24/25 Match Week 34 Preview

Happy Anniversary CONCH REPUBLIC!

43 years ago, April 23, 1982, Key West, FL seceded from the Union.

The US Border Patrol was cracking down on human trafficking and drug running through the Keys, so they set up a Roadblock at the Last Chance Saloon in Florida City, FL - the only road in and out of the Keys. This immediately caused a 17-mile traffic jam. When word got out visitors started canceling their reservations to visit the Keys. Key West Mayor Dennis Wardlow initially went to the courts in Miami, but that didn’t lead to a removal of the blockade. On April 23 the Conch Republic flag was raised over city hall, Captain John Kraus of the Schooner Western Union “attacked” the Coast Guard Cutter Diligence with water balloons, Conch fritters and Cuban bread. The Cutter responded with fire hoses. The Conch Republic was started.

“Prime Minister” Wardlow later surrendered and demanded foreign aid from the United States.

The official story line of the secession was - “…not a revolution against the USA, but a protest against the folly of zealotry resulting in the people of the Florida Keys being literally alienated as Americans”.

The Conch Republic exists as a “sovereign state of mind”.

In Today’s CleanSheet:

• Headlines 📌

• Current Situation📈📉

• Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥- Championship Check In

• Off Island 🏝️ - Europe Semi-Finals

• Best Bets 💰

Headlines 📌

• CS Match of the Week. Liverpool -380 v Tottenham +900 SUN 1030a - CELEBRATIONS EXPECTED. Liverpool need just a Draw to secure the PL title at Anfield. Expect them to push for all 3 points and kick off the celebrations early. Spurs would like nothing better than to delay the Liverpool celebrations but their current form, and the odds makers, would say that is a long shot.

• 7 Match Weekend.

• 1.1.5.2.1 Week. 1 last Tuesday, 1 last Wednesday, 5 Saturday, 2 Sunday, 1 a week from Monday.

• Vardy. Arguably Leicester City’s greatest player ever, Jamie Vardy will depart the club at the end of the season after 13 successful seasons.

  • The 38-year-old Vardy played “non-league” soccer for Stockbridge Park Steels in 2010 and just 6 years later after joining LCFC won the Premier League.

  • Scored 198 goals for the Foxes. Only Harry Kane and Mo Salah have scored more in the last decade.

  • Scored the most goals in the PL in 2019-2020, 23 goals, the oldest to do so at 33-years.

  • Set the record for goals in consecutive matches with 11 straight.

  • For fans of the club, it’s not just the play but the way he can wind up opposing fans.

  • Vardy is not done playing - “I may be 38 but I’ve got the desire and ambition to achieve so much more.”

• Wrexham. 2 points in the lead for a promotion spot - a win at home over Charlton on Saturday and then on the road at Lincoln City next week would bring them to the Championship.

What 2 Look 4 👀- Match Week 34

Played Mid-Week 🔙🔙

• Man City 2-1 Aston Villa Played Tuesday - Very even match at the Etihad where City stole points off Villa when Matheus Nunes scored at 90+4’. BIG 3 points for City in the CL race and a setback for Villa who will need some help from Forest, Newcastle and Chelsea.

  • 1-0 City. Watch Silva put City up at 7’ on a rare mistake by Emi.

  • 1-1 Villa. Watch the penalty and the PK by Rashford at 18’.

  • 2-1 City. Watch Nunes winner right before the final whistle, you can tell City want to earn CL next year.

• Arsenal 2-2 Palace Played Wednesday - Both Arsenal and Palace seemed to have their other competition on their mind as their PL finish is pretty much decided. You could say the match was more important to Palace who have an outside shot at a Europe spot.

  • 1-0 Gunners. Watch Kiwior get Gunners off to a quick start.

  • 1-1 Palace. Watch Eze with a brilliant strike at 27’.

  • 2-1 Gunners. Watch Trossard put Arsenal up 1 before half.

  • 2-2 Palace. Watch Gunners turn it over and Saliba capitalize at 82’.

Will be Played in a Future Week ⏩

• Palace +143 v Forest +187 MON MAY 5 2p - BIG match after a busy schedule of FA Cup semifinals will have a big impact on the CL and Europe races.

