FINAL Match Week Preview 38

“City’s March on Quad”

So, let’s look at City (going for PL Title 6 in 7 years) as our hero - and their transformational moment Tuesday at Spurs. Realizing it’s never just one play that decides a season but that a hero does typically have one big moment that determines their outcome.

Act 1 - A Call to Adventure

What does our Hero want? To do something no teams has ever done, to win a record FOURTH PL title in a row. To EPL team has ever done that. That would then give City the title in 6 of the last 8. The 38 Match adventure kicked off last August and ends Sunday.

Act 2.1 - Initiation & Tests

City had its ups and downs early, struggled with injuries, and as a result sat 3rd in the PL Table with a little over a month to go. In addition, they had a very disappointing loss in the Champions League to Real Madrid and had lost earlier in the EFL Cup that left them without a trophy on the season. The struggle was real and yet City kept working and getting better. Heading into the penultimate match of the season they had rattled off 22 straight matches unbeaten and put themselves into a position to take their destiny into their own hands with a win. City sat 1 point behind Arsenal in the Table heading into their mid-week match, a loss or draw for City and Spurs biggest rival, Arsenal, would control their destiny in the title race with one match to play.

The enemy Spurs also had skin in the game, a point and they would secure the Europa League for next season. City had not bested Spurs, at Spurs, the last 4 seasons.

Act 3.1 - Transformation - Mixed Emotions - “Who’s Side Are You On”

Tensions were high at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium - City viewed the match just like a FINAL - all in to win. Spurs also needed at lease a point to guarantee Europa League next season BUT much of the pre-match conversation for Spurs was around the question “should they tank the match so their hated rival, Arsenal, would not win the PL Title”. It also was very noticeable in the “wishy-washy” (X 90s) crowd reactions during the match.

It was heated enough during the match that Spurs manager Ange Postecoglou was VERY frustrated (30s X) on the sideline with a fan.

The Great Ray Hudson (wiki) had a great take - Supporters versus Fans. (X 65s).

Act 3.2 - Transformation - City Get a Breakthrough

An even, tight match came out of HT 0-0. City had the better chances, but it took to 51’ to take some pressure off with an excellent goal, De Bruyne to Haaland (X 30s).

Act 3.3 - Transformation - Our Hero Looks Battered - Things Get Chippy and Tense

Play continued to open up, chances were taken, and play became very physical. A couple key plays add to the drama resulting in two of City’s best players, Kevin De Bruyne and Ederson, being subbed off to injury.

Here are the Extended Highlights - forward to the 6m30s mark and watch to the 9m mark.

• KDB of City is injured on this challenge by Sarr of Spurs, definitely on the edge and resulted in a Yellow Card. KDB would need to be subbed off at 69’.

• City GK Ederson is injured on a tough but fair challenge by Romero and also exits the match at 69’. Another angle of the post Ederson injury (X 30s). Ederson initially stayed in the match. It has been revealed he has a broken eye socket.

• So, on comes reserve keeper Ortega, and Spurs Challenged him twice (8m20s) and again (8m 50s).

Act 3.4 - Transformation - THE CRESCENDO MOMENT - The Title on the Line

And it all came down to this moment at 87’ (X 35s).

Act 4 - The Return

• City now hold their destiny in their own hands. A win at home to West Ham Sunday and the Journey is Won. A loss or draw, and Arsenal could slay the Hero. (Fast Forward to the end of movie - City are -1250 favorites)

In Today’s CleanSheet:

• Headlines 📌

• Current Situation📈📉

• Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥- $335 Millions (in your best Russian accent)

• Off Island 🏝️ - Really Just Headlines

• Best Bets 💰

Headlines 📌

Prize Money. Aside from the Title Race and the Race for Europe, teams are fighting for Table positioning. Each place in the table is worth roughly $3M to the club. 20^th place = $3M, 19^th = $6M….1^st = $60m.

Title On The Line 🏆🏆

Man City -1000 v West Ham +2200. NBC & Peacock.

• City win the title with a win OR Arsenal Draw or Loss.

• West Ham are playing for nothing, they will finish 9^th in the table.

• This may be Moyse’s last match in charge of the Hammers and they are huge underdogs. Expect them sit back and defend, defend, defend and occasionally counter. Only way this match gets interesting is if it’s a 1 goal game well into the 2H. Then it’s possible the Hammer’s look for some attack that could steal a late draw.

Arsenal -588 v Everton +1400. USA Network & Peacock.

• Gunners must win AND City must Draw or Lose for an Arsenal title. A title would be their first in 20 years.

