KY Derby BOUNUS CS

WOW - the Kentucky Derby snuck up and was not included in yesterday’s CS, so here is a QUICK BONUS CS for those still looking to get more information to make your pick…..

First - What do you see in this picture?

Here’s what the CS sees…..

• Post position 1 is out of picture, because no horse has ever won from post position 1.

• Woodford Reserve “Double Oaked” (@woodfordReserve X) is excellent - they are welcome to sponsor the CS - actually that offer goes out to several Bourbon Distilleries including Bulleit, Buffalo Trace and Bardstown.

• How much does John Deere pay the Derby to be the official Tractor?

• What happened to Post Positions 9 & 10? Is that Post Position 15 or 16? That’s a lot of scratches.

• They have about 90s to get those gates out of the way before the horses hit the home stretch.

Some interesting additional facts on the Run for the Roses…

• The 1 ¼ mile long race is restricted to 3-year-olds only.

• All thoroughbred racehorses have the same birthday - January 1. No matter the day a horse is born during the year, racehorse age is marked from New Year’s Day to help keep track of bloodlines.

• The Derby was started by Lewis Clark Jr - grandson of William Clark - of the famous explorers Lewis and Clark who saw the Epsom Derby in England.

• 120,000 Mint Julep’s will be served this weekend.

• Secretariat, 1973, holds the record at 1:59.4s.

Secretariat

CRAZY STAT for the 2025 Running - EVERY HORSE is a descendant of Secretariat

In addition…..

Triple Crown Winners American Pharoah and Justify both have descendants in this race - and Into Mischief has a chance to get a record third descendent with the title.

Time to Decide

CS Pick - it’s a process of elimination.

• Starting gates were introduced in 1930, in addition to post position 1, 17 has never seen a winner.

• Post Position 5 has had the most winners, 10.6% of the time. PP 10, 8, 15 have won between 9.5-10.4% of the time each.

• Betting favorites going into the race have won about 1/3 of the time. This race the favorite is coming out of the 8 position, Journalism at 3-1.

• Horses with 30-1 odds or more have won just 6 races all time, but 4 of those have been since 2005 including and 80-1 win in 2022.

• The last 3 winners odds were 18-1, 15-1 and 80-1.

• Post positions 6, 11, 12 and 14 have won < 3% of the time.

• Post Positions 17-22 average a 10th place finish or worse in all races and just 1 time have those starting positions had a winner, in 2012.

• Horses with their names beginning with the letter S have won the Derby 19 times, more than any other letter.

• International Horses have won just 4 times - and none since 1971. (1917, 1959, 1964, 1971)

• Two scratches - Positions 4 & 10.

• Pedigree matters in horse racing

  • Into Mischief, with descendants having won 2 races in the past has 2 horses running

    • 1 Citizen Bull

    • 18 Sovereignty

  • Tripple Crown winner Justify has descendant running

    • 5 American Promise

  • Tripple Crown winner American Pharoh has 2 descendants running

    • 7 Luxor Cafe

    • 13 Publisher

By process of elimination - Not taking a horse in positions

• 1 or 17 - never won from that starting position

• 4 & 10 - scratches

• 6, 11, 12, 14, have won less than 3% of the time - they are out

• 6 & 7 - Eliminated, not taking an International Horse as they haven’t won in 55 years.

• 17, 18, 19, 20, 21 - Just 1 horse has won from these positions.

• 8 - not taking a horse named Journalism, and continuing the trend of the favorite not winning.

Weather will be a factor - and they are calling for rain.

• Horses that like to come from behind are going to be getting mud in their face, yet the pure fast starting speed horses may not have enough in the tank in the muck to finish. The winning horse will either need to be out ahead early and have a clean nose at the end OR be a true closing horse who goes out and sits way behind the pack, stays clean and then comes from behind.

• Which horses are supposed to break cleanly, front run and set the tempo. 1, 5, 12, 20.

• Which horses will be sitting at the back looking to close - 3, 11, 13, 14, 17, 18.

The Pick Is In…..

• Given the weather, CS will pick from 10 horses who will either set the tempo or look to close.

• Of those 10 CS has already eliminated 1, 11, 12, 17, 18, 20.

• This leaves 3, 5, 13 and 14.

• Here are their odds

  • 3 - Final Gambit 30-1

  • 5 - American Promise 30-1

  • 13 - Publisher 30-1

  • 14 - Tiztastic 20-1

• Two of these have the pedigree - 5 and 13 and both will be starting in GREAT positions.

THE PICK - 5 American Promise.

Long Shost bet - 5, 13 Exacta Box - Both horses to Win and Place in any order.