25/26 Match Week 9 Preview

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Memory Lane

Joe Carter & Kirk Gibson

The World Series opens up Friday night with the LA Dodgers traveling to the Toronto Blue Jays.

This brings back some great memories for CS……Here are two quick stories.

• What 2 Look 4 👀 

• Headlines 📌

• Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥- CS Grades

• Off Island 🏝️ - European Results

• Best Bets 💰

What 2 Look 4 👀- Match Week 9

(reminder - like driving on the other side of the road, in the PL, HOME teams are listed first)

• 1.4.5 Week. 1 Friday, 4 Saturday, 5 Sunday.

Fighting for Top 10 🔝🔝

• Man United +102 v BHA +233 SAT 1130a - 9 hosts 10 in the Table and both sides are running a nice streak. United will be looking to take their momentum forward after winning 2 in a row for the first time this season. BHA has 2W 2D in their last 4 and are playing at a high level. or will they do what they’ve done, lose after a win. BHA have won 6 of the last 10 but United have won the last 3 at Old Trafford. Should be a great game as United are starting to look more like a United you would expect and BHA are starting to click under Hurzeler again.

• Everton +136 v Tottenham +194 SUN 1130a - Everton will look to get back on track with their home pitch advantage at Hill Dickinson Stadium where they have yet to lose this season. Spurs hot streak has cooled a little, still sitting 6 in the table but just 5 points in their last 4 matches. This one feels like it will be a “chess match” between the managers - Moyes and Frank. Expect lots of subs in the 2H who could tilt the pitch in their sides favor. Which way?, you will have to watch.

BIG Road Dogs 🐕🐕🐕🐕🐕🐕

• Chelsea -245 v Sunderland +631 SAT 9a - Chelsea has their PL season back on track after back-to-back wins and they will be looking to keep their home field Stamford Bridge advantage intact. Will be a tall task for Sunderland who have been great at home but not so much on the road. The Blues have won the last 5 meetings with Sunderland. A win for the Black Cat’s would be a huge step towards surprising as a promoted side looking to stay in the top 10 in the table.

• Arsenal -230 v Palace +625 SUN 9a - LONDON DERBY (North v South) - Match of the Week as the top sided Gunners host a Palace side who continue their point collecting ways. The Gunners have won 16 of the last 27 PL matches against Palace. Would seem like a low scoring match as both sides can shut down scoring. It feels like Arsenal have found that next step they’ve needed in previous seasons while Palace seem to be falling back to the average after their strong start.

• Newcastle -169 v Fulham +439 SAT 9a - Both sides are underperforming expectations. Newcastle performs better at home and FFC have been very poor on the road this season. In the last 37 meetings its been even, 16W 16L 5D for both sides.

• Bournemouth -149 v Forest +371 SUN 9a - Major mismatch between the Cherries and the Tree’s given current form. If Bournemouth expect to challenge for top 4, these are the kind of matches they need to dominate. As for Tree’s, their 5 goals scored and 15 allowed on the season are all you need to know. This side that challenged top 4 last year are lost in the woods. The big question will be the impact Sean Dyche could have as he will most likely head into Vitality Stadium looing to settle into a defensive approach.

• Wolves -102 v Burnley +305 SUN 9a - Big match in the relegation battle. Wolves need to hold serve at home while Burnley would like to collect points for the first time on the road. Burnley’s road woes versus Wolves home frustrations. Feels like a must win for Wolves at home. Burnley will sit back and look to counter. Whoever avoids defensive mistakes will have the edge. In the last 20 matchups this has been a tossup, 7W 7L 6D.

• Leeds -110 v West Ham +303 FRI 2p - Big early season match in the relegation battle. West Ham have looked lost and are hoping Nuno can stabilize the ship while Leeds have looked pretty good at Elland Road, but don’t really have the points to show for it. In the last 24 PL matches Leeds hold the edge with 15W 5L 4D

Home Dogs 🐶🐶

• Brentford +340 v Liverpool -145 SAT 2p - The Bee’s are surprising, creating great chances through set pieces and long crosses. Liverpool are also surprising, losing their last 3 PL matches and scoring just 1 goal in each. The Red’s did have a breakout scoring 5 goals in Frankfurt in the CL. Might want to call this an aerial game. Liverpool’s defense has been shaky, the Red’s have scored in every match yet lost 3. Should help having Virgil van Dyke and his height securing the back line against a Bee’s side that likes to send the ball in to their tall strikers.

• Villa +281 v City -115 SUN 9a - After not scoring a goal in their first 4 matches Villa have scored 8 in their last 4 and have won 5 matches in a row across the PL and EL. Erling Haaland has scored 11 goals himself on the season in the PL, City have 17 as a team. City have not lost in 7 matches, 5W 2D. Unai Emery usually finds way’s to take points from the top sides. City have a big advantage in this one winning 33 of the last 49 meetings, although Villa have won 2 of the last 3. This just feels like Haaland will threaten to score 2+ goals while Villa will need to take advantage of every shot they take.

