24/25 Match Week 1 Recap

Nice way to kick off the season - meeting CS subscribers in person!

Great seeing US fans making the trip over for matches! Looked like a beautiful day at the Emirates, and a home side W.

In Today’s CleanSheet:

• Headlines 📌

• Current Situation📈📉

• Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥- gaf-fer

• Off Island 🏝️ - Rule Changes

• Best Bets 💰

Headlines 📌

• Zirkzee Kicks Off the Season. Man United 1-0 Fulham. United had the better chances, in fact, they missed a couple that players at this level should score 99% of the time. Yet, it took ‘til the 87’ to secure the 3 points.

  • Joshua Zirkzee with the touch and the first goal of the PL season.

  • Garnacho - not so much, wow.

• CS Highlights.

  • Newcastle overcome a very questionable red card at 28’, are gifted a goal by Southampton Alex McCarthy, and hang on to win 1-0 after being outshot 19-3. That’s a missed opportunity for the Saints.

  • BHA with a score line that any 31 yo debut manager would want. Everton actually had the better of it for the first 55’ and had a PK called off by VAR that changed all the momentum. Then a red card to Ashley Young at 66’ and BHA took advantage for a big start on the road.

  • Gunners 2-0 Wolves. Don’t let Saka get to his left foot, Don’t let Saka get to his left foot, Do NOT let Saka get to his left foot. You let him get to his left foot.

  • City 2-0 Chelsea. Pretty much as expected. Erling Haaland scored in the 1H, Chelsea had chances and looked like a talented side that needs more time together to gel, was noticeable inside the box and converting. This no-call hand ball would’ve been called last season (most likely) and resulting in a PK for Chelsea late in the match. That’s 10 straight matches City have not lost to the Blues.

  • LCFC 1-1 Spurs. UPSET of the weekend came on Monday as Spurs DOMINATED the 1H at King Power Stadium in Leicester only to see star veteran Jamie Vardy equalize at 56’. In the first 70’ of the match the Foxes had 2 shots while spurs should’ve/could’ve had 4 goals. (Angle 2, take a listen!)

    • Later, Vardy reminded the away fans which side has a PL title, and which side doesn’t, and then reminded Spurs players they were not in North London.

    • Check out the LCFC season preview for a great story on Jamie Vardy(CS).

• Mo Salah. Mo has scored more PL goals on opening day than any other player, here was his record 9^th.

• Not 1. Chelsea WON the Champions League in 2021. 3 years later, under new ownership, and multiple managers, they had ZERO players on their squad from that team.

• Managerial Debut’s.

  • Wins: Slott (Liverpool), Hurzeler (BHA).

  • Losses: Lopetegui (WH), Cooper (LCFC), Maresca (Chelsea).

• Misses of MW1. Too many point-blank looks missed in MW1. Reminder, even the best in the world miss. Give yourself a little grace.

  • Soucek for WH, with the whiff

  • Garnacho for MU, with the whiff

• Great quick story of the MW1 in 3 parts - the game behind the game.

Current Situation 📈📉

Clean Sheets Counter & Goal Tracker

Last season (23/24) clean sheets were WAY DOWN and goals were WAY UP.

• 155 Clean Sheets, 54 below the expected 209. The PL averages 5.5 clean sheets per Match Week.

• 1,246 goals, 3.28 per match and 32.8 per match week. The highest ever in the PL.

CS will track the clean sheets over the season as well as the number of goals scored compared the last season.

32-33 goals needed to keep the pace of last season, 11+ goals short in MW1.

Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥

CS Opinion - Elite Soccer Managers make the biggest difference for their teams than managers in any other sport.

In 2019 the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference hosted a discussion on the topic How Much Do Coaches Matter. You can read the paper here.

So, why are Gaffers of high-end clubs the most influential - 4 key variables that differentiate Soccer Gaffers from MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAA etc. coaches.

• Language - truly worldwide players. MLB may have a couple non-Spanish or English speakers, but this is the norm for European Soccer and requires a bigger lift by the gaffer.

• Transfer Windows & Buying the Groceries - Being on the same page as ownership, having the right player evaluation and managing the Transfer Windows. Yes, all managers require this and must manager through trades - but multiple transfers, loans, etc. - no, not the same.

• Year Round & Player Sharing - Having to manage multiple in parallel leagues and tournaments (European, FA, Carabao, etc) brings added issues. So does having to “share” your best players with their National Teams. The complexity of managing the physical and mental aspects of your team goes way beyond the NFL’s OTA’s or MLB Spring Training. Add to this the “off-season” showcases that involve international travel.

• Tenure - The average tenure of an NFL coach is ~4+ years, MLB 3.7y, NHL 3.5y, NBA 3.2y. The average tenure of a European Soccer Coach is 1.3 years. (sportsbettingdime.com) It seems a change to the right manager fit can positively impact a club in short periods of time. Hire the wrong manager - and you can usually tell relatively quickly.

Here are Clean Sheet’s ranking of the PL managers heading into the season.

Off Island 🏝️

Rules Changes Announced

Two key changes: “interpretation” of handball and SOAT - semi-automated offside technology.

• Rule Changes - PL announcement (yahoo!sports). There are several smaller changes, for example there is a new ball being used, the Nike Flight. The two big changes on the pitch will focus on Handball and VAR.

  • New Handball Rule - The “interpretation” (yahoo!sports) of handball this season will allow for fewer penalties called.

    • Deliberately touches the ball with their hand/arm

    • Touches the ball with their hand/arm where a player has made their body unnaturally bigger - where unnatural means not a normal player movement.

  • VAR & SOAT. The goal is to make VAR more transparent and less intrusive.

    • In-stadium announcements will now be used to see replays.

    • 12 new specialist assistant referee’s will be instructed to only intervene when there is a “clear and obvious error”.

    • Replays must be reviewed at normal speed, not slow motion.

    • Semi-Automated Offside Technology - SOAT - Used in the Euro2024, the tech uses advanced tracking systems to provide quicker more accurate offside decisions.

And - controversy has already ensued.

• This no-call hand ball would’ve been called last season (most likely) and resulting in a PK for Chelsea late in the match.

• Everton had a PK overturned and it seemed the referee did NOT actually review the play. This caused a lot of controversy, but @beINSORTS_EN had a great investigative 3 min here - great explanation!

Best Bets 💰

UNBELIEVABLE. Look at this bar in LA and the size of that screen, another angle. WOW

• COSM (in Los Angeles & Dallas) - This bar is next level (COSM website) Looks like Villa v Arsenal is next up o August 24. Anyone been to it?

And just like that - a dominating Spurs performance turns into a 1-1 draw and CS goes from UP $300 to down $50.

Back for more in Matchweek 2.