Update 📢

Now that we’re into the rhythm of the season, look for the CleanSheet on Tuesday and Friday mornings, with bonus editions for midweek matches, European competitions and breaking news. Has “Jimmy Buffett Live - Tuesday, Thursdays and Saturdays” vibes.

Check out the CleanSheet Website for previous newsletters, previews for all 20 PL teams, season predictions and additional foundational content.

Today’s CleanSheet includes:

• Headlines 📌- Top of mind

• What 2 Look 4 👀 - this weeks match-ups

• Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥- Double-Click

• Off Island 🏝️ - Area’s of interest outside the PL

• Best Bets 💰- Predictions & Results

CleanSheet - Headlines 📌

• Pencil This One In. Newcastle at Man City 2pm cst on Peacock. The Magpies ran The Villains off the pitch in the second half and look to be firing on all cylinders. City just toyed with Burnley, completely controlling the match but losing key player Kevin De Bruyne (KDB) to injury. Two top contenders in an early season battle to set the tone.

• KDB. Arguably the most valuable player in the world and Man City captain, Kevin De Bruyne, could miss 4 months with a serious hamstring injury. City has the talent and depth to handle it, but this will definitely challenge Pep and could impact City’s title run.

• Still Sponsor-less. Chelsea is still looking for a Shirt/Kit Sponsor for the season. The PL blocked The Blues deal with Paramount+ as not to upset other broadcast partners. Sounds like a new sponsor is on the way, Infinite Athlete, for $75M.

  

  Will Infinite Athlete be added in week 2?

Match Week 2 - CS What 2 Look 4 👀

9 Matches this weekend (link to schedule and odds). LT v Burnley is postponed, good read on Luton Towns stadium, Kenilworth Road, not PL ready (3 min)

Here are the matches CleanSheet will be watching in order of interest, (Home Team v Away Team).

1. Newcastle v Man City (sat) - See above.

2. West ham v Chelsea (sun) - The Blues Odds to finish top 4 are sky rocketing.

3. Tottenham v Man U (sat) - Two heavyweights trying to figure it out.

4. Palace v Arsenal (mon) - Gunners have title aspirations, is this an ambush.

5. Fulham v Brentford (sat) - West London Derby. Can Fulham make it 2 in a row.

6. Wolves v BHA (sat) - Wolves impressed in a loss, BHA rolled, can they handle the road.

7. Villa v Everton (sun) - Steamrolled at NU, Villa should roll here, but have they recovered.

8. Forest v Sheffield U (fri) - Some think these points will impact relegation battle.

9. Liverpool v Bournemouth (sat) - Anything but a Liverpool trouncing will be disappointing.

Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥

FFP & FS - Financial Fair Play & Financial Sustainability

FFP was created by UEFA to prevent clubs from spending beyond means, “financial doping”. Similar concept to the NFL salary cap but goes beyond just player salaries and includes revenue. Over a 3 year rolling period clubs cannot spend ~$125M(actual number fluctuates) beyond what they earn.

• FFP started in 2010 - Quick read on the basics of FFP is and how it works. (5 min read)

• FFP became FS in 2022. Read the basics of Financial Sustainability (3 min).

All clubs struggle with this, most recently it is impacting the start of this season.

• Wolves - Had to change course on their spending this year in order to comply with FS. Manager Julen Lopetegui was angry and said ownership was not fulfilling the vision they gave him when they hired him, which included investments to compete for Europe. 4 days before the season Julen left the club. Here is an open letter (3min read) owner Jeff Shi sent to fans.

• Chelsea - So, how can The Blues spend over $1B in the last 18 months and not be breaking FS?  The short story is, they found a couple loopholes. Chelsea is not in a European Competition this year and the rule allows them to spread their transfer fees across 7 years, not the intended 5 years. The rules also allow the full sale value of any players sold that came up through your own Academy program. There is much more to it, and if you like to dive into the financial decisions of professional sports, Here’s a good breakdown with interesting data.

Off Island 🏝️

German Bundesliga and Italian Serie A kick off this weekend. Some key matchups and where to watch:

• Harry Kane and Bayern Munich start things off Friday 8/18 at 12:30 cst on ESPN+.

• Speaking of Germany - 10 USMNT players are there. Two you might have an interest in:

  • Brenden Aaronson at Union Berlin, play Sunday 730am cst ESPN+.

  • Gio Reyna and Borussia Dortmund are on ABC at 1030am cst Saturday 8/19.

    • Die Gelbe Wand – German for The Yellow Wall (3 min watch), is the south stand of Westphalia Stadium that holds 25,000 people alone, one of the cooler things in sports. Check it out Saturday!

• 3 USMNT players are in Italy.

  • Christian Pulisic & Yunus Musah begin their AC Milan careers Monday 8/21 at 145pm cst on Paramount+.

  • Tim Weah and Juventus kick Sunday 8/20 at 145pm cst on Paramount+.

Best Bets 💰

Season Gains/Losses +$54, 2W 2L on picks

Forest to WIN by 2+ goals +240 v Sheffield United. $20.

I like NF at home coming off good momentum in the second half at Arsenal. SU is going to struggle to score, and I think their first PL road trip will be rough, instead of taking NF -115 to win, I’m taking a Forest win by 2 or more.

Liverpool v AFC B. Over 3.5 goals -115. $20.

Liverpool will score and win by double digits, but Bournemouth won’t sit back, they will play to score. I think they score 1, and 1+3=more than 3.5.

Tottenham to WIN +180 v Man United. $20.

Man United looked lackluster in the midfield against Wolves and I think that will take time to fix. Even without Kane, Spurs can score. Manager Postecoglou will have Spurs playing with high energy and I trust his week 2 adjustments over Red Devil’s manger ten Hag. Add home field. Spurs win.

Palace to WIN +500 v Arsenal. $20.

I think Arsenal could win the PL, but they looked sluggish in the second half against Forest and its possible they struggle in their first road test. Palace looked good in week 1 on the road and they could catch some magic at home. An early lead by Palace could make things interesting. I like the +500 odds.

Newcastle to WIN at Man City Score +390. $20.

How can you bet against Man City at home. They cruised at Burnley last week. Last season they finished 18W 1L at home. City had to play Wednesday night in a “money grab” cup, played between last year's Champions League and Europa League winners (they won in a shootout 1-1, 5-4). For Newcastle, this is a litmus test, have they closed the gap on City? The Magpies looked unstoppable against a good Villa team last week. They will score in this match, so there are two bets to consider: Man City WIN and NU score +224, OR NU WIN outright +390. Take the +390.