• Everton are 1 point ahead of Brentford in 15th. They cannot catch 14^th place but a loss or draw could drop them a spot lower. On a separate note, if the Toffee’s had their 8 points back from their deduction they would be playing for a top 10 finish.

• The expectation is City will run all over the Hammers. Can the Gunners keep their focus and finish strong if they see City up 2 or more at HT? Everton will most likely play Dyche ball, sitting back defending and countering as allowed.

Race For Europe🏎️🏎️🏎️🏎️

Quick Explanation on the Spots.

• Champions League - 4 Spots. A top 4 finish guarantees Champions League for next year. All 4 of those spots are set - City, Arsenal, Liverpool and Villa.

• 4 Teams are fighting for 3 additional spots, 2 in the Europa League and 1 in the Europa Conference League.

  • Europa League - 2 Spots. It’s more complicated for the EL.

    • 4 teams are in play for EL - Spurs, Chelsea, Newcastle, Man U.

    • 5^th place earns one EL spot.

    • The second EL spot goes to either the FA Cup Winner or 6^th place.

      • If Man United win the FA Cup Title, they will take the EL spot.

      • If Man City win the FA Cup Title, the 6^th place PL team will take the spot.

  • Europa Conference League - 1 Spot. It’s equally complicated for the ECL.

    • 4 teams are in play for EL - Spurs, Chelsea, Newcastle, Man U.

    • If Man United wins the FA Cup, 6^th place in the PL will take the ECL spot.

    • If Man City wins the FA Cup, 7th place will take the ECL spot.

Tottenham -210 at Sheffield United +450. Peacock.

• Spurs need 1 point to secure 5^th place and to earn the Europa League for next season. A Chelsea Draw or Loss would also secure 5^th for Spurs. Spurs can finish no worse than 6^th.

• Sheffield United will finish 20^th and play in the Championship next season.

• Anything but a Win for Spurs would be a big disappointment for Ange and Spurs fans. They will take a draw and the EL spot, but losing to a team with only 3 wins all season would bring into question the direction of the club. The Blades have already set the record for fewest points in the PL, nothing to play for here but a feel-good final day at Bramall Lane.

Chelsea -227 v Bournemouth +500. Golf Channel & Peacock.

• Chelsea can finish 5^th, 6^th or 7^th.

  • 5^th - with a Win AND Spurs loss. - Europa League

  • 6^th - with a Draw OR a Win AND Spurs Win/Draw. - Europa OR Europa Conference League.

  • 7^th - with a Loss AND Newcastle Win. Europa Conference League if Man City Win FA Cup or out of Europe if Man United win FA Cup Final.

• Bournemouth could finish 10, 11, 12 or 13, so real money to play for. A win and BHA loss OR draw and the Cherries finish 10.

• Chelsea have 1 loss in their last 14 and a point guarantees Europe. The Cherries have had a great second half of the season even though they’ve stumbled the last two matches. Both sides have a lot to play for.

Newcastle +120 at Brentford +200. Peacock.

• Newcastle can finish 6^th, 7^th or 8^th. They need help to get in.

  • 6^th - with a Win AND Chelsea loss - EL if City win FA Cup, otherwise ECL.

  • 7^th - with a Chelsea Draw or Win AND Newcastle gets the same result as Man United - ECL if City wins FA Cup.

  • 8^th - with a result that is less than Man United’s result - no Europe Spot.

• Brentford sit 1 point behind Everton. A Bee’s loss keeps them in 16, if Bee’s can gain 1 point and 3 GD OR 2+ points on Everton they can finish 15.

• A win for Newcastle gets them into a Europe spot. A loss and they need a lot of help. Brentford has much less to play for. Bee’s got a great win at Bournemouth last week and have only 1 loss in their last 8, including 4 draws. The Bee’s may take advantage of the pressure on the Magpies and the anticipated attacking style they will most likely play. Newcastle will be all out to win the match.

Man United +185 at BHA +120. CNBC & Peacock.

• Man United is the wildcard in this Europe race. They will finish in either 7^th or 8^th.

  • FA CUP Final - Win the FA Cup, and MU are in the EL next season.

  • 7^th - need a better result than Newcastle - ECL if FA Cup loss.

  • 8^th - A Newcastle win and United stay in 8 - no Europe Spot if FA Cup loss.

• BHA could finish 10, 11, 12, or 13. A win guarantees 10th. A draw or loss and it depends on what Bournemouth, Palace and Wolves do.

• Man United have been giving up a ton of shots. BHA has struggled to score with just 6 goals over their last 10 matches. Both sides have a lot on the line.

Playing for Table Position🦁🦁🦁🦁

Palace +100 v Villa +230. Peacock.

• Palace could finish 10, 11, 12, 13, or 14. 

