CS EPL Summer Season 6.12

We are JUMPING right into Off Island 🌴🌴🌴 This week.

The USMNT got completely SMOKED by Colombia (pun intended) in a “friendly” 1-5 and two things came immediately to mind…..

While the CS focuses primarily on the English Premier League, we will talk about anything we find interesting across the Europe Leagues as well as key soccer tournaments across the globe.

So, that being said - WTF is going on with the USMNT.

Historical Context

In 1930 the USMNT made it out of the Group Stage and into the Round of 16….that did not happen again until 1994 when the United States hosted the World Cup. Ironically, a 2-1 win against Colombia in the Rose Bowl propelled the team into the Round of 16, where they lost 1-0 to the eventual champion, Brazil.

In 2002 the team had their best finish in a World Cup ever. First, they advanced to the Round of 16 with a big 3-2 win over Portugal. Then, in the Round of 16 the US faced their rival Mexico for the first time ever in a World Cup, winning 2-0. In the quarterfinals the team lost to Germany, with some controversy when they were denied a hand ball penalty that prevented a Gregg Berhalter (yes, that one) goal.

The rest of the 2000’s and early 2010’s had some successes - beating top ranked Spain 2-0 and snapping their 35-match unbeaten streak comes to mind. So does this goal in extra time by Landon Donovan that beat Algeria and advanced the USMNT to the final 16 in 2014.

What Happened Next

The US missed the 2018 World Cup, did not qualify. They then hired Berhalter who got the team back into the 2022 World Cup where they did not lose a match in the Group stage, winning 1 and drawing 2. They then lost to the Netherlands in the Round of 16, 1-3.

Fast Forward to Today & Expectations

There is an expectation that this is the most talent the team has ever had. In addition, coming out of 2014 the expectation was for the USMNT to take the next step - a win in the quarterfinals over the next couple World Cups. That didn’t happen, but a Round of 16 finish in 2022 was at least pointing the team in the right direction.

In 2023 it looked like Berhalter was on his way out. The USSF conducted a 6-month hiring search, led by new Sporting Director Matt Crocker, but Berhalter was reappointed head coach. It was reported that the players like him and wanted him back and that was a factor in Gregg retaining the job.

Some Data

• The USMNT had not given up 5 goals in its previous 240 matches, since 2009, and before that it hadn’t happened since 1990.

• All 11 starters play in the top 5 leagues in the world, in Europe - that’s never happened on the team.

• GB is 34W 5D 7L against CONCACAF opponents (not highly ranked except Mexico), on the surface it seems good.

• But, GB is 8W 7D 7L against non-CONCACAF opponents.

• GB is 5W 7D 6L against teams ranked in FIFA’s top 20, 4 of those wins were against Mexico.

• The best GB result? Maybe the 1-1 draw to England in the 2022 World Cup

• Maybe not data - but the game was played at the Washington Commanders stadium and was 60/40 Colombia fans….maybe more.

What to Watch For

This team is not playing well, and they have 1 month to figure it out and provide a springboard into the run up of the 2026 World Cup.

The USMNT plays Brazil in a Friendly Wednesday night - this has now become a huge friendly.

After that, its June 20 thru July 14 - Copa America - Full schedule here. The USMNT need to exceed expectations in the Copa America Tournament, that means getting to the final four. If they fall short, they will need to look good doing so. For example, if they lose to Brazil or Colombia in the quarterfinals in a tight match decided late that may be enough to consider the tournament a success.

Group play for the US includes Boliva June 23, Panama June 27, Uruguay July1.

If the US gets pounded by Brazil and does not get 2 wins in the Group in the Copa America, expect significant changes.

Might as well JUMP to the next topic - Euro2024🏆🏆🏆

Euro2024 Primer

Here are the odds for winning the tournament (+300 means a $100 bet wins $300)

@premierleague on X has every PL team’s Euro2024 participants…..

CS Predictions

• The Top 10 teams in betting odds could win the whole thing.

• Spain, England and Belgium will underperform.

• Italy will not go back-to-back.

• Croatia - they have a very experienced but old squad, can they keep their legs and get good minutes from the young guys - if yes, they could surprise - but not win it.

• That leaves 5 teams - France, Germany, Portugal, Netherlands and Denmark.

• Denmark is just not on the level of the other 4.

• Portugal has Ronaldo, but he’s been in Saudi Arabia, LIV will not win.

• Depending on how these 3 teams line up, 2 will have to play each other.

• Germany Wins It - I like the home side that has the talent and has something to prove after underperforming of late. Will take the +530.

• Kylian Mbappe and Harry Kane will compete for top goal scorer, it may come down to who has more games, since England gets knocked out, it will be the new Real Madrid striker.

Let’s Jump to some news…..

• Eric ten Hag is staying at Man United.

• The Championship (level 2, just below the PL) broke an all-time record for attendance last season, beating out the Bundesliga, La Liga, Serie A to the be second most attended league in Europe - behind the PL.

• Planning to go to England next season? The schedule is set to be released next week.

Speaking of Jump

You may be asking, why so much “Jumping” in this newsletter.

Can’t believe it was 40 years ago Van Halen released their album 1984.

Reminder

• The Schedule You Should Expect - CS will be 1X weekly, with occasional breaking news content during the offseason

• Season Previews to begin in late July, daily, leading up to MW1.

• Match Week 1. PL Season 2024/25 kicks off August 17 and we will be back to our Tuesday, Friday Schedule.

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