Headlines 📌

• Welcome Home. We’ve talked about it before, lots of respect for Sean Dyche. While Dyche has a pub named after him in the shadows of Turf Moor in Burnley, The Royal Dyche, he now is managing Nottingham Forest with the goal of righting the ship, and that includes both the PL and Europa League. Dyche came through the Tree’s academy program as a player in the 1980s and he knows the fan base well. In a recent presser he stated “The basics have always got to be in place. Strong, fit and organized in a good starting point, I want the players to have their freedom to go and play…..”. Will be fun to watch what he can do with a side lost in the woods.

  • Very happy to have Dyche back in the league for the voice, and moment like this - “skinny jeans, flare jeans” (x 20s) - his interviews are a great listen.

• CS - What to key on.

  • Relegation Impact.

    • Feels like must win for Wolves. A win for either Wolves or Burnley will be key points in the relegation battle.

    • Does West Ham care? If they don’t rebound from what was maybe the worst performance of any club this season last week at home….they are in deep shit.

  • Can Man United take the momentum forward or will they stumble again.

  • Liverpool need to break their 3 game losing streak in the PL.

  • Villa and Everton will need to rely on their home pitch advantage.

Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥

Time for CS Grades

We are 8 of 38 matches into the season. Even though there is A LONG way to go, and a transfer window coming up in January, it’s time to hand out grades for where teams are at.

This is NOT just a relisting of the table, it is OPINION - based on quality of play, results, results versus expectations, and general feel from what’s “been put on tape”.

Off Island 🏝️

Champions & Europa League Match 3 of 8 - RESULTS

(all matches on Paramount+ cst)

Great CL week for EPL teams, across the 6 matches - Cumulative score 19-1, 16 of 18 points collected and 4 Clean Sheets.

• Man City 2-0 Villarreal in Spain.

• Arsenal 4-0 Atletico Madrid (Spain) at home.

• Newcastle 3-0 Benfica (Portugal) at home.

• Liverpool 5-1 Frankfurt in Germany.

• Chelsea 5-1 (Netherlands) at home.

• Tottenham 0-0 Monaco in France.

Here are all the matches and the Table.

Europa League kicks off match 3 of 8.

• Forest 2-0 Porto (Portugal).

• Villa 1-2 at Go Ahead Eagles in the Netherlands. Big upset.

UEFA Conference League kicks off match 2 of 8.

• Palace 0-1 AEK Larnaka (Cyprus).

Best Bets 💰

Season - Up $17

• MW1 ($14)

• MW2 $183

• MW3 ($10)

• MW4 $43

• MW5 ($127)

• MW6 ($75)

• MW7 $32

• MW8 ($15)

CleanSheet Season Gains/Losses: Starting Balance $1000. Current Standing $1,017.

High level thoughts on this weeks games.

There will be a couple games with a bunch of goals this week and a couple games with clean sheets. The question is, which games will provide which. Feels like Arsenal and Newcastle have a good chance of keeping clean sheets. Feels like BHA/United, Brentford/Liverpool and Chelsea/Sunderland will see a bunch of goals.

Found some good odds for anytime goal scorers so will take some longer shot swings.

Leeds to Win v West Ham -120. $24

Leeds strong at home, Hammer’s reeling and even if they show effort, Leeds better at home.

Chelsea to Win v Sunderland by -1.5 goals +112. $20

Chelsea at home and Sunderland on the road points to a big win for the Blues.

Newcastle to Win via CS v Fulham +157. $20

Newcastle averages 1.5 goals at home while Fulham have not kept a clean sheet on the road, expect the Magpies to score while FFC will struggle to score. Will take a swing at bigger odds with keeping a clean sheet.

Arsenal to Win via CS v Palace +120. $20

Gunners have not allowed a shot on goal in their last 2 games, and they are playing at home sitting at the top of the table, they are gelling. Palace can score but decided to take the better odds for the Gunners to keep their run of just 3 goals allowed on the season.

BHA to Win at United +236. $20

Maybe United has turned the corner after their win over Liverpool at Old Trafford, or maybe not. Until they start to string wins together, I will take the higher odds and look for BHA to continue their hot play and get all three points.

United v BHA Over 3.5 +133. $20

There will be goals. If BHA wins 3-1 or better we win both bets. If United draws or wins with goals, we still win.

Brentford v Liverpool Over 3.5 +130. $20

Liverpool have scored in every PL match this season and have kept just 2 clean sheets. Bees have been scoring off set pieces and deep crosses, they will fine the net in this one.

Man City to Win v Aston Villa -119. $24

Just feels like City are figuring things out and while Villa has played great over their last 4 matches, and even though this match is at Villa Park, Haaland will find a way to put City over the top.

Bournemouth v Forest 2H > goals than 1H +104. $20

Both these sides tend to save their scoring for the 2H, so taking more goals in the 2H.