  • 10^th - Win AND BHA Loss or Draw AND Bournemouth Loss or Draw.

  • 11^th - Win AND BHA Loss or Draw OR Bournemouth Loss or Draw.

  • 12^th - 14^th. Same results as Wolves and Fulham.

• Villa will finish 4.

• A lot more to play for for Palace, and the line represents that. Palace would also like to keep their run going - 5W 1D in last 6. A great result for their new manager Oliver Glasner. Villa is coming off an emotional win at home last weekend and have achieved their goals of a CL spot. Selhurst park is a tough place to go play when you may not be locked in.

Liverpool -667 v Wolves +1400. Peacock.

• Wolves could finish 10, 11, 12, 13, or 14. 

  • 10^th - Win AND BHA Loss AND Bournemouth Loss AND Palace Loss or Draw.

  • 11^th - Win AND BHA Loss OR Bournemouth Loss AND Palace Loss or Draw.

  • 12^th - 14^th. Better results than Palace and Fulham.

• Liverpool will finish 3.

• Klopp’s last match, at Anfield. It will be a celebration and the crowd and his side will be all in. Yes, table positioning is in play for Wolves, but they have limped down the stretch and they need some help to move up. Would be a shocker if this was close.

Burnley +185 v Forest +130. Peacock.

• Burnley could finish 18, or 19. 

  • 18^th - Win AND Luton Town Loss.

• Forest will finish 17.

• Very little to play for in this one. One more win anywhere over the last 37 matches for Burnley and this one would be huge. Clarets will have to fight to keep Vincent Kompany to help make another run at promotion next year. Forest will be making their own decisions on Nuno.

Luton Town +175 v Fulham +140. Peacock.

• Luton Town could finish 18, or 19. 

  • 18^th - Win, Draw (unless Burnley win by 6) OR a Burnley Draw or Loss.

• Fulham could finish 12, 13 or 14.

  • 12^th - Win AND Palace Loss AND Wolves Loss or Draw.

  • 13^th - Win AND Palace Loss OR Wolves Loss or Draw.

  • 14^th - Draw or Loss.

• Luton Town could draw even with Forest but no way they overcome the goal differential. Fulham does have positioning to play for. Should be a good atmosphere at Kenilworth Road.

Current Situation 📈📉

Mid-Week Results included with Current Situation.

Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥

The New #’s are in, $335M on the line.

Championship - The final Promotion spot for the Championship is down to 3 teams with the Finals May 26. Winner moves to the PL, earning a minimum of $335M for the club over the next couple years.

• Leeds beat Norwich 4-0 Thursday, and (4-0 aggregate), to make the Finals. Great scenes post match (X 60s). A win by Leed’s in the Finals would bring them right back up to the PL - that would mean two teams relegated last season went right back up (Leicester City).

• Leeds opponent will be the winner of (3) West Bromwich Albion v (2) Southampton. The current aggrege goals are tied 0-0. You can watch this match on ESPN+ at Noon cst, Friday.

League 1 - Finals May 18.

• (4) Oxford v (1) Bolton Wanderers

League 2 - Finals May 19.

• (4) Crawley v (3) Crewe

Off Island 🏝️

“Off Island” also includes “On Island” this week - to highlight some of the key newsworthy items in play.

Man City currently sit on 88 points and will most likely need 91 to win the Title. Here is a quick look at their most recent winning streak - 5 Titles in the last 6 years, 9 overall to date.

• 2022/23 - 89 Points (second place Arsenal 84)

• 2021/22 - 93 Points (Liverpool 92)

• 2020/21 - 86 Points (Man United 74)

• 2019/20 - Liverpool Won Title with 99 Points (City second with 81)

• 2018/19 - 98 Points (Liverpool 97)

• 2017/18 - 100 Points (Man United 81)

• City also won a title in 2014, 2012, 1968, and 1937.

Forest set a PL record. Forest sit on 29 points with 1 match to go, regardless of their outcome against Burnley Forest have set the record for fewest points earned yet avoided relegation. West Brom set the record in 2004/05 with 34 points. 3 teams have stayed up with 35 and 7 teams with 36.

Scrap VAR. The PL is going to vote on getting rid of VAR. Wolverhampton submitted a proposal to eliminate VAR and cited the 9 reasons below. For this to pass, 14 of the 20 clubs need to agree to it.

