25/26 Match Week 4 Preview

• What 2 Look 4 👀 

• Headlines 📌

• Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥- Viewership

• Off Island 🏝️ - USMNT

• Best Bets 💰

What 2 Look 4 👀- Match Week 4

(reminder - like driving on the other side of the road, in the PL, HOME teams are listed first)

• 8.2 Week. 8 Saturday, 2 Sunday. - THREE DERBY’s this weekend

CAUTION - early season returns from International Break often result in tighter matches where teams with fewer players playing for their international teams over perform their expectations (opinion, no data to share).

Match of the Week 👑

• Man City -150 v Man United +368 SUN 1130a - MANCHESTER DERBY - The last time Man City lost 3 straight matches in the PL, 2016. The Citizens currently sit on two losses heading into their clash with United who are looking for their second straight win at the Etihad. United sit ahead of City in the table for just the third time in 10 years when this Derby has been played. Loser of this one will be sitting in the bottom 10 of the table, a draw and maybe both sides, yet it is still very early in the season.

Home Dogs 🌭🌭🌭

• Burnley +813 v Liverpool -328 SUN 9a cst - The Red’s are 10W 2D 0L in their last 12 against Burnley and with an average goal advantage of 2.6 to 0.2. Should be a GREAT environment at Turf Moor, a short drive northeast out of Liverpool. Burnley looks like they will compete to stay up this season but this may not be the match to judge that on. This one is not as lopsided historically as you might think. Liverpool holds the advantage at 50W 35L 26D. But, since the start of the current PL in 1992 Liverpools record is 14W 2L 2D.

• Brentford +353 v Chelsea -137 SAT 2p - WEST LONDON DERBY - The “underdog” Bee’s have not lost to The Blues in the last 4 matchups, 2W 2D. Keith Andrews, Bee’s new manager, has seemed to settle in getting good performance for the Bee’s after week 1 while Enzo Maresca has the Blue’s sitting second in the table. Not surprisingly, Brentford are excellent off set pieces. Probably has to do with Andrews experience as Set Piece Coach at the club. Chelsea is the better team and will need to handle these set pieces to limit the Bee’s good chances.

• West Ham +231 v Tottenham +110 SAT 1130p - LONDON DERBY (East v North) - The Hammers were struggling and found a way to get all 3 points heading into the break while the Spurs were flying high but then stumbled into the break. On paper Spurs are better, and in the managers’s box, but the Hammer’s momentum and play by Paqueta and Bowen could be the difference.

Big Home Favorites 🍨🍨🍨🍨

• Arsenal -267 v Forest +688 SAT 630a - How will the Tree’s react returning from the break, heading to North London, with new manager Ange Postecoglou. The former Spurs manager will now lead Forest into Spurs biggest rival, Arsenal. Gunners have looked really good so far and this is the kind of match they need to dominate in and take all three points.

• Newcastle -234 v Wolves +581 SAT 9a - Both sides looking for their first win of the season, but the Magpies have looked pretty good while Wolves have not. In the last 5 matchups Newcastle has 4W 0L 1D and in their 20 total matches Wolves have only won 2. Both sides have also only scored 2 goals each but Wolves have allowed 8 versus Newcastle’s 3. Tough match coming out of the break for Wolves.

• Palace -158 v Sunderland +434 SAT 9a - Lots of energy for both these sides to start the season. The Black Cats have looked good at home while Palace has yet to lose with a win and 2 draws. These teams have only played 9 times since 2013 with Palace holding a slight edge at 4W 3L 2D. Will be interesting to watch how Sunderland handles the road.

• Fulham -110 v Leeds +298 SAT 9a - Feels like Fulham has underachieved this season and Leeds over achieved, so far. Had to remind myself FFC has yet to win this season. Leeds have maximized their one goal on the season with a win and a draw. Fulham does seem to find ways to take points at Craven Cottage.

Spicy 🌶️🌶️

• Everton +146 v Villa +187 SAT 9a - Freaky Friday, you know, where two people live in the others body. Everton seem to be a team competing for Europe this season and have lots of energy. Villa have yet to score a goal, have had no energy, and sit in the relegation zone. This is the complete opposite of what these teams have done the last several seasons. Will be a spicy match to watch.

• Bournemouth +141 v BHA +180 SAT 9a - Two smaller South Coast clubs outkicking their coverage, on size, not on talent because they are very very good. It’s been pretty even between these sides each winning 5, losing 5 and drawing 1. Can BHA get up for the trip to Vitality Stadium after all the emotion they had in their take down of City before the break. The Cherries will be looking to take their momentum from back to back wins hoping to move into the top 4 of the league.

Headlines 📌

• Manchester Derby. City host United Sunday, 1030am cst.

