25/26 Match Week 18 Preview

American Football, Black Cats & Win via Clean Sheet

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  • What 2 Look 4 👀 

  • Headlines 📌

  • Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥- Sunderland Deep Dive

  • Off Island 🏝️ - NFL Update

  • Best Bets 💰

What 2 Look 4 👀- Match Week 18

(reminder - like driving on the other side of the road, in the PL, HOME teams are listed first)

  • 1.7.2 Week. 1 Friday, 7 Saturday, 2 Sunday.

Friday - Boxing Day

  • 7 Man United +108 v 11 Newcastle +218 FRI 2p - Both sides have shown really good and not so good. Old Trafford has not been a difference maker for United, but Newcastle have struggled all year on the road.

Saturday

  • 17 Forest +454 v 2 City -180 SAT 630a - Sherwood showdown, can Pep’s side keep up the pace and chop down the trees.

  • 5 Liverpool -461 v 7 Wolves +1133 SAT 9a - Wolves are wandering in the wilderness, playing like a non-cohesive pack. Anfield will be expecting a complete route.

  • 1 Arsenal -230 v 9 BHA +575 SAT 9a - De Zerbi brings the seagulls to London where the Gunners are waiting to destroy a side struggling to find a consistent flight pattern.

  • 18 West Ham +187 v 13 Fulham +143 SAT 9a - LONDON DERBY (East v West) - Cottagers heading to West London looking for some road cleaning (bubbles) but just might be hammered.

  • 19 Burnley +297 v 10 Everton -109 SAT 9a - Lancashire, a stunning countryside of rolling hills and pastureland and a small town of Burnley where the fighting Clarets host a team from the west coast, the Toffee’s.

  • 12 Brentford +123 v 15 Bournemouth +205 SAT 9a - Bee’s will be buzzing when the Cherries come to West London, feels like there will be goals.

  • 4 Chelsea -117 v 3 Villa +300 SAT 1130a - The Blue’s will be looking to keep Aston Villa from 11 straight wins. Chelsea sit 7 points behind Villa in the standings but just one position.

Sunday

  • 6 Sunderland +158 v 16 Leeds +175 SUN 8a - Black v White as these two recently promoted sides face off in the PL.

  • 8 Palace +108 v 14 Tottenham +248 SUN 1030a - LONDON DERBY (South v North) - Roles are reversed as Palace sit above Spurs in the table and are favored over a Thomas Frank side trying to find some inspiration.

Headlines 📌

  • Lots of Match Weeks throughout December, gonna really test clubs depth and provide you with non stop watching/betting opportunities. 9 matches in 6 weeks, plus Europe Competitions December 9-10.

    • MW 13 - November 29-30.

    • MW 14 - MID WEEK December 2-4.

    • MW 15 - December 6-8.

    • Champions/Europa/UEFA Conference - December 9-10.

    • MW 16 - December 13-15.

    • MW 17 - December 20-22. (YOU ARE HERE)

    • MW 18 - December 26-28.

    • MW 19 - December 30-January 1

    • MW 20 - January 3-4.

    • MW 21 - January 6-8.

Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥

  🐈‍⬛🐈‍⬛ Sunderland Deep Dive 🐈‍⬛🐈‍⬛

Sunderland were promoted from the Championship last season and now sit in the top 10 of the Premier League. Their home pitch advantage at the Stadium of Light has been a key reason for their success. Here is more on The Black Cats.

The Best Club You May Have Not Known. Sunderland FC is a Medium-Large club with great history, it’s just been a while since they’ve lifted trophies, the last being in 1973. In their history the club has only spent 5 seasons outside of the top 2 levels of English Football, 4 of those seasons were 2018-2022. So, if you are somewhat new to the EPL you probably have not heard of Sunderland. Kinda like NFL fans under the age of 40 who may not know the Chicago Bears play in the league.

Great Supporters. According to the International Centre for Sports Studies, Sunderland FC has the 38th highest average attendance for Soccer in the World - higher than big clubs like Juventus in Italy and Porto in Portugal and consistently average in the top 20 across England. When Sunderland fell to League 1 in 2018, they set the all-time attendance record for that league at over 46,000 fans. This club is in position to stay in the PL if they can get over this first season back.

Eight Years. It’s been 8 years since Sunderland has been in the PL, and 4 of those were in League 1 (Level 3). After winning the Championship promotion playoff at the end of last season The Black Cats have pretty much turned over their entire roster in hopes of buying PL level talent. In fact, Sunderland spent the 6th most in terms of (sales - acquisition) in all of Europe this off-season, net -$125M. They brought in 11 new players. Looks like they are pulling out all the stops to stay up.

Regis Le Bris. The Frenchman took over at the start of last season and delivered a promotion, but there are questions around his ability to coach at the PL level. In France’s top league, Ligue 1, he was relegated the season before coming to Sunderland. Le Bris focuses on defensive solidity. He will need to find goals if he wants to keep Sunderland in the PL.