1. Negative impact on celebration of goal scoring - CS agrees

2. Frustration and confusion in stadium with lengthy checks - CS agrees

3. More hostile atmosphere towards refs and the game, more protests - maybe

4. Exceeding original purpose of VAR - CS agrees

5. Referee accountability is degraded - CS agrees

6. Persistent errors even with VAR damaging confidence in refs - CS agrees

7. Disruption of fast paced continuous play - CS agrees

8. Constant talk of VAR in the media takes away from the game - maybe

9. Erosion of trust and reputation and corruption allegations - CS agrees

While CS agrees with 7 of the 9 points, there seems to be an option for more of a reformatting of VAR as opposed to completely getting rid of it. VAR should be used for CLEAR AND OBVIOUS errors, something that can be determined by a VAR referee looking at a replay in regular speed in 20s or less. If it’s not clear, the call stands as called on the pitch. No more blades of grass for off-sides or 20 looks at a potential penalty.

Jesse and the USMNT. We don’t talk much about the us national teams, too much other good stuff to cover. But, I would love to read about this in detail if anyone knows what really happened. Jessee Marsch, “I went through a process wiht the US, I wasn’t treated very well.” (X 30s)

Not gonna lie. CS is really going to miss Jurgen Klopp. Watched many of JK’s press conferences over the years, his celebrations, and his many successes and cups. A couple short X videos if you are interested.

• JK is known for changing the culture at Liverpool by engaging the entire club - this week he took an all-staff photo - awesome. (X 20s)

• Take 5 min to watch this for an idea of JK the Manager - JK personality. (X)

• JK the person - (X 1m)

• 1 min of opposing fans on Klopp (90s)

• Good summary of Klopp leaving from SkySports. (1m)

Best Bets 💰

Could just bet $73 and guarantee a winning season, but where’s the fun in that. This is why it’s called Gambling. Betting $600 on 3 matches - Man City, Chelsea and Palace. And an additional $150 across the remaining 7 matches.

FINAL MATCH DAY - Match Week 38

Man City to WIN v West Ham -1000. $500.

Don’t over think it. I just don’t see City losing or drawing this match. Might it be closer than people think. Ederson is not playing, and KDB may not. Will the Hammer’s “park the bus”? Just don’t think it matters. Not sure West Ham will score. I guess they could counter on City and score 1. I considered betting Under 3.5 at +144 thinking City could get up 2 or 3-0 and just ride out the title - bet $40 to win $56 OR I could risk a City and Pep stumble and lose the title, making a $500 bet to win the $50. You can see what I decided.

Arsenal only team to score v Everton -118. $23

The Gunners are just better and even if they see City up big at the half I expect them to go out and dominate. Can they limit the Toffee’s shots to under 2? Maybe. I don’t want to lay the -340 on an Arsenal win so will bet the Clean Sheet.

Tottenham to Win at Sheffield United by -2.5 +179. $20

In 37 matches, SU have lost 27 times. Spurs have a lot to play for and I’m not convinced the Blades are engaged enough, and have enough talent, to give the home crowd a win or draw. Spurs have struggled scoring of late, but not Sunday, they will score and win.

Chelsea to Win v Bournemouth -220. $44

A lot on the line for the Blue’s and they have been great of late at home. The Cherries have accomplished a lot, and a top 10 finish is within reach. Cole Palmer is the difference. Give me the home team secure their spot in Europe and give Poch a boost into the offseason.

Newcastle at Brentford U3.5 -127. $25

Going back to the well one more time. Maybe I shouldn’t. Newcastle has been pretty good defensively on the road all season. After seeing the Bee’s uninspired 0-0 draw home to Fulham a couple weeks ago I have no idea who wins this one. But, I do feel like both sides will dig in defensively and look for their chances later in the match.

Man United to WIN at BHA +200. $20.

This is a bet against BHA more than a bet for MU. BHA are going to get shots, can they convert? Maybe. But give me a United side as an underdog.

Palace to Win v Villa +100. $50

Palace have been playing great under new manager Oliver Glasner, scoring and defending. Villa are still hung over from their celebrations all week making the CL. Now they have to travel to South London against a team that has a shot at a top 10 finish. The odd’s makers understand that making Villa significant underdogs. Give me Palace.

Liverpool Wolves O3.5 goals -160. $32

This just feels like a celebration of Klopp with players who are going to go out on the front foot and and fun. That means Liverpool should score and also be exposed at the back.

Burnley v Forest Draw +260. $20.

Burnley fans show up, and I expect an effort from Kompany and the home side. Forest got lucky this year, they have stayed up in the PL with the fewest points ever and have not been good on the road. Give me the best odds, Draw.

Luton Town to Win @ Fulham +185. $20

The Hatter’s have 1 win in 17, and scored in 16 of them. Fulham have been good at times and are just better than Luton Town. Which side will show up. Give me the home team and the better odds.

Longshot of the Week. Palace, City, Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal all to win+304. $10.