  • It’s November 12, 1881 (124 years ago) and Manchester, England is in the heart of the Industrial Revolution - both great opportunity and hardship. The work was in the cotton mills and factories where working class families lived in cramped tenements with limited sanitation. A factory worker worked 12-hour days for $2/week, enough to cover monthly rent of $3/month. The city buzzed with energy - music halls, political rallies, department stores and gas lit streets. Newton Heath (which would become Man United) and St Mark’s (which would become Man City) played their first match - minimal facilities, free to the public or 1 penny depending on location. United won 3-0.

  • Today - Separated by 4 miles - the size and success of both clubs bring on this heated rivalry each year.

  • 1962 - the last time a player was transferred from one club to the other.

  • Love this Commercial on highlighting the differences between a city fan and a united fan - “Born Into It” (60s YT)

  • With all the success lately for City, they still are behind United in the win column. In 196 matches, United has 80W 61L 55D.

  • Most recently, City and Man United drew 0-0 at Old Trafford.

  • City are pretty big favorites at home -150 to Win, +305 to Draw. United is +368 to WIN.

  • By their standards and expectations - both sides are early struggling this year, United have more pressure as City can rest on their 6 titles in 8 years.

Speaking of history - here is an interesting visual on when each current PL club was founded.

Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥

Subscriber Question & Response.

Recently, CS was asked “How many people watch the EPL?”. This was in the context of the start of NCAA & NFL Football kicking off. @CFBONFOX reported the NCAA opener between Ohio State and Texas was the most-watched week 1 CFB game in history at 16.6M viewers and the third most watched regular season game ever on FOX. It was also a big weekend for the NFL (aren’t they all"). According to Nielson ratings, when Green Bay hosted Detroit last Sunday the game was the most-watched Week 1 game since the NFL returned to CBS in 1998, with 23.9M viewers tuning in to watch the Packers beat the Lions 27-13. (GO PACK GO!)

So, back to the original question - “How many people watch the EPL?”. The answer is a little more complicated when it comes to EPL viewership. Are we asking just in the USA? Just in England? All languages? All broadcasts and streaming services?

To answer the question, let’s look at Manchester United - a similar comparison to OSU, Texas and Green Bay when thinking about popularity of the club in their respective leagues.

• Man United is a top 5 soccer club in the world.

• It is estimated there are ~650M+ Man United fans globally.

• United has 225M social media followers. For comparison, Green Bay has 15M and Ohio State has 3M. According to Grok, the Dallas Cowboys lead all NFL teams with 19M.

• “Big” United EPL matches, like the Derby this weekend, will have over 200M viewers.

• On 8/17 the Man United v Arsenal game was viewed by 2M viewers in the USA.

• In the US, HELLTOWN BEER: Soccer Viewership AUG 18 - 24, collects interesting viewership data. Really like the follow on X. Here is a chart they have created for US Soccer viewership regardless of League.

The EPL lives at the top of the chart below, other soccer leagues (MLS, La Liga, etc) live at the bottom of the chart.

• In the USA.

  • For big matches, the EPL has ~12% of the viewership of NCAA Football and 8% of the NFL.

  • The AVERAGE EPL viewership per match in the USA is 500,000 viewers.

• Globally is a different answer.

  • The top NFL teams can see 30M viewers globally per game.

  • NCAA global viewership is negligible.

  • The top EPL clubs can see 150-200M viewers globally, so for big matches, the EPL is 500-700% bigger than the NFL.

  • The AVERAGE EPL viewership per match globally is 30M.

Off Island 🏝️

USMNT

In a previous edition of the CS we talked about people needing to R-E-L-A-X about the USMNT preparing for the World Cup, then they went out and got run over by South Korea 0-2 and “the internet blew up”, Poch went off at press conferences and fans lost it. Then, the USMNT beat Japan 2-0 and the immediate reaction was “Japan is not playing many of their starters”.

There is no winning when playing International friendlies. RELAX. These are like pre-season NFL games.

Less than 300 days to the World Cup.

Best Bets 💰

MW1 Down $14.

MW2 Up $183.

MW3 Down $10

CleanSheet Season Gains/Losses: Starting Balance $1000. Current Standing $1,159.

Arsenal to Win v Forest v CS +112. $20

Changing managers and traveling to Arsenal is difficult, and Gunners can lock teams down.

Chelsea to win at Brentford AND over 1.5 goals -105. $21

The Blues will handle the set pieces of the Bee’s and outscore them.

Tottenham to Win at West Ham +120. $20

I trust Thomas Frank and Spurs to bounce back more than I trust Graham Potter and Hammers.

Man United to Win at Man City +360. $10

Taking the odds as it seems City is over valued and this Derby can go either way, but just half a usual bet.

Bournemouth to Win v BHA +140. $20

Two good sides. Cherries will find a way at home to outscore a solid BHA side.

Newcastle to Win v Wolves AND over 2.5 goals in match +104. $20

Wolves have struggled defensively so I expect goals to be scored and I expect Newcastle to win.