In the EUFA Conference League, Chelsea beat Astana (Kazakhstan) 3-1 in frigid temperatures - 0⁰ F. Chelsea have pulled up ELEVEN players from their academy level for the 7,000 mile round trip.

Best Bets 💰

No Picture until we get another big up week.

Match Week 16 - Let’s keep it rolling

Big Bet of the Week

Arsenal to Win v Everton -426. $296

IF Everton took advantage of their mini-break, are well rested and play their best match, they could win. But I don’t expect that.

BIG DOGS to Draw or Win by .5

Fulham to Win or Draw by .5 at Liverpool +234. $20

Ipswich Town to Win or Draw by .5 at Wolves -114. $23

Leicester City to Win or Draw by .5 at Newcastle +240. $20

Man United to Win or Draw by .5 at Man City +139. $20

Brentford to Win or Draw by .5 at Chelsea +214. $20

Looking at some trends to place these

Forest Villa will be a Draw at HT +111. $20

Forest are solid defensively at home and Villa are slow starters. Could see this 0-0 or 1-1 at half.

Palace BHA 12+ Corners +135. $20

Both sides like to push up field and play in the attacking third and Palace seem to have a lot of set pieces this season. Expect a lot of corners in this one.

Man United Man City O1.5 goals in 1H +113. $20

There is going to be a lot of emotion in this one, I expect fireworks from the start.