Sunderland ‘Til I Die. In 2018 the sports documentary series, Sunderland ‘Til I Die, was released on Netflix and ran for three seasons. The series starts with Sunderland having been relegated from the PL into the Championship and captures the deep connection to its working-class supporters and the city’s history. It’s worth your time. The series covers the clubs surprising relegation down to League 1 (Level 3) when they probably thought they were covering what would be a promotion back to the EPL. Its authenticity inspired Rob McElhenney and Ryan Reynolds to buy Wrexham and document their seasons in Welcome to Wrexham.

Located in Sunderland, Tyne & Wear (Northeast Coast)

Stadium of Light, 49,000 capacity

Rough estimates

$50M Annual Revenue

$20M Player Payroll

Logo at Stadium of Light

Song

Wise Men Say (Link to YT)

Based on the song Can’t Help Falling In Love by Elvis Presley, this song is played before kickoff of each match since the 1990s.

Wise men say, “Only fools rush in,” But I can’t help falling in love with you. Sunderland! (Clap, Clap, Clap) Sunderland! (Clap, Clap, Clap) Sunderland! (Clap, Clap, Clap)

History on the Pitch
  • 6 Titles, last in 1936

  • 2 FA Cup, 1973

  • 0 Europe Cups

Ownership

Sunderland Limited. Kyril Louis-Dreyfus (Swiss-French businessman) acquired a majority stake of Sunderland in 2021 at age 23 purchasing 41% and then increasing that to 64% in 2022. Kyril is heir to the Louis-Dreyfus Group, a global commodities empire with $36B in value.

The Louis-Dreyfus Company - LDC

Our diversified portfolio covers the entire agriculture and food value chain, from farm to fork. We rely on our global reach and extensive asset network to deliver for customers and consumers around the world – safely, reliably and responsibly.

Off Island 🏝️

Quick Look at the NFL Playoff Situation

  • 11 of 14 teams are officially in the playoffs.

  • 6 teams remain in play for the final 3 spots.

  • All seeding is still up in the air.

  • 2 weeks of the season remain.

NFC Scenarios

Teams IN - 6 of 7

  • Seattle Seahawks

  • Chicago Bears

  • Philadelphia Eagles

  • San Francisco 49ers

  • Los Angelas Rams

  • Green Bay Packers

2 Teams Fighting for the 1 final spot

  • Carolina Panthers - 2 Wins and Panthers are in. 1 Win and a Tampa loss and the Panthers are in. Carolina and Tampa Bay play each other in the final week of the season.

  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Must win if Carolina wins in week 17. Could lose in week 17 if Carolina loses. This would set up the final week where the winner goes to the playoffs between Carolina and Tampa.

AFC Senarios

Teams IN - 5 of 7

  • Denver Broncos

  • New England Patriots

  • Jacksonville Jaguars

  • LA Chargers

  • Buffalo Bills

4 Teams Fighting for Final 2 spots

  • Pittsburgh Steelers - Clinch a division title and playoff berth with ONE win or ONE Baltimore Ravens loss. Pittsburgh plays Baltimore the last week of the season.

  • Houston Texans - Earn a playoff berth with a Win OR an Indianapolis Colts Loss.

  • Indianapolis Colts - Earn a playoff berth with TWO WINS AND TWO Houston Texans losses.

  • Baltimore Ravens - Clinch a division title and playoff berth with TWO wins AND TWO Pittsburgh Steelers losses. Baltimore plays Pittsburgh the last week of the season.

Best Bets 💰

Season - Up $123

  • MW1 ($14)

  • MW2 $183

  • MW3 ($10)

  • MW4 $43

  • MW5 ($127)

  • MW6 ($75)

  • MW7 $32

  • MW8 ($15)

  • MW9 ($1)

  • MW10 $83

  • MW11 ($12)

  • MW12 ($23)

  • MW13 ($34)

  • MW14 $33

  • MW15 ($19)

  • MW16 $67

  • MW17 $12

CleanSheet Season Gains/Losses: Starting Balance $1000. Current Standing $1,123.

Week 18 Picks

Liverpool to Win v Wolves via Clean Sheet +103. $20

Liverpool’s defense has been “poor”, but Wolves offense has been “poorer”.

Arsenal to win v BHA via Clean Sheet +128. $20

Feels like another 1-0 Gunner’s win.

Man City to Win at Forest via Clean Sheet +165. $20

Liverpool’s defense has been “poor”, but Wolves offense has been “poorer”.

Sunderland to Win v Leeds +164. $20

Stadium of Light energize Black Cats.

Palace to Win v Spurs +125. $20

Taking the better side at home.

Brentford v Bournemouth over 3.5 goals +156. $20

There will be goals.

Villa to Win at Chelsea +300. $10

That’s a big line for a team that has won 10 straight. Even for going to Chelsea where they have been defensive stalwarts.

Longshots of the week

Sunderland, Palace to Win +479. $10

Liverpool, West Ham, Sunderland to Win +781. $10

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