Match Week 11 Preview

EPL Match Week 11 Preview

In Today’s CleanSheet:

• Headlines 📌

• Current Situation📈📉

• Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥- Turnover

• Off Island 🏝️ - European Leagues

• Best Bets 💰

Headlines 📌

• CS Match(es) of the Week. Chelsea +180 v Arsenal +140 SUN 1030a - London Derby. Both sides sitting on 18 points and if winning the title is a goal (which it should be) winning 3 points and giving your opponent 0 is a what each side is looking for. The Gunners are struggling and to add to the injury woes Declan Rice did not travel with the team to Milan for their mid-week CL match against Inter. The Blues have their own questions as Cole Palmer is not available for Chelsea’s ECL match against FC Noah and missed practice with what is described as a knee injury. If the EPL had injury reports both key players would be listed as Questionable for the clash.

• 6.4 Weekend. 6 Saturday, 4 Sunday.

• Arne Slott. It’s time to highlight what Slott is doing at Liverpool. Yes, he inherited a “full cupboard” from Klopp, but he is mixing all the right ingredients and getting the most out of this veteran club. Maybe the best thing he did is what he didn’t do, try to change too much. He realized what he had and found new ways to maximize skills. Granted, being injury free has helped, but he is definitely pushing all the right buttons. He may need to move up the CS manager ranking list in the future.

  • Here’s a good description from the TNTSports pundits on Slott so far. “He has "stepped into Klopp's shoes like they are velvet slippers".

• Check out this goal in an NCAA Men’s game - Notre Dame at Stanford - WOW! AND remember, in NCAA Soccer the game ends when the clock hits ZERO - LOOK AT THE CLOCK!

What 2 Look 4 👀- Match Week 11

Top of the Table Matchups 🔝🔝🔝

• Liverpool -210 v Aston Villa +500 SAT 2p - The Reds have been solid, home and aways all season. Goals Scored, 19: 9H 10A. Goals Allowed, 6: 3H 3A. Villa have also been consistent, scoring 17 goals: 7H 10A, but for the Villains it’s the 15 goals allowed that have hurt, 6H 9A. Villa plays well on the road, but can they limit Liverpool’s chances at Anfield.

• BHA +320 v Man City -135 SAT 1130a - City is reeling, for City. A 1-2 loss at Bournemouth last weekend and a thumping in Lisbon mid-week is not what City is used to. In fact, that 1-4 loss was City’s biggest since a 2-5 home defeat to Leicester City in 2020. BHA continue to have solid play but this is the time of the season last year that the Seagulls started to struggle. Can Hurzeler lead this team to high quality play for all 38. This will be an interesting test.

• Forest +165 v Newcastle +155 SUN 8a - The betting markets still are not giving the Tree’s the respect they seem to be earning, and while Newcastle have been solid defensively so far, they seem to perform much better at St James’ Park than the road where they’ve won 1 of 5 with 2 draws. Forest have allowed just 7 goals this season, 3 at home. Newcastle have scored just 10 goals this season, 5 home and away.

London Derby 🏇🏇

• Palace +160 v Fulham +170 SAT 9a - London Derby - South hosts West. Palace have started to look more like they were expected to look with a win and draw in the PL and a win in the EFL Cup. The Cottagers snatched victory from defeat with 2 late goals last week against Brentford, but it was a deserved 3 points. Fulham have been really solid this season and have seemed to overcome the back-to-back defeats to City and Villa.

• Chelsea +180 v Arsenal +140 SUN 1030a - London Derby - West hosts North. See above.

Need Points 👆👆👆

• Brentford +135 v Bournemouth +180 SAT 9a - The Bee’s have lost more points from a winning position, 14 points, then any other team this season. Bournemouth are coming off their biggest win of the season, 2-1 over City. The Cherries have been GREAT in the final 20 minutes of matches.

• Wolves -105 v Southampton +260 SAT 9a - Last chance for Gary O’Neil to get on the board? Need to stack up wins when playing teams in the bottom of the table at home and Wolves couldn’t do with last weekend against Palace. The Saints are coming off their first win of the season, can they hit the road for number 2?

• West Ham +105 v Everton +250 SAT 9a - Both teams have had disappointing results this season. It feel’s Everton had lower expectations than West Ham and have just 2 wins. The Hammers have just 3 wins and the pressure is really on Lopetegui. A home loss to Dyche’s side could cause West Ham to make a change. Looks like as long as Everton keep getting points along the way Dyche will be here for the season.