BIGGG DOGs 🐶🐶🐶🐶🐶🐶

• Newcastle -474 v Ipswich Town +1200 SAT 9a - Big mismatch and with Europe on the line expect the Magpies to pull away at St James’ Park.

• Liverpool -380 v Tottenham +900 SUN 1030a - See Above.

• Chelsea -170 v Everton +500 SAT 630a - Big match for Chelsea in the race for the CL. Everton have been playing well with just 2 losses in their last 14. Expect this one will be closer than the “experts” predict.

• Wolves -180 v Leicester City +500 SUN 9a - Wolves have been on a roll, and don’t think it hasn’t crossed their mind to finish ahead of the traditional powers Man United and Tottenham. The Foxes on the other hand are already back in the Championship and seems like they are ready for the golf course.

• Southampton +400 v Fulham -155 SAT 9a - Chance for Southampton to get above 11 points. Expect them to be pushing hard over these last 4 matches to avoid the fewest points in PL history. FFC still have European aspirations, can they rebound from the late loss against Chelsea.

• BHA -155 v West Ham +400 SAT 9a - Two sides struggling after it looked like they had turned things around. BHA still has a shot at Europe if they can make a run over the last 4 matches. The Hammer’s are trying to decide if Graham Potter will be the guy next season.

• Bournemouth -150 v Man United +380 SUN 8a - 1 win in 9 for the Chereries, 2 wins in 10 for United in their last PL matches. United will be focused on Europa League to rescue their season. Cherries are fighting for a potential Europe spot for next season.

Current Situation 📈📉

Hot Topic 🔥🔥🔥

HISTORY LESSON II 🧑‍🏫🎓

From 1992-2023 only 1 time have all 3 newly promoted teams gone right back down to the Championship from the Premier League.

For the second straight year (2024 & 2025) all 3 newly promoted sides have been relegated.

Why?

The data tells one story, the trend of promoted teams points per game have been declining, and significantly over the last 2 seasons. Data from StatsUltra.

Seems to be two key factors.

• Financial Fair Play has made it more difficult for clubs “without” to compete against clubs “with”.

• Over time, the style of play needed to win the Championship is not the style of play needed to stay up in the PL. A defensive approach is needed in the PL to counter the top club’s ability with the best talent. Newly promoted clubs need to change their tactics quickly from what worked in one league to what may work in another.

Let’s see how Leeds and Burnley fair next season. They do have managers with the experience of bringing teams up to the PL and heading right back down.

Off Island 🏝️

HISTORY LESSON III 🧑‍🏫🎓

Champions League

In US sports there are basically 2 goals, make the playoffs and win the title. In European Soccer, winning a title is important and so is winning in tournaments, but it really is all about the MONEY. Not for profit, but for the future of the club. The more money your club makes the more you can spend (Financial Fair Play). The more you can spend the more glory for the club.

How do you make money in English Soccer…..

• Clubs in the Premier League make at least $300M more from the League than clubs in the Championship (Level 2).

• For comparison, the Championship revenue is $10-$20M.

• The higher you finish in the PL Table, the more money you make, roughly $3M per spot in the table. Finish 8th in the table, that $30M more than 17th place.

• Each club that makes the final 36 of the Champions League makes $20M. Each time you advance - to the round of 16 ($12M), quarterfinals ($14M), semi-finals ($17M), finals ($30M) - you make more money.

So, yes, even though Liverpool has basically won the title there is a lot on the line for each club in the PL.

Best Bets 💰

Stretch Run Betting Results

• MW30 - UP $138

• MW31 - UP $69

• MW32 - DOWN $246

• MW33 - UP$36

Only playing the weekend games - and ALL of them are BIG lines for the favorites.

Everton to Win OR Draw at Chelsea +132. $20

Sticking with Moyes to get a point, even at Stamford Bridge.

Newcastle to Win v Ipswich Town by -1.5 -175. $35

Tractor Boys have been playing better but St James’ Park is different, and Newcastle are in the CL race.

Wolves to Win v Leicester City -183. $37

Wolves are just better.