Big Favorites 🍨🍨

• Man United -260 v Leicester City +650 SUN 8a - United are playing with a new energy since ten Hag was sacked and with Enzo starting Monday it’s possible there will be a lot of energy around Old Trafford. The Foxes have scored in every match this season, but their issue is goals against allowing 11 goals on the road, only Ipswich and Wolves have allowed more on the road, 13 goals.

• Tottenham -400 v Ipswich Town +900 SAT 8a - Spurs remind CS of the Good v Evil on the shoulder memes. If the Tractor Boys show up and play just a good match it seems the result will depend on which Spurs side shows up. Ipswich looking for their first win. Just 2 weeks ago Palace got their first win of the season against Spurs.

Current Situation 📈📉

Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥

TURNOVER

The first manager movement happened in the EPL this season and you can count on several more. Been movement in the NFL too.

Managers & Club Leadership Matter. Seems like a simple statement, and yes you need the players to perform, but finding enough of the right players to fit a system, budget, and style is an Art and a Science.

The hiring of Amorim to Man United, and the results so far from Arne Slott at Liverpool, highlight the value placed on Managers. And while a much deeper analysis would be needed for every PL club here’s an interesting “stat” CS came across.

For Comparison’s Sake, English Soccer Sacks their managers at a much higher rate than the NFL.

• Of the teams listed above, the average number of managers since 1992 is 11.9.

• Of the teams listed below, the NFL average in that time period, 8.3 coaches per team.

In the NFL since 1992

• Pittsburgh Steelers have had just 2 coaches, Bill Cowher and Mike Tomlin.

• The Cleveland Browns have had the most, 13 head coaches.

Off Island 🏝️

Champions League Results

Halfway Point - 4 of 8 matches in the books and some pretty big surprises.

EPL Team Results

Recently we highlighted this amazing goal from Haaland.

This week - not so much. Erling Haaland has missed 8 big chances in his last 3 matches, the most of any player in Europe.

• Liverpool 4-0 Bayern Leverkusen. A Reds win at home was not a surprise, how they did it with 4 2H goals was.

• Sporting 4-1 Man City. Does this count as a Win for Man United?

• Inter Milan 1-0 Arsenal. Gunners stuck in reverse. Played ok, but a clear hand ball penalty was all Inter needed for all three points.

• Brugge 1-0 Villa. This CRAZY Mings mistake led to a Penalty for Brugge.

Other Interesting Results

• Brest (France). What is going on here. The LAST club ranked in the CL just won their 3rd match in the CL, this time over Sparta Praha 1-2.

• On the other end of the spectrum is PSG. The 4th ranked team in the CL lost again, this time home to Atletico Madrid 1-2. PSG now have 1W 1D 2L in the CL. Here’s how they lost.

• Pulisic, Again. Real Madrid 1-3 AC Milan. A good 4 min listen of Pulisic post-match. He is having a GREAT year in Milan.

• Barcelona go on road to Red Star Belgrade and win 5-2. They are playing at a very high level.

Current Standings after 4 Matches.

Europa League

• United took care of PAOK (Greece) at Old Trafford 2-0.

• Spurs traveled to Galatasaray (Turkey) and dropped all 3 points, 2-3.

Europa Conference League

In the EUFA Conference League, Chelsea beat Noah (Armenia) 8-0 at Stamford Bridge in West London. Chelsea sit top of the table and look really good so far.

Best Bets 💰

No picture this week until CS has a big up week.

Match Week 11 - Winners Only Please

Man United Leicester City O2.5 goals +105. $20

Seems like United are playing more open. City play open and struggle defensively. Could see United win 4-1, 3-1 or even there being a 2-2 draw. If LCFC win, they will need 3 goals. So, taking the over.

BHA to Win v Man City +320. $20

Hard to bet against Pep and City and in some ways you could argue getting City at -135 is a bargain, however, Haaland is struggling, no Rodri, no KDB and a tough road trip to the south coast. I like getting the “+”.

Forest to win v Newcastle +169. $20

The Tree’s have been excellent so far really getting it done on defense and Newcastle struggle on the road. Plus 169, yes please.

Bournemouth to Win at Brentford +168. $20

Brentford to lead at HT Bournemouth to Win +2600. $10

Given the Bee’s continue to lose points from the lead and the Cherries score late betting on a late winner by Brentford.

Chelsea to Win v Arsenal +177. $20

Teams on different trajectories, one with injury issues. Give me the home side and the plus.

Wolves to win v Southampton -105. $21

Wolves get their first win, or it could be O’Neil’s last match.